This Technical Assistance Report evaluates the National Accounts Mission in Mongolia. Mongolia’s national accounts statistics were found to be broadly adequate for IMF surveillance according to the most recent IMF Staff Report. The National Statistics Office is commended for having compiled the existing GDP data and for continuing to implement the current international standard. However, several areas for further improvement in national accounts statistics should be incorporated into the work program. These include the need to secure the National Statistics Office’s new institutional structure and enhance its staff’s skills mix, improve coordination among stakeholders, and upgrade the survey forms currently in use in order to compile enhanced estimates of GDP.
Some resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. Nevertheless, tapping into natural resources could be challenging given the large front-loaded investment, volatile capital flows and exposure to global commodity markets. Public investment is needed to remove the often-large infrastructure gap and unlock the economic potential. However, too rapid fiscal outlays could push the economy to its limit of absorptive capacity and increase macro-financial vulnerabilities. This paper utilizes a structural model-based approach to analyze macroeconomic impacts of different public investment strategies on key fiscal and non-fiscal variables such as debt, consumption, sovereign wealth fund, and real exchange rates. We apply the model to Mongolia and draw policy recommendations from the analysis. We find that fiscal policy adjustment, particularly moderating infrastructure investment and optimizing investment efficiency is needed to maintain macroeconomic and external stability, as well as to boost the long-term sustainable growth for Mongolia.
This paper provides deeper insights on a few themes with regard to the experience with macroeconomic management in resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). First, some stylized facts on the performance of these economies relative to their non-resource peers are provided. Second, the experience of Fund engagement in these economies with respect to surveillance, programs, and technical assistance is assessed. Third, the experience of selected countries with good practices in the management of the natural resource wealth is presented. Fourth, the experience of IMF advice in helping RRDCs set up resource funds is discussed. Finally, the main themes and messages from the IMF staff consultation with external stakeholders (CSOs, policy makers, academics) are presented.