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Mr. Rabah Arezki and Mr. Akito Matsumoto

Abstract

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Le rythme de la reprise déçoit depuis plusieurs années et les risques baissiers se sont intensifiés, notamment en raison de la montée des tensions géopolitiques. Du fait de ces risques accrus, l'augmentation de la croissance réelle et potentielle constitue une priorité. Dans un certain nombre de pays, une augmentation des investissements dans les infrastructures publiques pourrait également contribuer à appuyer la demande et à renforcer la production potentielle. Dans les pays avancés ainsi que dans les pays émergents ou en développement, il est urgent dans l'ensemble de procéder à des réformes structurelles pour renforcer le potentiel de croissance ou rendre la croissance plus durable. Les quatre chapitres abordent les perspectives globales pour l'économie mondiale, celles des différents pays et régions, les effets de l'augmentation de l'investissement dans les infrastructures publiques sur la hausse de la production, et la réduction considérable des déséquilibres mondiaux depuis le pic de 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

El ritmo de la recuperación ha desilusionado en los últimos años, y los riesgos a la baja se han agudizado, entre ellos el derivado de las mayores tensiones geopolíticas. Este agravamiento de los riesgos destaca la necesidad de priorizar el aumento del crecimiento efectivo y potencial. En varias economías, un aumento de la inversión en infraestructura pública también puede respaldar la demanda y ayudar a estimular el producto potencial. Y tanto en las economías avanzadas como en las emergentes y en desarrollo existe una necesidad general y urgente de reformas estructurales para afianzar el crecimiento potencial o para lograr que el crecimiento sea más sostenible. En los cuatro capítulos del informe se examinan las perspectivas generales de la economía, el panorama futuro de países y regiones individuales, las ventajas de una mayor inversión en infraestructura pública para incrementar el producto, y el grado en que los desequilibrios mundiales se han reducido con respecto al máximo que registraron en 2006.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.

Mr. Paul Cashin, Mr. Kamiar Mohaddes, Mr. Mehdi Raissi, and Maziar Raissi
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
International Monetary Fund
In this paper, the following statistical data of the United Arab Emirates are presented: sectoral origin of GDP at constant prices, real growth by economic sector, sectoral distribution of nominal GDP, use of resources at current prices, per capita GDP and distribution of GDP at factor cost by the Emirates, oil and natural gas production, exports and prices, average crude oil prices, agricultural production, population of the Emirates, sectoral distribution of civilian employment, pension fund operations, Abu Dhabi development expenditures, Dubai government operations, interest rates and balance of payments, and direction of trade.