The economic outlook remains positive. Growth is expected to reach 7 percent in 2015 and inflation to remain low. Substantial policy adjustment is underway to respond to slippages around the elections and new balance of payment pressures from low commodity prices. Fiscal adjustment, greater exchange rate flexibility and stronger liquidity management are essential to preserve macroeconomic stability and continue to attract foreign investment to support growth, including in the oil and gas sector where projected investments could reach $100 billion over the next decade.
Context and policy challenges. Mozambique’s macroeconomic performance remainsrobust, with strong growth and low inflation. In spite of the heightened risks from anuncertain global outlook, growth is expected to be broad-based in the medium termand boosted by the natural resource boom and infrastructure investment.Short-term policy framework. The main short-term challenge is to maintain thegrowth momentum while preserving fiscal and debt sustainability. The 2014 fiscal stanceis expansionary, and fiscal consolidation needs to be initiated in the 2015 budget torestore prudent fiscal management. While low international prices have dampenedinflation, the Bank of Mozambique should stay vigilant and adhere to its medium-terminflation target. Key structural reform priorities include improving VAT and overall taxadministration, continuing public financial management reforms, strengthening capacityfor transparent public investment management and borrowing, and enhancing thebusiness environment and financial sector development. Completion of the LNG contractnegotiations is a critical milestone for the launch of this project, one of the largest insub-Saharan Africa.Medium-term reforms. Fiscal adjustment over the medium term will be essential topreserve debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability. This requires measures tocontain current spending pressures while bringing investment to a more sustainablelevel. Structural reforms focusing on public financial management, monetary policy toolsand banking supervision, and business facilitation should be implemented vigorously tosustain growth and render it more inclusive. With foreign aid likely to decline over themedium term, increased borrowing can provide additional resources for improving bothMozambique’s physical infrastructure and human capital. To ensure the efficiency ofinvestment and borrowing, further strengthening of investment planning andimplementation, and debt management are essential.
This paper discusses Mozambique’s First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria. Mozambique’s macroeconomic outlook remains favorable and the PSI-supported program is broadly on track. All assessment criteria were met and most indicative targets, but there was some slippage on structural reforms. Economic growth is robust and inflation remains moderate. In spite of risks stemming from the uncertain global economy, growth is expected to be sustained in the medium term by the natural resource boom and infrastructure investment. Structural reforms along a broad policy spectrum should be implemented vigorously to foster sustained and more inclusive growth.
Mozambique continues to show a strong economic performance. The inflation expectations require a tightening of the macroeconomic policy mix. Executive Directors commended the role of government in sustaining economic growth by accelerating the public investment program. Engaging development partners and civil society to make the growth strategy more inclusive and allowing Mozambicans to participate in economic growth and the determination in fighting inflation is welcome. The fuel price policy has contributed to substantial costs to Mozambique’s fiscal and external accounts, and poses future risks.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
This evaluation examines factors influencing the effectiveness of the IMF structural conditionality in bringing about structural reform. It assesses the impact of the streamlining initiative launched in 2000 and of the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines. These guidelines aimed at reducing the volume and scope of structural conditionality by requiring “parsimony” in the use of conditions and stipulated that conditions must be “critical” to the achievement of the program goals. The evaluation finds that during the period 1995–2004, there was extensive use of structural conditionality in IMF-supported programs, with an average of 17 conditions per program/year.
The strong macroeconomic performance and the implementation of prudent fiscal and monetary policies and a flexible exchange rate regime have helped Mozambique to perform well under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Executive Directors advised to maintain macroeconomic stability and accelerate structural reforms to sustain rapid growth. Directors stressed the need for fiscal transparency and adopting regulations to the Mining and Petroleum Fiscal Regime laws. Directors appreciated the principles of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, welcomed its monetary policy stance, and encouraged authorities to embark on revenue efforts to achieve the MDGs.
This paper highlights Mozambique’s 2005 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria, and Modification of Performance Criteria. The performance under the program supported by the PRGF was mixed during October 2004–March 2005. All end-December 2004 quantitative performance criteria, except the one pertaining to the fiscal deficit, were met. Prospects for 2005 remain favorable, including for strong growth, a further deceleration in inflation, and maintenance of a sustainable external position.
This paper examines Mozambique’s First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Mozambique’s performance in 2004 relative to the main macroeconomic objectives of the PRGF-supported program was satisfactory. The fiscal performance through September 2004 was adversely affected by a significant revenue shortfall. The program for 2005 envisages slower growth of 7.3 percent and a further decline in inflation to 8.5 percent by year-end. The program includes additional measures to improve liquidity sterilization, including through the introduction of foreign exchange auctions by end-February 2005.
Mozambique's performance under the authorities' program during the first three quarters of 2003 continued to be satisfactory. The discussions focused on the macroeconomic policies for 2004–06 and the government's plans to address pending structural reforms to broaden and sustain growth and further reduce poverty. Discussions on structural issues concentrated on the authorities' plans to remove a number of obstacles to private sector development. A strengthened monetary and exchange rate management will be essential in Mozambique, particularly in view of the high degree of dollarization.