Mr. Marc C Dobler, Ender Emre, Alessandro Gullo, and Deeksha Kale
This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: advantages and disadvantages of different types of depositor preference, international best practice and experience in adopting depositor preference, and introducing depositor preference in jurisdictions with or without deposit insurance.
Mr. Emre Balibek, Mr. Tobias Haque, Diego Rivetti, and Ms. Miriam Tamene
This report provides guidance on using the Analytical Tool of the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS). The MTDS framework consists of a methodology, published as the ‘Guidance Note for Developing a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy’, and an associated analytical tool (AT) that can be used to assess the cost-risk trade-offs of alternative strategies to help identify the preferred strategy. The MTDS framework supported by the AT quantitative analysis helps to determine the financing strategy. The chosen debt management strategy sets out the financing composition path to meet the debt management objective(s). The profile of future interest payments and the amortizations of new debt are driven by the debt management strategy. The MTDS AT is based on annual cash flow. Although this assumption is enough for analyzing alternative debt management strategies, in some cases, particularly for countries that are heavily dependent on short-term securities with maturities of less than a year, it would be helpful to work with cash flows with higher frequency.
Sophia Chen, Mrs. Paola Ganum, and Mr. Pau Rabanal
e develop a toolkit to assess the consistency between real sector and financial sector forecasts. The toolkit draws upon empirical regularities on real sector and financial sector outcomes for 182 economies from 1980 to 2015. We show that credit growth is positively correlated with real sector performance, in particular when credit growth is unusually high or low. However, the relationship between credit growth and inflation is weak. These results hold for different country groups, including advanced economies, emerging markets and low-income countries. Combining credit growth with other variables such as house prices and the output gap helps to understand real sector outcomes. But including the financial account balance does not make a difference.
Mr. Ashvin Ahuja, Kevin Wiseman, and Mr. Murtaza H Syed
Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
This technical note is provided as guidance to tax administrations that are considering a program to enhance the tax compliance of high wealth individuals. The note explains the rationale for a specialized compliance program for this segment of the taxpayer base and provides guidance on defining the population of wealthy individuals. Advice is also given on how to assess readiness for such a compliance program, taking into account the legal framework, the political environment, the availability of the necessary data and the administration’s capacity to implement it. The note then gives practical advice on implementing a high wealth individual compliance program, using the compliance risk management model as its foundation.