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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Keywords:
Greenhouse gas emissions; Gross fixed investment; Climate change; Growth accounting
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Patrick A. Imam and Jonathan R. W. Temple
Keywords:
Growth accounting; Total factor productivity; Human capital
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dynamic Development Accounting and Relative Income Traps
Patrick A. Imam and Jonathan R. W. Temple
Previous research suggests that economy-wide poverty traps are rarely observed in the data. In this paper, we explore a related hypothesis: low-income countries rarely improve their position relative to the US. Using finite state Markov chains, we show that upwards mobility is indeed limited. Since capital-output ratios are similar across countries, and human capital is also converging, the persistence of low relative income seems to originate in the persistence of low relative TFP. We study the dynamics of relative TFP and how they interact with absolute levels of human capital, casting new light on the future of convergence.
Keywords:
Economic growth; development accounting; low-income trap; poverty trap; income trap; state Markov chains; country sample; OECD member country; relative TFP; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Growth accounting; Income; Capital productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Raising Rates with a Large Balance Sheet: The Eurosystem’s Net Income and its Fiscal Implications
Nazim Belhocine, Mr. Ashok Vir Bhatia, and Jan Frie
The Eurosystem, having purposefully expanded its footprint in recent years, confronts a period of loss-making as rising policy rates lift the remuneration of bank reserves while assets churn more slowly. This paper projects the net income of the Eurosystem and its “top-five” national central banks over a ten-year horizon, finding that losses, while large, will be temporary and recoupable. The policy conclusions are fourfold. First, the temporary and recoupable nature of the loss-making obviates any need for capital contributions or indemnities from the state, instead allowing losses to be offset against future net income. Second, it must nonetheless be communicated that fiscal impacts will be material, with annual taxes and transfers of 0.1−0.2 percent of GDP giving way to potentially long interruptions in some cases. Third, more-conservative profit distribution policies in the future steady state could help mitigate the on-off pattern of dividends. Finally and most vitally, loss-making must remain orthogonal to monetary policy decision-making, as indeed it is at the ECB. Ultimately, credibility will rest on performance in delivering on the price stability mandate.
Keywords:
Eurosystem; balance sheet; monetary policy; profit distribution; seigniorage; central bank independence; ECB Policy; net purchase; QE portfolio; selected NCBs; Eurosystem's net income; rate path; pooling reference rate; distribution policy; Income; Financial statements; Unconventional monetary policies; Central bank policy rate; Global; Europe