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Nordine Abidi, Matteo Falagiarda, and Ixart Miquel-Flores
This paper investigates the behaviour of credit rating agencies using a natural experiment in monetary policy. We exploit the corporate QE of the Eurosystem and its rating-based specific design which generates exogenous variation in the probability for a bond of becoming eligible for outright purchases. We show that after the launch of the policy, rating activity was concentrated precisely on the territory where the incentives of market participants are expected to be more sensitive to the policy design. Our findings contribute to better assessing the consequences of the explicit reliance on CRAs ratings by central banks when designing monetary policy. They also support the Covid-19 monetary stimulus, and in particular the waiver of private credit rating eligibility requirements applied to recently downgraded issuers.
Mr. Damien Capelle
This paper develops a model where large financial intermediaries subject to systemic runs internalize the effect of their leverage on aggregate risk, returns and asset prices. Near the steady-state, they restrict leverage to avoid the risk of a run which gives rise to an accelerator effect. For large adverse shocks, the system enters a zone with high leverage and possibly runs. The length of time the system remains in this zone depends on the degree of concentration through a franchise value, price-drop and recapitalization channels. The speed of entry of new banks after a collapse has a stabilizing effect.
Mr. Serhan Cevik and João Tovar Jalles
Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy like no other, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic impact of climate change, but research on how climate change affects sovereign risks is limited. Building on our previous research focusing on the impact of climate change on sovereign risks, this paper empirically investigates how climate change may affect sovereign credit ratings. By means of binary-choice models, we find that climate change vulnerability has adverse effects on sovereign credit ratings, after controlling for conventional macroeconomic determinants of credit worthiness. On the other hand, with regards to climate change resilience, we find that countries with greater climate change resilience benefit from higher (better) credit ratings. These findings, robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, also show that impact of climate change is disproportionately greater in developing countries due largely to weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note considers the regulation and supervision of fund management and equity and derivatives trading in the United States (U.S.). As one of the main destinations for household savings and a key provider of funding to U.S. corporates, investment funds play a major role in the U.S. financial system. Distortions to equity trading could cause significant loss of confidence in markets, while international post-crisis reforms for OTC derivatives have underlined the importance of greater transparency and the value of central clearing. U.S. companies have also traditionally raised more finance through equity and other capital markets than through bank lending, and so capital markets are of greater structural significance in the U.S. than in some other jurisdictions.
Ms. Inutu Lukonga
Policy makers in the MENAP region have been formulating policies and designing programs to develop small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) with a view to create jobs and achieve inclusive growth. But while the programs have helped increase the number of enterprises, growth of SMEs continues to face barriers to growth. As a result, microenterprises predominate and SMEs contribution to employment remains below potential. Partial implementation of reforms explain some of the underperformance, but frictions in strategy design also played an important role. Sustaining current reforms is, therefore, not sufficient to achieve inclusive growth. Digital technologies have potential to boost SMEs productivity and growth and economies are rapidly digitalizing, thus SMEs need to embrace digital solutions to compete and survive. Therefore, for SMEs to be effective engines of inclusive growth, a rethinking of the SME development strategy is needed that makes SMEs’ digital transformation a priority.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance report on Chile constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the Banco Central de Chile (BCCh) in response to their request for technical assistance. The BCCh is considering broadening access to its services beyond commercial banks and some Financial Market Infrastructures. The mission emphasized the overarching requirement for all central bank counterparts to be adequately regulated and supervised, to mitigate the central bank’s operational, financial, and reputational risks. Recent changes to the banking law facilitate consolidation of the banking supervisor into the nonbank supervisor. This move should facilitate equal treatment across participants and reduce the prospect of regulatory arbitrage. The new architecture should ease, though not eliminate, coordination efforts between BCCh and authorities when it comes to maintaining financial stability. By applying the assessment framework to Chile, the mission recommended some minor broadening of Nonbank Financial Institutions access to BCCh services, while noting that it should have the power to provide liquidity to any nonbank financial sector to contain spillovers that may otherwise threaten financial stability more generally.