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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 23/284

Keywords:
transparency policy; expenditure saving; literacy rate; contribution rate; tourism recovery; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Medium-term budget frameworks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: 2023 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with the Kingdom of The Netherlands—Aruba discusses that economic activity rebounded strongly. Real gross domestic product grew by 27.6 percent in 2021 and further expanded by 7.3 percent in 2022, reinforced by the recovery of tourist arrivals following the lifting of the restrictions introduced during the pandemic. The economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace in 2023 as the post-pandemic rebound in tourist arrivals wanes. Inflation is projected to decelerate with slowing domestic demand and lower international commodity prices. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. A steeper-than-expected global slowdown, especially in the U.S., could reduce tourist arrivals. Climate change is an ever-present risk through both rising sea levels and more volatile weather events. Domestically, risks to the outlook are largely related to the potential of insufficient fiscal adjustment. Increasing resilience to climate change is a priority. A concrete action plan for adaptation would help prioritize infrastructure investments that improve the physical resilience of low-lying areas.
Keywords:
CPI data; CPI survey; quarterly balance of payments; Aruban economy; price sample; IMF staff calculation; External sector statistics; Tourism; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba: 2023 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

1. Aruba’s tourism-reliant economy has bounced back from the pandemic.1 Tourism—the main engine of growth—was brought to a sudden stop in 2020 as containment measures and temporary border closures were put in place to contain the virus spread. Real GDP contracted by an unprecedented 24 percent in 2020 and both the current account and fiscal balances deteriorated. A rapid vaccine rollout, supported by the Netherlands, and decisive policy actions helped Aruba to reopen to tourists earlier than other Caribbean peers. By the second quarter of 2022, tourist arrivals had risen above pre-pandemic levels.

Keywords:
headline inflation; development fund; U.S. GDP growth; CBA survey; GDP data; Wages; Global