BACKGROUND NOTE 4: USING THE IPF ANALYTICAL TOOLKIT TO ENHANCE POLICY ASSESSMENTS
1. Policymakers can face difficult tradeoffs in managing large and volatile capital flows when confronted with financial and real shocks while pursuing their stabilization objectives. The benefits of capital flows are broadly recognized, but their volatility presents significant challenges. Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have exhibited large swings in the last two decades (Figure 1). Several periods of sustained inflows—in many cases driven at least in part by easy monetary conditions in major advanced economies (AEs)—have been interrupted by sharp reversals. Flows to commodity exporters have also been influenced by gyrations in commodity prices. Changes in global financial conditions—and attendant swings in capital flows—present particular challenges for many EMDEs, engendering difficult tradeoffs for monetary policy stemming from relatively shallow markets,1 external borrowing constraints, and other vulnerabilities. Advanced economies are not necessarily immune to these shocks either.
2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of North Macedonia