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International Monetary Fund

The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation on Bhutan explains the macroeconomic setting, economic developments, outlooks, risks, and challenges. Bhutan’s economic prospects are bright. Construction of two hydropower projects will help sustain real GDP growth over the medium term. With the exchange rate peg to the Indian rupee, inflation is expected to be in line with price developments in India. Executive Directors commended Bhutan’s prudent macroeconomic policies and political stability, which have yielded robust growth, an appreciable improvement in social indicators, and progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals.

International Monetary Fund

Bhutan’s rapid growth has been underpinned by hydropower sector development with donor support. However, fiscal policy should be tightened to address overheating, and spending and revenue reforms are needed to bolster the fiscal framework. Executive Directors suggested to adopt multiyear rolling budget to ensure debt sustainability. They assessed the need to strengthen the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA's) power to safeguard financial stability. They welcomed the comprehensive strategy embedded in the Economic Development Policy (EDP) that identifies activities that have strong job-generating potential and also promote foreign direct investment and private sector development.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the GDP growth in Bhutan has slowed from about 10 percent in FY2011 (July 1–June 30) to 5 percent in FY2013. Slower growth reflects policy efforts to contain overheating pressures in the form of restrictions on credit for construction and vehicle. Inflation has remained elevated, tracking closely that of India (Bhutan’s main trading partner). Social development indicators have improved steadily, and Bhutan is on track or has achieved most of its Millennium Development Goals. Growth is projected to recover to 6½ percent in FY2014, driven mainly by a pick-up in hydropower-related construction activities and domestic services.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Macroeconomic conditions have improved recently. Growth appears to be picking up while inflation has declined to low single digits; foreign reserves have been increasing on the back of a strong financial account; the fiscal balance has recorded a surplus in the past two years; and credit growth remains moderate. Financial soundness indicators point to a modest improvement in the health of the financial sector.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bhutan

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the GDP growth in Bhutan has slowed from about 10 percent in FY2011 (July 1–June 30) to 5 percent in FY2013. Slower growth reflects policy efforts to contain overheating pressures in the form of restrictions on credit for construction and vehicle. Inflation has remained elevated, tracking closely that of India (Bhutan’s main trading partner). Social development indicators have improved steadily, and Bhutan is on track or has achieved most of its Millennium Development Goals. Growth is projected to recover to 6½ percent in FY2014, driven mainly by a pick-up in hydropower-related construction activities and domestic services.