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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
St. Kitts and Nevis entered the Covid-19 pandemic from a position of fiscal strength following nearly a decade of budget surpluses. A significant part of the large CBI revenues was prudently saved, reducing public debt below the regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP and supporting accumulation of large government deposits.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Peru’s very strong macroeconomic policies and institutional policy frameworks have helped anchor strong growth and stability over the past several years and navigate the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The confluence of a sound inflation-targeting regime, flexible exchange rate, credible fiscal framework, reflected in very low public debt, and sound financial sector supervision and regulation have allowed the country to deploy a robust policy response to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the pandemic while sustaining strong access to international capital markets. Following the worst economic contraction in 30 years, economic activity is expected to rebound this year as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out, and the pandemic is gradually brought under control. Real GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by 2022, supported by improved terms-of-trade and a pick-up in domestic demand. The second round of presidential elections is scheduled for June 6.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
COVID-19 has taken a severe toll on Colombia’s society and economy—including over 60,000 deaths and over 5 million jobs temporarily lost in Colombia’s largest recession on record. A gradual but uneven recovery led by private domestic demand and manufacturing is underway, but services continue to be weak. While the economy had remained resilient before the pandemic owing to very strong policy frameworks, economic activity is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Georgia has emerged from its second lockdown that was imposed in November 2020 following a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases. Vaccinations commenced in March 2021 and the country is now entering a critical stage in overcoming the pandemic. The lockdowns drove a contraction of around 6.2 percent of GDP in 2020, and a recovery is expected to take hold in the second quarter of 2021.