Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Ananthakrishnan Prasad , Selim Elekdag , Phakawa Jeasakul , Romain Lafarguette , Adrian Alter , Alan Xiaochen Feng , and Changchun Wang
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 21 February 2019
Keywords: Interest rates on loans, Economic growth, Economic recovery, External sector, Real interest rates, downside risk;macrofinancial linkages;financial stability;Gar;financial condition;forecast horizon;article IV consultation;quantiles
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast...