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Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises »

Source: Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Volume/Issue: 2003/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Axel Schimmelpfennig , Nouriel Roubini , and Paolo Manasse

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2003

ISBN: 9781451875256

Keywords: Early-warning system, sovereign debt crises, sovereign default, debt crisis, external debt, debt crises, short-term debt, currency crisis, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF finan...

Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook, 2002

Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook, 2002 »

Series: Balance of Payments Statistics

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589061842.044

ISBN: 9781589061842

Keywords: liabilities, debt, payments, portfolio investment, loans, financial derivatives, bonds, debt securities, money market, equity securities

The BOPS Yearbook, usually published in December, contains balance of payments statistics for most of the world, compiled in accordance with the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual. Part 1 includes aggregate as well a...

Crises and Liquidity

Crises and Liquidity »

Source: Crises and Liquidity : Evidence and Interpretation

Volume/Issue: 2001/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2001

ISBN: 9781451841763

Keywords: Debt crises, creditor runs, short-term debt, debt service, probability, external debt, liquidity variables, International Lending and Debt Problems,

In a large panel of countries, we find that less liquid countries are more likely to default on their external debt. Specifically, for given total external debt, the probability of a crisis increases with the propo...

Crises and Liquidity
			: Evidence and Interpretation

Crises and Liquidity : Evidence and Interpretation »

Volume/Issue: 2001/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451841763.001

ISBN: 9781451841763

Keywords: Debt crises, creditor runs, short-term debt, debt service, probability, external debt, liquidity variables, International Lending and Debt Problems,

In a large panel of countries, we find that less liquid countries are more likely to default on their external debt. Specifically, for given total external debt, the probability of a crisis increases with the propo...

Four Decades of Fund Arrangements

Four Decades of Fund Arrangements »

Source: Four Decades of Fund Arrangements : Macroeconomic Stylized Facts Before the Adjustment Programs

Volume/Issue: 1995/74

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Santaella

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1995

ISBN: 9781451849530

Keywords: balance of payments, external debt, export markets, current account, debt crisis

This paper analyzes the initial conditions before Fund financial arrangements are adopted. Evidence from 324 Fund arrangements in 78 developing countries during 1973-91 indicates that there are important difference...

Four Decades of Fund Arrangements
			: Macroeconomic Stylized Facts Before the Adjustment Programs

Four Decades of Fund Arrangements : Macroeconomic Stylized Facts Before the Adjustment Programs »

Volume/Issue: 1995/74

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Santaella

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1995

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451849530.001

ISBN: 9781451849530

Keywords: balance of payments, external debt, export markets, current account, debt crisis

This paper analyzes the initial conditions before Fund financial arrangements are adopted. Evidence from 324 Fund arrangements in 78 developing countries during 1973-91 indicates that there are important difference...

Voluntary Debt Reduction
			: Incentives and Welfare

Voluntary Debt Reduction : Incentives and Welfare »

Volume/Issue: 1988/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 1988

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451949353.001

ISBN: 9781451949353

Keywords: growth rate, external debt, domestic saving, gnp, economic growth

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of long-term growth performance in a sample of 55 developing countries grouped by income levels. The evidence indicates that a model incorporating the savi...

Voluntary Debt Reduction

Voluntary Debt Reduction »

Source: Voluntary Debt Reduction : Incentives and Welfare

Volume/Issue: 1988/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 1988

ISBN: 9781451949353

Keywords: growth rate, external debt, domestic saving, gnp, economic growth

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of long-term growth performance in a sample of 55 developing countries grouped by income levels. The evidence indicates that a model incorporating the savi...

Theoretical Aspects of Growth in Developing Countries
			: External Debt Dynamics and the Role of Human Capital

Theoretical Aspects of Growth in Developing Countries : External Debt Dynamics and the Role of Human Capital »

Volume/Issue: 1988/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 1988

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451969443.001

ISBN: 9781451969443

Keywords: external debt, capital intensity, capital ratio, domestic savings, cost of capital

This paper formulates a simple aggregate growth model that is capable of assessing the impact of macroeconomic policies on the long-term performance of a developing country. The model emphasizes expenditures on hum...

Theoretical Aspects of Growth in Developing Countries

Theoretical Aspects of Growth in Developing Countries »

Source: Theoretical Aspects of Growth in Developing Countries : External Debt Dynamics and the Role of Human Capital

Volume/Issue: 1988/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 1988

ISBN: 9781451969443

Keywords: external debt, capital intensity, capital ratio, domestic savings, cost of capital

This paper formulates a simple aggregate growth model that is capable of assessing the impact of macroeconomic policies on the long-term performance of a developing country. The model emphasizes expenditures on hum...