Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to pick up, though at a slower pace than previously expected. This revision reflects a more challenging external environment, continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, and a weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa. The challenge for the region is to boost growth to create jobs for the growing labor force, while protecting against debt vulnerabilities and risks from a difficult global environment.

Statistical Appendix

Unless noted otherwise, data and projections presented in this Regional Economic Outlook are IMF staff estimates as of September 30, 2019, consistent with the projections underlying the October 2019 World Economic Outlook.

The data and projections cover 45 sub-Saharan African countries in the IMF’s African Department. Data definitions follow established international statistical methodologies to the extent possible. However, in some cases, data limitations limit comparability across countries.

Additional tables for historical and forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are posted online in the Background Paper and Expanded Statistical Appendix document: https://www.imf.org/~/media/ Files/Publications/REO/AFR/2019/October/ English/backgroundpapers.ashx?la=en

Country Groupings

Countries are aggregated into three (non-overlapping) groups: oil exporters, other resource-intensive countries, and non-resource-intensive countries (see table on page 60 for the country groupings).

  • The oil exporters are countries where net oil exports make up 30 percent or more of total exports.

  • The other resource-intensive countries are those where nonrenewable natural resources represent 25 percent or more of total exports.

  • The non-resource-intensive countries refer to those that are not classified as either oil exporters or other resource-intensive countries.

Countries are also aggregated into four (overlapping) groups: oil exporters, middle-income, low-income, and countries in fragile situations (see table on page 60 for the country groupings).

The membership of these groups reflects the most recent data on per capita gross national income (averaged over three years) and the World Bank, Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) score (averaged over three years).

  • The middle-income countries had per capita gross national income in the years 2016–18 of more than US$1,025.00 (World Bank, using the Atlas method).

  • The low-income countries had average per capita gross national income in the years 2016–18 equal to or lower than US$1,025.00 (World Bank, Atlas method).

  • The countries in fragile situations had average CPIA scores of 3.2 or less in the years 2016–18 and/or had the presence of a peace-keeping or peace-building mission within the last three years.

  • The membership of sub-Saharan African countries in the major regional cooperation bodies is shown on page 60: CFA franc zone, comprising the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and CEMAC; the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA); the East Africa Community (EAC-5); the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); the Southern African Development Community (SADC); and the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU). EAC-5 aggregates include data for Rwanda and Burundi, which joined the group only in 2007.

Methods of Aggregation

In Tables SA1 and SA3, country group composites for real GDP growth and broad money are calculated as the arithmetic average of data for individual countries, weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total group GDP. Te source of purchasing power parity weights is the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database.

In Table SA1, country group composites for consumer prices are calculated as the geometric average of data for individual countries, weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total group GDP. Te source of purchasing power parity weights is the WEO database.

In Tables SA2SA4, country group composites except for broad money, are calculated as the arithmetic average of data for individual countries, weighted by GDP in US dollars at market exchange rates as a share of total group GDP.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Member Countries of Groupings

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Sub-Saharan Africa: Member Countries of Regional Groupings

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List of Appendix Tables SA1—SA4:

SA1. Real GDP Growth and Consumer Prices, Average

SA2. Overall Fiscal Balance, Including Grants and Government Debt

SA3. Broad Money and External Current Account, Including Grants

SA4. External Debt, Official Debt, Debtor Based and Reserves

Table SA1.

Real GDP Growth and Consumer Prices

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Sources: IMF, Common Surveillance database and IMF, World Economic Outlook database, October 2019.

Fiscal year data.

In February, 2019, Zimbabwe adopted a new local currency unit, the RTGS dollar, which has become the official unit of account. Efforts are underway to revise and update all national accounts series to the new RTGS dollar. Current data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US (and RTGS) dollars. Staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates.

Table SA2.

Overall Fiscal Balance, Including Grants and Government Debt

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Sources: IMF, Common Surveillance database and IMF, World Economic Outlook database, October 2019.

Fiscal year data.

In February, 2019, Zimbabwe adopted a new local currency unit, the RTGS dollar, which has become the official unit of account. Efforts are underway to revise and update all national accounts series to the new RTGS dollar. Current data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US (and RTGS) dollars. Staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates.

Note: “...” denotes data not available.
Table SA3.

Broad Money and External Current Account, Including Grants

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Sources: IMF, Common Surveillance database and IMF, World Economic Outlook database, October 2019.

Fiscal year data.

In February, 2019, Zimbabwe adopted a new local currency unit, the RTGS dollar, which has become the official unit of account. Efforts are underway to revise and update all national accounts series to the new RTGS dollar. Current data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US (and RTGS) dollars. Staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates.

Note: “...” denotes data not available.