Abstract

Les perspectives économiques à court terme pour la région du Moyen-Orient, de l’Afrique du Nord, de l’Afghanistan et du Pakistan (MOANAP) se sont assombries. Les difficiles transitions politiques, les incertitudes régionales croissantes imputables à la guerre civile complexe en Syrie, de même que l’actualité égyptienne grèvent la confiance des pays importateurs de pétrole. Entre-temps, les bouleversements de l’offre intérieure et la faible demande mondiale réduisent la production pétrolière, nonobstant les récentes pressions à la hausse sur les prix du pétrole causées par l’aggravation des risques géopolitiques. La croissance dans la région MOANAP devrait baisser de 2¼% cette année (¾ de point de pourcentage de moins que nos projections de mai 2013). La croissance devrait reprendre en 2014 lorsque les conditions mondiales s’amélioreront et que la production pétrolière reprendra. Des risques baissiers substantiels pèsent sur ces perspectives et, ce qui est plus inquiétant, la croissance restera bien inférieure au niveau requis pour réduire le chômage élevé de la région et améliorer le niveau de vie. Dans ce contexte, la région risque d’être piégée dans un cercle vicieux de stagnation économique et de troubles sociopolitiques persistants, ce qui rend d’autant plus urgentes les actions qui doperont la confiance, la croissance et l’emploi.

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