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Abstract
The recession in economic activity intensified in most parts of the world during 1982. At the same time, however, further progress in curbing inflation was recorded in several of the major industrial countries. This progress had favorable implications for the real incomes of consumers, and the accompanying decline in interest rates improved business incentives and reduced inventory carrying costs. By early 1983, the better outlook for inflation appeared to have improved confidence sufficiently to set the stage for an upswing in production and trade. Indeed, signs of such an upswing were already evident in a number of industrial countries, and especially in the United States. The task now confronting national authorities and the international community is to build a sustainable recovery on the foundation that is emerging.
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