CHAPTER 3 Primary Commodities: Historical Perspectives and Prospects
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Mr. Amadou N Sy
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Mr. Rabah Arezki
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Thorvaldur Gylfason https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

This chapter is intended to provide a historical framework for the analysis of national commodity export dependence. It is organized into four sections, each treating one of four themes. The first section reviews the significance of primary commodities in the overall economy at different stages of economic development. The second section tracks the long-run decline in bulk transport costs and explores the implications of this for the establishment of markets with a global reach. The third section considers the 50-year wave of deep public intervention and control, in both commodity production and trade, in the middle of the 20th century. The fourth section reviews commodity prices, both long-run trends and short-run instability. The final section of the chapter summarizes the historical findings and looks forward in an attempt to provide some insights relevant to nations heavily dependent on commodity exports.

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