CHAPTER 5 Toward More Effective IMF Surveillance
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International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
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Abstract

66. In considering recommendations, the aim is not to predict a crisis, as crises and their triggers are inherently unpredictable. It is rather to strengthen the IMF’s working environment and analytical capacity to better allow it to discern risks and vulnerabilities and alert the membership in time to prevent or mitigate the impact of a future crisis. The Fund needs to cultivate a culture that is proactive in crisis prevention, rather than primarily reactive in crisis response and management. It needs to take measures to prevent or mitigate future crises, as much as to address the weaknesses that were uncovered by past crises.33 To this end, it should continuously scan for risks and emphasize vulnerabilities, rather than playing the role of uncritical enthusiast of authorities and the economy.

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