1. This evaluation assesses the performance of IMF surveillance in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis. It examines whether the IMF identified the mounting risks and vulnerabilities that led to the crisis and effectively warned the countries directly affected as well as the membership at large about possible spillovers and contagion. The evaluation analyzes the factors that might have hindered the IMF’s effectiveness, and offers recommendations on how to strengthen its ability to discern risks and vulnerabilities and to warn the membership in the future.
Acharya, Viral V., Thomas Philippon, Matthew Richardson, and Nouriel Roubini, 2009, “Prologue: A Bird’s-Eye View—The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009: Causes and Remedies,” in Restoring Financial Stability: How toRepair a Failed System, ed. by Viral V. Acharya and Matthew Richardson (Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons).
Banerji, Angana, 2010, “Multilateral Surveillance,” IEO Background Paper No. BP/10/02 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Available at: www.ieo-imf.org.
Bazerman, M.H., and D. Moore, 2009, Judgment in ManagerialDecision Making (Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, 7th ed.).
Blanchard, Olivier, 2009, “The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms and Appropriate Policies,” IMF Working Paper No. 09/80 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Borio, Claudio, and Philip Lowe, 2002, “Asset Prices, Financial and Monetary Stability: Exploring the Nexus,” BIS Working Paper No. 114 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements).
Borio, Claudio, and William White, 2003, “Whither Monetary and Financial Stability? The Implications of Evolving Policy Regimes,” paper presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium (Jackson Hole, Wyoming), August 28–30.
Bossone, Biagio, 2010, “Bilateral Surveillance in Switzerland,” IEO Background Paper No. BP/10/06 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Available at: www.ieo-imf.org.
Caprio, Jr., Gerard, 2011, “Macro-Financial Linkages in IMF Research,” IEO Background Paper (forthcoming; Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Case, Karl, and Robert Shiller, 2006, “Full House,” Wall Street Journal, August 30.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1998, “Concept Release Concerning Over-the Counter Derivatives Market,” Release No. 4142–98, May 7.
Dhar, Sanjay, 2010, “Bilateral Surveillance of the United States,” IEO Background Paper No. BP/10/04 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Available at: www.ieo-imf.org.
Frieden, Terry, 2004, “FBI Warns of Mortgage Fraud ‘Epidemic,’” September 17. Available at: www.cnn.com.
Haldane, Andrew G., 2009, “Why Banks Failed the Stress Test,” BIS Review 18/2009. Available at: www.bis.org.
Independent Evaluation Office (IEO), 2008, “Governanceof the IMF: An Evaluation” (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Independent Evaluation Office (IEO), 2009, IMF Interactions with Member Countries (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Independent Evaluation Office (IEO), 2011, Research at the IMF: Relevance and Utilization (forthcoming; Washington: International Monetary Fund).
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 1998, “Review of Members’ Policies in the Context of Surveillance—Lessons for Surveillance from the Asian Crisis,” EBS/98/44 (Washington).
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2004–2008, World Economic Outlook, various issues (Washington).
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2004–2008, Global Financial Stability Report, various issues (Washington).
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2008, “2008 Triennial Surveillance Review—Overview Paper” (Washington), September 2. Available at: www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2008/090208a.pdf.
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2009a, “Integrating Financial Sector Issues and FSAP Assessments into Surveillance—Progress Report” (Washington), January 16. Available at: www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/011609.pdf.
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2009b, “Financial Sector Assessment Program After Ten Years: Background Material” (Washington), August 28. Available at: www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/082809c.pdf.
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2009c, “Initial Lessons of the Crisis” (Washington), February 6. Available at: www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/020609.pdf.
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2009d, “Review of Recent Crisis Programs” (Washington), September 14. Available at: www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/091409.pdf.
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2010, “Factsheet: IMF Surveillance—The 2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance.” Available at: www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/surv.htm.
Janis, Irving L., 1982, Groupthink: Psychological Studies ofPolicy Decisions and Fiascoes (Boston, Massachusetts: Houghton Mifflin, 2nd ed.).
Krugman, Paul, 2005, “That Hissing Sound,” New York Times, August 8.
Krugman, Paul, 2006a, “Debt and Denial,” New York Times, February 13.
Krugman, Paul, 2006b, “Housing Gets Ugly,” New York Times, August 25.
Krugman, Paul, 2009, “How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?” NewYork Times, September 2.
Lewis, Michael, 2009, “The Man Who Crashed the World,” Vanity Fair (August).
Lewis, Michael, 2010, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine (New York: W.W. Norton & Company).
Parenteau, Robert W., 2006, “U.S. Household Deficit Spending: A Rendezvous with Reality,” The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Public Policy Brief No. 88 (Blithewood, New York: The Levy Economics Institute).
Peretz, David, 2010, “Bilateral Surveillance of the United Kingdom,” IEO Background Paper No. BP/10/05 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Available at: www.ieo-imf.org.
Rajan, Raghuram, 2005a, “Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?” paper presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium (Jackson Hole, Wyoming), August.
Rajan, Raghuram, 2005b, “The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future,” speech delivered at the Kansas City Fed Conference (Jackson Hole, Wyoming), August 27. Available at: www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2005/082705.htm.
Rajan, Raghuram, 2005c, “Straight Talk: Risky Business,” Financeand Development, Vol. 42, No. 3 (September). Available at: www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2005/09/straight.htm.
Rajan, Raghuram, 2005d, “Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?” NBER Working Paper No. 11728 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). Available at: www.nber.org/papers/w11728.
Rajan, Raghuram, 2010, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures StillThreaten the World Economy (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press).
Rampell, Catherine, 2010, “They Did Their Homework (800 Years of It),” New York Times, July 3.
Reinhart, Carmen, and Kenneth Rogoff, 2009, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press).
Richebacher, Kurt, 2006a, “The Richebacher Letter, Monthly Analysis of Currencies and Credit Markets,” July. Available at: www.richebacher.com.
Richebacher, Kurt, 2006b, “The Richebacher Letter, Monthly Analysis of Currencies and Credit Markets,” August. Available at: www.richebacher.com.
Richebacher, Kurt, 2006c, “The Richebacher Letter, Monthly Analysis of Currencies and Credit Markets,” September. Available at: www.richebacher.com.
Roubini, Nouriel, 2006, IMF Book Forums & International Seminars: Lecture and Discussion with Nouriel Roubini, September 7 (Washington).
Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee, 2000, “Reforming Bank Capital Regulation,” Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee Meeting, Statement No. 160, March 2. Available at: www.aei.org/article/16542.
Schinasi, Garry, 2006, Safeguarding Financial Stability: Theory and Practice (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Shiller, Robert, 2005, Irrational Exuberance (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2nd ed.).
Wagner, Nancy, 2010, “Bilateral Surveillance in Selected Member Countries,” IEO Background Paper No. BP/10/03 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Available at: www.ieo-imf.org.
Watson, C. Maxwell, 2008, “IMF Surveillance in Europe: Progress in Refocusing,” external consultant’s report for the IMF 2008 Triennial Surveillance Review.
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