Abstract

This chapter presents an evaluation of the IMF’s crisis management strategy from late 2000 through the collapse of convertibility during the first few days of 2002, focusing on issues and developments relevant at key decision points, namely: (i) the second review and augmentation of the March 2000 SBA in January 2001; (ii) the third review in May 2001; (iii) the fourth review and augmentation in September 2001; and (iv) the noncompletion of the fifth review in December 2001, which effectively cut off IMF financial support. It then examines separately the decision-making process, including the IMF’s contingency planning efforts. For each of these decision points, we examine successively: program design and the case made in the staff report to the Board; additional elements considered by staff and management, but not conveyed formally to the Board; and the basis for the Board decision. We then appraise the decision made, focusing on whether the diagnosis was reasonable, given the facts known at the time, and whether the decisions made were consistent with that diagnosis.