Chapter 15 Evaluating IMF-Supported Programs in the 1990s: The Importance of Taking Explicit Account of Stoppages

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on evaluating the impact of IMF-supported programs on three key macroeconomic variables: inflation, the budget position, and growth. The paper documents the importance of distinguishing between completed programs and those that terminated prematurely, showing that they have significantly different impacts on these targets. While stopped programs are associated with higher inflation and budget deficits, and lower growth relative to periods without a program, completed programs are marginally associated with increased growth three years after the termination of the program.

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