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Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
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Abstract

Contrary to expectations, the end of the Cold War has not been a harbinger of peace. There has been a proliferation of armed conflicts around the world over the past dozen years. In particular, terrorist groups have become increasingly sophisticated, daring, and destructive. More than 4 million people are estimated to have perished in violent conflicts between 1989 and 2000, and 37 million people have been displaced as refugees, either inside or outside their countries (World Bank, 2000). In 2000, there were 25 major armed conflicts around the world, of which 23 were intrastate conflicts (SIPRI Yearbook 2001).1 International terrorist attacks increased from an average of about 342 a year between 1995 and 1999 to 387 a year between 2000 and 2001.2 Most of the armed conflicts and terrorist activities have taken place in low- and middle-income countries. Between 1996 and 2000, almost 70% of the major armed conflicts, more than 20% of all international terrorist attacks, and over 70% of all casualties due to such attacks took place in Asia and Africa.

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The Role of Fiscal Policy
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