A large body of empirical research supports the notion that healthy budgetary balances are, over the long run, good for growth (Easterly, Rodriguez, and Schmidt-Hebbel, 1994). The effect of fiscal consolidation on growth in the short run, however, remains open to question as a number of studies—largely for industrial countries—have drawn the conclusion that under some circumstances fiscal contractions can stimulate growth.1 A central theme in these works is that the composition of fiscal adjustment plays a key role in determining whether fiscal contractions lead to higher growth and are also sustainable over time. These studies show that improving fiscal positions through the rationalization of the government wage bill and public transfers, rather than increasing revenues and cutting public investment, can foster higher growth even in the short run.
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Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., Perotti, R., Schiantarelli, F., 2002. Fiscal policy, profits, and investment. American Economic Review, 92, 571–589
Alesina, A., Perotti, R., 1995. Fiscal expansion and fiscal adjustments in OECD countries. Economic Policy, 21, 205–248.
Alesina, A., Perotti, R., 1996. Fiscal adjustments in OECD countries: composition and macroeconomic effects. IMF Working Paper 96/70.
Alesina, A., Perotti, R., Tavares, J., 1998. The political economy of fiscal adjustments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 197–248. Brookings Institution.
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Easterly, W., Rebelo, S., 1993. Fiscal policy and economic growth: an empirical investigation. NBER Working Paper 4499. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Easterly, W., Rodriguez, C.A., Schmidt-Hebbel, K., 1994. Public sector deficits and macroeconomic performance. World Bank, Washington.
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