Abstract

Azerbaijan has a substantial endowment of oil and gas deposits, estimated to be the third largest in the Caspian region. Oil production in Azerbaijan is projected to increase sharply starting in 2005, and to reach a peak in 2009 of 1.3 million barrels per day, or four times current production. Gas production is expected to increase in 2006 following the development of the Shah Deniz gas field and construction of the related gas pipeline, reaching an annual peak of 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2010. Even under conservative assumptions about international oil and gas prices, the expected revenue windfall to the government of Azerbaijan over the next 20 years is substantial. However, given the known reserves and production profile, oil and gas revenues are expected to peak at the turn of the decade and decline gradually thereafter, and to return to current levels by 2024.

The Case of Azerbaijan
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