VI Conclusions
Author:
Mr. Richard Hemming
Search for other papers by Mr. Richard Hemming in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
,
Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig
Search for other papers by Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
, and
Mr. Michael Kell
Search for other papers by Mr. Michael Kell in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Language:
English
Print Publication Date:
23 May 2003
Keywords:
OP; crisis; debt; deficit; short-term debt; debt variable; crisis period; Early warning systems; Currency crises; Banking crises

Abstract

A review of the theoretical literature suggests three main ways in which fiscal policy can cause a financial crisis. These are through an overly expansionary fiscal stance, leading to a lending and/or consumption boom; through concerns about sustainability, which could be triggered by news about contingent liabilities or by a shift in expectations about the government’s commitment to fiscal adjustment; and through the maturity and currency structure of public debt, which can be critical to perceptions of government liquidity, and hence increase vulnerability to self-fulfilling crises.

Cited By

Within Same Series

Other IMF Content

Other Publishers Content

  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies
ISBN:
9781589061965
ISSN:
0251-6365
Publication Date:
23 May 2003
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589061965.084
Pages:
131

  • Agénor, Pierre-Richard, and Peter Montiel, 1999, Development Macroeconomics (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2nd ed.)

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Alesina, Alberto, and Roberto Perotti, 1995, “The Political Economy of Budget Deficits,” Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 42 (March), pp. 1–31.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Allen, Mark, Christoph Rosenberg, Christian Keller, Brad Setser, and Nouriel Roubini, 2002, “A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis,” IMF Working Paper No. 02/210 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Aziz, Jahangir, Francesco Caramazza, and Ranil Salgado, 2000, “Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements,” IMF Working Paper No. 00/67 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Barth, James, Gerard Caprio, and Ross Levine, 2000, “Banking Systems Around the Globe: Do Regulation and Ownership Affect Performance and Stability?” Policy Research Paper No. 2325 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Begg, David, 1998, “Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis,” Journal of Comparative Economics Vol. 26, No. 12, pp. 669–90.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Beim, David O., and Charles W. Calomiris, 2001, Emerging Financial Markets (Boston: McGraw-Hill/Irwin).

  • Bell, James, 2000, “Leading Indicator Models of Banking Crises: A Critical Review,” Financial Stability Report, December (London: Financial Services Authority).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Berg, Andrew, and Catherine Pattillo, 1999, “Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 46 (June), pp. 107–38.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Berg, Andrew, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo, 2003, “Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?” (unpublished; Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bléjer, Mario I., and Graciana del Castillo, 1998, “Deja Vu All Over Again?: The Mexican Crisis and the Stabilization of Uruguay in the 1970s,” World Development, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 449–64.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bordo, Michael, Barry Eichengreen, Daniela Klingebiel, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2001, “Financial Crises: Lessons From the Last 120 Years,” Economic Policy: A European Forum, No. 32 (April), pp. 51–82.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brixi, Hana Polackova, Hafez Ghanem, and Roumeen Islam, 1999, “Fiscal Adjustment and Contingent Liabilities: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Macedonia,” Policy Research Paper No. 2177 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brixi, Hana Polackova, Allen Schick, eds., 2002, Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk (Washington: World Bank).

  • Brüggemann, Axel, and Thomas Linne, 1999, “How Good Are Leading Indicators for Currency and Banking Crises in Central and Eastern Europe? An Empirical Test” Discussion Paper No. 95 (Halle, Germany: Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brüggemann, Axel, and Thomas Linne, 2002, “Are the Central and Eastern European Transition Countries Still Vulnerable to a Financial Crisis?” BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 5 (Finland: Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sérgio Rebelo, 1999, “Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis,” Policy Research Paper No. 2174M (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sérgio Rebelo, 2001, “On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises,” NBER Working Paper No. 8277 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bussiere, Matthieu, and Christian Mulder, 1999, “External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies: How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion,” IMF Working Paper No. 99/88 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Calomiris, Charles W., 1998, “The IMF’s Imprudent Role as Lender of Last Resort,” Cato Journal, Volume 17, No. 3 (Winter), pp. 275–94.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Calvo, Guillermo, 1988, “Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations,” American Economic Review, Vol. 78 (September), pp. 647–61.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Calvo, Guillermo, 1995, “Varieties of Capital-Market Crises,” Working Paper No. 15 (Baltimore, Maryland: University of Maryland Center for International Economics).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Calvo, Guillermo, and Pablo Guidotti, 1990, “Indexation and Maturity of Government Bonds: An Exploratory Model,” in Public Debt Management: Theory and History, ed. Rudiger Dornbusch Mario Draghi (New York: Cambridge University Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Calvo, Guillermo, and Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996, “Mexico’s Balance of Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of a Death Foretold,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41, pp. 235–64.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Calvo, Guillermo A., and Carmen Reinhart, 2000, “Fixing for Your Life,” in Brookings Trade Forum 2000, ed. Collins Susan Dani Rodrik (Washington: Brookings Institution).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Caprio, Gerard, and Daniela Klingebiel, 1996, “Bank Insolvencies: Cross Country Experience,” Policy Research Paper No. 1620 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Caprio, Gerard, and Daniela Klingebiel, 1999, “Episodes of Systemic and Borderline Financial Crisis” (unpublished; Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Caramazza, Francesco, Luca Ricci, and Ranil Salgado, 2000, “Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises,” IMF Working Paper No. 00/55 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chang, Roberto, and Andres Velasco, 1999, “Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy,” NBER Macroeconomics Manual, ed. Ben Bernanke Julio Rotemberg (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Choueiri, Nada, and Graciela Kaminsky, 1999, “Has the Nature of Crises Changed? A Quarter Century of Currency Crises in Argentina,” IMF Working Paper No. 99/152 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cohen, Daniel, 1997, “Growth and External Debt: A New Perspective on the African and Latin American Tragedies,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1753 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cole, Harold, and Timothy Kehoe, 1996, “A Self-Fulfilling Model of Mexico’s 1994–95 Debt Crisis,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41 (November), pp. 309–30.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cole, Harold, and Timothy Kehoe, 2000, “Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 67 (January), pp. 91–116.

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo, Paulo Pesenti, and Nouriel Roubini, 1999, “Paper Tigers? A Model of the Asian Crisis,” European Economic Review, Vol. 43 (June), pp. 1211–36.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo, and Bartosz Mackowiak, 2001, “Nominal Debt and the Dynamics of Currency Crises,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2929 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, and Enrica Detragiache, 1998, “The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45 (March), pp. 81–109.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Detragiache, Enrica, 1996, “Rational Liquidity Crises in the Sovereign Debt Market: In Search of a Theory,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 43 (September), pp. 545–70.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Detragiache, Enrica, and Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001, “Crises and Liquidity: Evidence and Interpretation,” IMF Working Paper No. 01/2 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Diamond, Douglas, and Philip Dybvig, 1983, “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91 (June), pp. 401–19.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dooley, Michael, 1998, “A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets,” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 630 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dornbusch, Rudiger, 2001, “A Primer on Emerging Market Crises,” NBER Working Paper No. 8326 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dornbusch, Rudiger, Ilan Goldfajn, and Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1995, “Currency Crises and Collapses,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 2, Brookings Institution, pp. 219–93.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Edwards, Sebastian, 1997, “The Mexican Peso Crisis: How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?” NBER Working Paper No. 6334 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Edwards, Sebastian, Julio Santaella, 1992, “Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era,” NBER Working Paper No. 4047 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry, and Carlos Arteta, 2000, “Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence,” CIDER Working Paper No. C00–115 (Berkeley, California: Center for International and Development Economics Research, University of California).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry, and Ricardo Hausmann, 1999, “Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930’s,” Journal of Economic History, Vol. 45, No. 4, pp. 925–46.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry, and Andrew K. Rose, 1998, “Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging Market Banking Crises,” NBER Working Paper No. 6370 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry, Andrew K. Rose, and Charles Wyplosz, 1995, “Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks,” Economic Policy: A European Forum, No. 21 (October), pp. 249–312.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry, Andrew K. Rose, and Charles Wyplosz, 1996, “Contagious Currency Crises,” NBER Working Paper No. 5681 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Enoch, Charles, Anne-Marie Guide, and Daniel Hardy, 2002, “Banking Crises and Bank Resolution: Experiences in Some Transition Countries,” IMF Working Paper No. 02/56 (Washington: International Montetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fama, E. F., L. Fisher, M. Jensen, and R. Roll, 1969, “The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information,” International Economic Review, Vol. 10 (February), pp. 1–21.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Feldstein, Martin, 2002, “Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Overview of Prevention and Management,” NBER Working Paper No. 8837 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey, and Andrew Rose, 1996, “Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41 (November), pp. 351–66.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Furman, Jason, Joseph Stiglitz, 1998, “Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 2, Brookings Institution, pp. 1–135.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Garcia-Herrero, Alicia, 1997, “Banking Crisis in Latin America in the 1990s: Lessons from Argentina, Paraguay, and Venezuela,” IMF Working Paper No. 97/140 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gavin, Michael, and Ricardo Hausmann, 1999, “Preventing Crisis and Contagion: Fiscal and Financial Dimensions,” Inter-American Development Bank, Office of the Chief Economist, Working Paper Series (International), No. 401 (Washington).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ghosh, Atish, Timothy Lane, Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, AleŠ Bulíř, Javier Hamann, and Alex Mourmouras, 2002, IMF-Supported Programs in Capital Account Crises: Design and Experience, IMF Occasional Paper No. 210 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ghosh, Swati, and Atish Ghosh, 2002, “Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises,” IMF Working Paper No. 02/9 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gil-Diaz, Francisco, and Augustin Carstens, 1996a, “One Year of Solitude: Some Pilgrim Tales About Mexico’s 1994–1995 Crisis,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 86, No. 2 (May), pp. 164–69.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gil-Diaz, Francisco, and Augustin Carstens, 1996b, “Some Hypotheses Related to the Mexican 1994–1995 Crisis,” Banco de México, Research Paper No. 9601 (Mexico, D.F.).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Girton, Lance, and Don Roper, 1976, “Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Post-War Canadian Experience,” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 92 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glick, Reuven, Ramon Moreno, and Mark Spiegel, 2001, Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Glick, Reuven, and Andrew Rose, 1998, “Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?” NBER Working Paper No. 6806 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Goldfajn, Ilan, and Rodrigo Valdes, 1998, “Are Currency Crises Predictible?” European Economic Review, Vol. 42 (May), pp. 873–85.

  • Goldstein, Morris, Graciela Kaminsky, and Carmen Reinhart, 2000, Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets (Washington: Institute for International Economics).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Green, David Jay, and J. Edgardo Campos, 2001, “Fiscal Lessons from the East Asian Financial Crisis,” Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3 (Fall), pp. 309–29.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gupta, Poonam, Deepak Mishra, and Ratna Sahay, 2003, “Output Response to Currency Crises,” forthcoming IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hausmann, Ricardo, 2002, “Unrewarded Good Fiscal Behavior: The Role of Debt Structure,” paper presented at IMF/World Bank Conference on “Rules-Based Fiscal Policy in Emerging Market Economies” (Oaxaca, Mexico).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hemming, Richard, and Murray Petrie, 2002, “A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability,” in Government at Risk: Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk, ed. Hana Polackova Brixi Allen Schick (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hutchison, Michael, and Kathleen McDill, 1999, “Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison,” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 155–80.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 1998, World Economic Outlook, May 1998: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund, World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2002a, Global Financial Stability Report: Market Developments and Issues, World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington, March).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2002b, World Economic Outlook, April 2002: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund, World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2002c, “Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes.”? Available on the Internet at http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/data/prov/2002/042602.htm

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Jeanne, Olivier, 2000, “Debt Maturity and the Global Financial Architecture,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2520 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kalter, Eliot, and Armando Ribas, 1999, “The 1994 Mexican Economic Crisis: The Role of Government Expenditure and Relative Prices,” IMF Working Paper No. 99/160 (Washington: International Montetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kamin, Steven, and Oliver Babson, 1999, “The Contributions of Domestic and External Factors to Latin American Devaluation Crisis: An Early Warning Systems Approach,” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 645 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998, “Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress,” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 629 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kaminsky, Graciela, Saul Lizondo, and Carmen Reinhart, 1998, “Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,” Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 45, No. 1 (March), pp. 1–48.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kaminsky, Graciela, and Carmen Reinhart, 1999, “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payment Problems,” American Economic Review, Vol. 89 (June), pp. 473–500.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kharas, Homi, and Deepak Mishra, 2001, “Fiscal Policy, Hidden Deficits and Currency Crises,” in World Bank Economists’ Forum, ed. S. Devarajan, F. H. Rogers, L. Squire (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kopits, George, 2000, “How Can Fiscal Policy Help Avert Currency Crises?” IMF Working Paper No. 00/185 (Washington: International Montetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Krugman, Paul, 1979, “A Model of Balance of Payments Crises,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 11, pp. 311–25.

  • Krugman, Paul, 1985, “International Debt Strategies in an Uncertain World,” in International Debt and the Developing Countries, ed. Gordon Smith John Cuddington (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Krugman, Paul, 1999, “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises,” in International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Jr., ed. Peter Isard, Assaf Razin, Andrew Rose (Boston: Kluwer Academic Press; Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kumar, Manhoman, Uma Moorthy, and William Perraudin, 2002, “Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes,” IMF Working Paper No. 02/7 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Porta, La Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer, 2000, “Government Ownership of Banks,” NBER Working Paper No. 7620 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lindgren, Carl-Johan, Gillian Garcia, and Matthew Saal, 1996, Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • McKinnon, Ronald, 1991, The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy (Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, and Assaf Razin, 1996, “Current-Account Sustainability,” Princeton Studies in International Finance No. 81 (Princeton, New Jersey: Department of Economics, Princeton University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, and Assaf Razin, 2000, “Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities,” in Currency Crises, ed. Paul Krugman (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Moreno, Ramon, 1995, “Macroeconomic Behavior During Periods of Speculative Pressure or Realignment: Evidence from Pacific Basin Economies,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, No. 3, pp. 3–16.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nitithanprapas, Ekniti, and Thomas Willett, 2000 “A Currency Crises Model That Works: A Payments Disequilibrium Approach,” Claremont Working Paper No. 2000–25 (Claremont, California: Claremont University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994, “The Logic of Currency Crises,” Cahiers Economiques et Monetaires Vol. 43, pp. 189–213.

  • Osband, Kent, and Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2000, “Safety from Currency Crashes,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 47 (May), pp. 238–58.

  • Ötker, Ĭnci, and Ceyla Pazarbaşioğlu, 1995, “Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises: The Mexican Experience,” IMF Working Paper No. 95/112 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Purcell, John, and Jeffrey Kaufman, 1993, The Risks of Sovereign Lending: Lessons from History (New York: Saloman Brothers).

  • Radelet, Steven, and Jeffrey Sachs, 1998, “The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 1, Brookings Institution, pp. 1–90.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen, 2002, “Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings,” NBER Working Paper No. 8738 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rodrik, Dani, and Andres Velasco, 1999, “Short-Term Capital Flows,” NBER Working Paper No. 7364 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sachs, Jeffrey, Aaron Tornell, and Andres Velasco, 1996, “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 1, Brookings Institution, pp. 147–215.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Stone, Mark, and Melvyn Weeks, 2001, “Systemic Financial Crises, Balance Sheets, and Model Uncertainty,” IMF Working Paper No. 01/162 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tornell, Aaron, 1999, “Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises,” NBER Working Paper No. 7139 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Velasco, Andres, 1987, “Financial Crises and Balance of Payments Crises: A Simple Model of the Southern Cone Experience,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 27 (October), pp. 263–83.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • World Bank, 2000, Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 (Washington).