Abstract

Evaluation Report

Title Page

Evaluation Report

The IMF and Recent Capital Account Crises

Indonesia, Korea, Brazil

International Monetary Fund • 2003

Copyright

© 2003 International Monetary Fund

Production: IMF Multimedia Services Division

Cover: Martina Vortmeyer

Figures: Theodore F. Peters, Jr.

Typesetting: Alicia Etchebarne-Bourdin

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

The IMF and recent capital account crises: Indonesia, Korea, Brazil—[Washington, D.C.]: International Monetary Fund, 2003

p. cm.

“Evaluation Report.”

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN 9781589061880

1. Capital movements—Indonesia. 2. Capital movements—Korea. 3. Capital movements—Brazil. 4. International Monetary Fund—Evaluation. I. International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office.

HG3891.I45 2003

Price: US$25.00

Please send orders to:

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Internet: http://www.imf.org

Contents

  • Foreword

  • Abbreviations and Acronyms

  • The IMF and Recent Capital Account Crises: Indonesia, Korea, Brazil

  • Executive Summary

  • Main Report

  • 1 Introduction

  • 2 The Three Crisis Cases

    • Indonesia

    • Korea

    • Brazil

  • 3 Precrisis Surveillance

    • The Diagnosis Role of Surveillance

    • The Impact of Surveillance

    • The Role of Transparency

    • Recent Initiatives and Further Steps to Strengthen Surveillance

  • 4 Program Design and Implementation

    • Macroeconomic Framework and Projections

    • Fiscal Policy

    • Monetary Policy

    • Official Financing and Private Sector Involvement

    • Bank Closure and Restructuring

    • Structural Conditionality

    • Communications Strategy to Enhance Ownership and Credibility

  • 5 Internal Governance

    • Human Resource Management

    • The Role of Major Shareholders and the Executive Board

    • The Relations with Other International Financial Institutions

  • 6 Conclusions and Recommendations

    • Conclusions

    • Recommendations

  • Appendix 1. The IMF’s Financial Arrangements with Three Crisis Countries, 1997–2002

  • Appendix 2. List of Interviewees

  • Box

    • 4.1. Conditionality for Structural Reforms in an IMF-Supported Program

  • Figures

    • 2.1. Indonesia, Korea, and Brazil: Exchange Rate Movements Against the U.S. Dollar Under IMF-Supported Programs

    • 2.2. Indonesia: Key Economic Variables

    • 2.3. Korea: Key Economic Variables

    • 2.4. Brazil: Key Economic Variables

  • Tables

    • 2.1. Indonesia: Key Economic Indicators

    • 2.2. Korea: Key Economic Indicators

    • 2.3. Brazil: Key Economic Indicators

    • 4.1. Real GDP and Investment Projections and Outturn in Crisis Countries

    • 4.2. Real Interest Rates in Selected Countries

    • 4.3. Official Financing Assumed in Initial IMF-Supported Programs

  • Annexes

  • 1 Indonesia

    • Introduction

    • Precrisis Surveillance

    • Program Design

    • The Mode of Operations

    • Conclusions

    • Appendix A1.1. Indonesia: Selected Conditionality Under IMF-Supported Programs: Evolution and Implementation, 1997–98

    • Appendix A1.2. Indonesia: Timeline of Major Events

  • 2 Korea

    • Introduction

    • Precrisis Surveillance

    • Program Design

    • Program Financing and the Debt Rollover

    • Conclusions

    • Appendix. Korea: Timeline of Major Events

  • 3 Brazil

    • Introduction

    • Precrisis Surveillance

    • Program Design

    • Conclusions

    • Appendix A3.1. Brazil: Selected Conditionality Under IMF-Supported Programs, 1998–2000

    • Appendix A3.2. Brazil: Timeline of Major Events

  • Annex Boxes

    • A1.1. Indonesia: Was Monetary Policy Tight?

    • A2.1. Merchant Banks in Korea

    • A2.2. The IMF-Supported Program in Korea

    • A2.3. Recent Studies on the Impact of High Interest Rate Policy in Korea

    • A3.1. Brazil: The Real Plan

    • A3.2. Brazil: The Evolution of Exchange Rate Policy

  • Annex Figures

    • A1.1. Indonesia: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

    • A1.2. Indonesia: Monthly Nominal Interest Rates

    • A1.3. Indonesia: Monthly Real Interest Rates

    • A1.4. Indonesia: Daily Movements of the Rupiah–U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate

    • A1.5. Indonesia: Base Money Outcomes and Targets Under IMF-Supported Programs

    • A2.1. Won–U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and Korean Equity Prices

    • A2.2. Korean and Emerging Market Borrowing Spreads

    • A2.3. Won–U.S. Dollar Spot and Forward Rates

    • A2.4. Korea: Overnight Call Money Rate and Inflation

    • A2.5. Daily Volatility of U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Korean Won, Japanese Yen, and Deutsche Mark

    • A3.1. Brazil: Real Effective Exchange Rate

    • A3.2. Brazil: Foreign Exchange Reserves

    • A3.3. Brazil and Emerging Markets Bond Index Spreads

    • A3.4. Brazil: Debt Sustainability Projections

    • A3.5. Brazil: Composition of Federal Domestic Securities

    • A3.6. Short-Term Interest Rate and Real–U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate

  • Annex Tables

    • A1.1. Indonesia: Fiscal Outcomes and Targets

    • A1.2. Indonesia: Balance of Payments Projections and Outcomes

    • A2.1. Korea Balance of Payments and Financing Requirements

    • A3.1. Brazil: Fiscal Developments

    • A3.2. Brazil: Factors Affecting Net Public Debt

    • A3.3. Brazil: Financing Assumptions and Outturns

    • A3.4. Brazil: Macroeconomic Projections

  • Bibliography

  • Memorandum from First Deputy Managing Director, Statement by Managing Director, IMF Staff Response, and Summing Up of IMF Executive Board Discussion by Acting Chair

  • Memorandum from First Deputy Managing Director

  • Statement by Managing Director

  • IMF Staff Response

  • Summing Up of IMF Executive Board Discussion by Acting Chair

The following symbols have been used throughout this report:

– between years or months (e.g. 2000–01 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;

/ between years (e.g. 2000/01) to indicate a fiscal (financial year).

“Billion” means a thousand million.

Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.

Some of the documents cited and referenced in this report were not available to the public at the time of publication of this report. Thus, they have not been listed in the bibliography. However, under the current policy on public access to the IMF’s archives, some of these documents will become available five years after their issuance. They may be referenced as EBS/YY/NN and SM/YY/NN, where EBS and SM indicate the series and YY indicates the year of issue. Certain other documents are to become available ten or twenty years after their issuance depending on the series.

Foreword

This report, The IMF and Recent Capital Account Crises, is the second evaluation report produced by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO). The report focuses on the role of the IMF in three recent currency crises in Indonesia (1997–98), Korea (1997–98), and Brazil (1998–99).

The three cases exemplify the new type of balance of payments crisis, characterized by a sudden reversal of capital flows, which are increasingly seen as posing special risks for emerging market countries. All three cases have been the subject of considerable debate both within and outside the IMF and, in revisiting these episodes, this report covers ground that will be familiar to many readers. However, it also brings a fresh perspective because of the IEO’s access to internal IMF documents which cast new light on various aspects of each crisis, both in the buildup to the crisis and in the crisis management phase.

The primary purpose of the evaluation, in keeping with the IEO’s mandate, is to draw lessons for the future. The report therefore recommends a number of steps aimed at making the IMF’s surveillance and program design more effective in the prevention and management of future capital account crises. The report recognizes that many important lessons have already been learned from the cases studied and a number of changes have been made in IMF procedures and policies. The recommendations in the IEO report seek to build on the many steps already taken.

The preparation of the report followed the IEO’s established procedures. A draft issues paper was posted for comments on the IEO’s website (www.imf.org/ieo) and was later revised, on the basis of inputs from a range of groups and individuals, to form the final terms of reference for the evaluation. This was posted on the website and interested parties were invited to submit material relevant to items included in the terms of reference. Several seminars were held to interact with outside experts and stakeholders and comments on early drafts were obtained from staff. The final IEO report, as approved by the Director, was submitted to management for comments and also circulated simultaneously to Executive Directors. The report was discussed in the Executive Board on May 30, 2003, along with comments from management and staff.

In line with IEO procedures, the report, as discussed in the Board, is being published along with the Summing Up of the Executive Board discussion by the Acting Chair and the statements by management and staff to the Board. The staff statement draws attention to positive developments in Indonesia and Brazil in the period following the end of the programs covered by this report. The IEO was precluded from evaluating these developments because our mandate does not allow us to review ongoing programs.

Montek S. Ahluwalia

Director

Independent Evaluation Office

The IMF and Capital Account Crises: Indonesia, Korea, Brazil

The report was prepared by a team headed by Shinji Takagi and including Ali Mansoor, Kevin Barnes, and Benjamin Cohen. The team was assisted by Afonso Bevilaqua, Stephen Grenville, Mohamad Ikhsan, Jai-won Ryou, and Takashi Shiraishi; sections of the report have also benefited from comments and other inputs from Jeffrey Frankel, Takatoshi Ito, Yung Chul Park, and David Peretz. However, the final judgments are the responsibility of the IEO alone. Research assistance from Misa Takebe, Shauqie Azar, Minkyung Kim, and Leandro Rothmuller; administrative support by Annette Canizares, Arun Bhatnagar, and Florence Conteh; and editorial work by Ian McDonald and Esha Ray are gratefully acknowledged.

The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board in July 2001. The office operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF’s Executive Board. Its mission is to provide objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF’s mandate and thereby support the Executive Board in its governance and oversight responsibilities, to contribute to enhancing the learning culture of the IMF, and to promote understanding of the IMF’s work.

Abbreviations and Acronyms

ADB

Asian Development Bank

APD

Asia and Pacific Department (IMF)

APEC

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

ASEAN

Association of South East Asian Nations

BCBS

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision

BI

Bank Indonesia

BIS

Bank for International Settlements

BLBI

Bank Liquidity from Bank Indonesia

BOK

Bank of Korea

BPK

Supreme Audit Agency (Indonesia)

CBA

Currency board arrangement

CCL

Contingent Credit Line (IMF)

CD

Certificate of deposit

CPMF

Financial transactions tax (Brazil)

EFF

Extended Fund Facility (IMF)

EMEAP

Executives’ Meeting of East Asia–Pacific Central Banks

ERM

Exchange rate mechanism

FDI

Foreign direct investment

FSAP

Financial Sector Assessment Program (IMF)

FSC

Financial Supervisory Commission (Korea)

FSS

Financial Supervisory Service (Korea)

G-7

Group of Seven countries

GDP

Gross domestic product

IBRA

Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency

ICM

International Capital Markets Department (IMF)

IDB

Inter-American Development Bank

IEO

Independent Evaluation Office (IMF)

IFI

International financial institution

IIF

Institute of International Finance

IMF

International Monetary Fund

INDRA

Indonesia Debt Restructuring Agency

ITC

Investment trust company (Korea)

JIBOR

Jakarta interbank offered rate

KAMCO

Korea Asset Management Corporation

KDB

Korea Development Bank

KDIC

Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation

LIBOR

London interbank offered rate

LOI

Letter of intent (IMF)

LOLR

Lender of last resort

MAE

Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department (IMF)1

MEFP

Memorandum on economic and financial policies (IMF)

MOF

Ministry of finance

MOFE

Ministry of Finance and Economy (Korea)

NDA

Net domestic assets

NIR

Net international reserves

NPL

Nonperforming loan

OECD

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

PC

Performance criteria (IMF)

PDR

Policy Development and Review Department (IMF)

PEDT

Private External Debt Team (Indonesia)

PIN

Public Information Notice (IMF)

PSBR

Public sector borrowing requirement

PSI

Private sector involvement

RES

Research Department (IMF)

ROSC

Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (IMF)

SBA

Stand-By Arrangement (IMF)

SBI

Bank Indonesia certificate

SDDS

Special Data Dissemination Standard (IMF)

SDR

Special drawing right (IMF)

SME

Small and medium-sized enterprise

SRF

Supplemental Reserve Facility (IMF)

URV

Unit of real value (Brazil)

VAT

Value-added tax

WHD

Western Hemisphere Department (IMF)

WTO

World Trade Organization

1

Effective May 1, 2003, name was changed to Monetary and Financial Systems Department.

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