14 Balance of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy
Author:
Mr. Jacob A. Frenkel https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Mr. Morris Goldstein https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Abstract

This paper studies an experiment in which the Central Bank sets the rate of devaluation at a level consistent with other fiscal constraints and reverts to a targets-consistent rate of devaluation when the reserves constraint is binding. The results confirm previous findings: as soon as the inconsistent policy is announced, absorption increases, the current account deficit widens, and the real exchange rate appreciates. Once the crisis occurs the system returns to a steady state with a higher real exchange rate. During the transition, the current account deficit is wider and the exchange rate appreciates more, the more ambitious the (inconsistent) stabilization program is.

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