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Abstract
The recovery of global economic activity after the 1991 downturn remains hesitant and uneven. Although some industrial countries have emerged from recession, growth has declined sharply in many other countries because of extensive balance sheet restructuring, persistently high short-term real interest rates, considerable financial tensions, and depressed levels of consumer and business confidence. As a result, the growth of world output picked up only modestly, from ½ of 1 percent in 1991 to 1¾ percent in 1992, which was the third consecutive year of below-trend performance (Chart 1). World output is projected to grow by 2¼ percent in 1993 and then to strengthen by 2½ percent in 1994, but the outlook remains unusually uncertain. On the positive side, inflation has continued to abate in most industrial and developing countries.
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