Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, July 1990

By the Commodities Division of the Research Department

© 1990 International Monetary Fund

ISBN 1-55775-146-3

ISSN 1010-2736

Library of Congress catalog card number: 89-645516

Price: US$15.00

(US$10.00 for university faculty members and students)

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External Relations Department, Publication Services

International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A.

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Contents

• Preface

• I. Market Developments and Outlook for Non-Fuel Primary Commodities

  • Prices

  • Export Earnings

  • International Cooperation

  • Outlook

• II. Food Commodities

  • Cereals

  • Vegetable Oils and Protein Meals

  • Sugar

• III. Beverages

  • Coffee

  • Tea

  • Cocoa

• IV. Agricultural Raw Materials

  • Cotton

  • Hardwood

  • Natural Rubber

• V. Minerals and Metals

• Statistical Appendix

• TABLES

• Section

• I. 1. Movements in Commodity Prices and Related Economic Indicators, 1983–89

  • 2. Export Earnings from Nineteen Major Non-Fuel Primary Commodities, 1983–89

  • 3. Indices of Aggregate Earnings, Volumes, and Unit Values for Nineteen Major Non-Fuel Primary Commodities, 1983–89

  • 4. Developing Countries: Annual Changes in Export Earnings by Volume and Unit Value, 1983–89

• II. 5. Movements in Prices of Food Commodities and Related Economic Indicators, 1983–89

• III. 6. Movements in Prices of Beverages and Related Economic Indicators, 1983–89

• IV. 7. Movements in Prices of Agricultural Raw Materials and Related Economic Indicators, 1983–89

• V. 8. Movements in Prices of Minerals and Metals and Related Economic Indicators, 1983–89

• Appendix

  • 1. Non-Fuel Primary Commodities: Indices of Prices in SDRs and Major Currencies, 1970–First Quarter 1990

  • 2. Non-Fuel Primary Commodities: Indices of Prices in SDRs and U.S. Dollars for Commodity Exports of Industrial Countries and of Developing Countries, 1970–First Quarter 1990

  • 3. Petroleum: Indices of Prices in SDRs and Major Currencies, 1970–First Quarter 1990

  • 4. Petroleum: Prices in SDRs and U.S. Dollars, 1979–First Quarter 1990

  • 5. Cereals: Prices in SDRs and U.S. Dollars, 1979–First Quarter 1990

  • 6. Vegetable Oils and Protein Meals: Prices in SDRs and U.S. Dollars, 1979–First Quarter 1990

  • 7. Sugar, Bananas, and Meat: Prices in SDRs and U.S. Dollars, 1979–First Quarter 1990

  • 8. Beverages: Prices in SDRs and U.S. Dollars, 1979–First Quarter 1990

  • 9. Agricultural Raw Materials: Prices in SDRs and U.S. Dollars, 1979–First Quarter 1990

  • 10. Minerals and Metals: Prices in SDRs and U.S. Dollars, 1979–First Quarter 1990

• CHARTS Section

• I. 1. Non-Fuel Primary Commodities, Petroleum, and Manufactures: Indices of Prices, First Quarter 1970–First Quarter 1990

  • 2. Groups of Non-Fuel Primary Commodities: Indices of Prices in SDRs, January 1980–March 1990

  • 3. Groups of Non-Fuel Primary Commodities: Indices of Prices in Real Terms and of Beginning Stocks Measured in Months of Consumption, 1980–90

• II. 4. Food Commodities: Indices of Prices in SDRs, January 1980–March 1990

• III. 5. Beverages: Indices of Prices in SDRs, January 1980–March 1990

• IV. 6. Agricultural Raw Materials: Indices of Prices in SDRs, January 1980–March 1990

• V. 7. Minerals and Metals: Indices of Prices in SDRs, January 1980–March 1990

Preface

This study analyzes market developments for non-fuel primary commodities in 1989 and provides an outlook for these commodities in the near and medium term. This report focuses on the major non-fuel primary commodities traded in international markets; the International Monetary Fund has published similar studies annually since 1986. In addition, the Fund examines developments in non-fuel primary commodities in the broader context of its World Economic Outlook, which also contains a detailed assessment of the world oil situation.

The staff of the Commodities Division of the Research Department has prepared this study and has benefited from comments made by other Fund staff members and from the editing of Sheila Meehan of the External Relations Department. The analyses undertaken and the projections made are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Fund. The study is based on information available through May 1990.

It should be noted that the term “country” used in this report does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. The term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.