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Abstract
Since 1973, the growth of international trade has been slower and more uneven than in the previous two decades, and there have been significant shifts in the structure of trade (Table 1). During 1963–73, world exports (in volume terms) increased every year, at an average rate of 8½ per cent. During 1974–81, there was a striking variation in annual growth rates, ranging from a decline of 3 per cent to an increase of 11 per cent; on average, exports grew by 3½ per cent annually. In 1980–81, export growth was negligible (0.5 per cent a year). On the assumption that there will be no increase in protectionism, the April 1982 World Economic Outlook by the Fund staff projected a modest increase of 2 per cent in world trade in 1982 and an average growth of between 4 and 5 per cent annually in the subsequent years up to 1986. Thus, it is evident that the dynamism that was characteristic of international trade in the 1960s and early 1970s is unlikely to be restored under the central assumption of unchanged policies.
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