Back Matter
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Language:
English
Keywords:
WEO; economy; emerging market; inflation expectation; commodity exporter; commodity market development; advanced economy; U.S. dollar; inflation goal; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Imports; Migration; Commodity prices; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; North Africa; Asia and Pacific
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Abstract

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises seven sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, Classification of Countries, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

Statistical Appendix

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises seven sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, Classification of Countries, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2016–17 and the medium-term scenario for 2018–21 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of the changes to the database and statistical tables since the April 2016 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The third section provides a general description of the data and the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The fourth section summarizes selected key information for each country. The classification of countries in the various groups presented in the WEO is summarized in the fifth section. The sixth section provides information on methods and reporting standards for the member countries’ national account and government finance indicators included in the report.

The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. (Statistical Appendix A is included here; Statistical Appendix B is available online.) Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through September 16, 2016. The figures for 2016 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; because they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

Assumptions

Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels measured during the period July 22 to August 19, 2016. For 2016 and 2017, these assumptions imply average U.S. dollar/special drawing right (SDR) conversion rates of 1.398 and 1.403 (the Chinese renminbi, which became an SDR currency on October 1, 2016, is excluded from the calculations), U.S. dollar/euro conversion rates of 1.117 and 1.127, and yen/U.S. dollar conversion rates of 106.8 and 99.9, respectively.

It is assumed that the price of oil will average $42.96 a barrel in 2016 and $50.64 a barrel in 2017.

Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected economies are described in Box A1.

With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U.S. dollar deposits will average 1.0 percent in 2016 and 1.3 percent in 2017, that three-month euro deposits will average −0.3 percent in 2016 and −0.4 percent in 2017, and that six-month yen deposits will average 0.0 percent in 2016 and −0.1 percent in 2017.

As a reminder, with respect to introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member countries adopting the euro are as follows:

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Established on January 1, 2008.

Established on January 1, 2011.

Established on January 1, 2001.

Established on January 1, 2014.

Established on January 1, 2015.

Established on January 1, 2009.

Established on January 1, 2007.

See Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO for details on how the conversion rates were established.

What’s New

No changes have been introduced for the October 2016 WEO database.

Data and Conventions

Data and projections for 191 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database. The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the compilation of national statistics, including analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

Most countries’ macroeconomic data presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 1993 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA). The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (MFSM 2000), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—have been or are being aligned with the SNA 2008. These standards reflect the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions, financial sector stability, and public sector fiscal positions. The process of adapting country data to the new standards begins in earnest when the manuals are released. However, full concordance with the manuals is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data; hence, the WEO estimates are only partially adapted to these manuals. Nonetheless, for many countries the impact, on major balances and aggregates, of conversion to the updated standards will be small. Many other countries have partially adopted the latest standards and will continue implementation over a period of years.1

Composite data for country groups in the WEO are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.2 Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply:

  • Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.

  • Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.3

  • Unless noted otherwise, composites for all sectors for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions. Annual data are not adjusted for calendar-day effects. For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.

  • Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.

  • Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

  • Composites relating to external sector statistics are sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars.

  • Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

  • Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.

  • Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Table F, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.

For some countries, the figures for 2015 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Please refer to Table G, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.

Country Notes

  • On February 1, 2013, the IMF issued a declaration of censure, and since then has called on Argentina to implement specified actions to address the quality of its official GDP data. The new government that took office in December 2015 released a revised GDP series on June 29, 2016. At the IMF Executive Board meeting that took place on August 31, 2016, the revised series was considered to be in line with international standards.

  • The consumer price data for Argentina before December 2013 reflect the consumer price index (CPI) for the Greater Buenos Aires Area (CPI-GBA), while from December 2013 to October 2015 the data reflect the national CPI (IPCNu). The new government that took office in December 2015 discontinued the IPCNu, stating that it was flawed, and released a new CPI for the Greater Buenos Aires Area on June 15, 2016. Given the differences in geographical coverage, weights, sampling, and methodology of these series, the average CPI inflation for 2014, 2015, and 2016 and end-of-period inflation for 2015 are not reported in the October 2016 World Economic Outlook. On February 1, 2013, the IMF issued a declaration of censure and since then has called on Argentina to implement specified actions to address the quality of its official CPI data. At the meeting that took place on August 31, 2016, the IMF Executive Board noted the important progress made in strengthening the accuracy of the CPI data. The Managing Director will report to the Executive Board on this issue again by November 15, 2016.

  • Argentina’s authorities discontinued the publication of labor market data in December 2015 and released new series starting in the second quarter of 2016.

  • Argentina’s and Venezuelas consumer prices are excluded from all WEO group aggregates.

  • The series from which the nominal exchange rate assumptions are calculated are not made public for Egypt because the nominal exchange rate is a market-sensitive issue in Egypt.

  • India’s growth rates of real GDP calculated from 1998 to 2011 are as per national accounts with base year 2004/05, and thereafter are as per national accounts with base year 2011/12.

  • Because of the ongoing IMF program with Pakistan, the series from which nominal exchange rate assumptions are calculated are not made public—the nominal exchange rate is a market-sensitive issue in Pakistan.

  • Data for Syria are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.

  • Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela is complicated by the absence of Article IV consultations since 2004 and delays in the publication of key economic data. General government revenue (1) includes the IMF staff’s estimated foreign exchange profits transferred from the central bank to the government (buying U.S. dollars at the most appreciated rate and selling at more depreciated rates in a multitier exchange rate system) and (2) excludes the IMF staff’s estimated revenue from PDVSA’s sale of PetroCaribe assets to the central bank.

Classification of Countries

Summary of the Country Classification

The country classification in the WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies.4 This classification is not based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, and it has evolved over time. The objective is to facilitate analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful method of organizing data. Table A provides an overview of the country classification, showing the number of countries in each group by region and summarizing some key indicators of their relative size (GDP valued by purchasing power parity, total exports of goods and services, and population).

Some countries remain outside the country classification and therefore are not included in the analysis. Anguilla, Cuba, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and Montserrat are examples of countries that are not IMF members, and their economies therefore are not monitored by the IMF. Somalia is omitted from the emerging market and developing economies group composites because of data limitations.

Table A.

Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20151

(Percent of total for group or world)

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The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity valuation of economies’ GDP. The number of economies comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Syria is omitted from the source of export earnings and South Sudan and Syria are omitted from the net external position group composites because of insufficient data.

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

Advanced Economies

The 39 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP based on market exchange rates—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies often referred to as the Group of Seven (G7). The members of the euro area are also distinguished as a subgroup. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

Table B.

Advanced Economies by Subgroup

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On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

On December 20, 1999, Macao was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

Table C lists the member countries of the European Union, not all of which are classified as advanced economies in the WEO.

Table C.

European Union

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Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The group of emerging market and developing economies (152) includes all those that are not classified as advanced economies.

The regional breakdowns of emerging market and developing economies are Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), emerging and developing Asia, emerging and developing Europe (sometimes also referred to as “central and eastern Europe”), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Emerging market and developing economies are also classified according to analytical criteria. The analytical criteria reflect the composition of export earnings and a distinction between net creditor and net debtor economies. The detailed composition of emerging market and developing economies in the regional and analytical groups is shown in Tables D and E.

Table D.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings

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Turkmenistan, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Table E.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries

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Dot (star) indicates that the country is a net creditor (net debtor).

Dot instead of star indicates that the country has reached the completion point.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

South Sudan and Syria are omitted from the net external position group composite for lack of a fully developed database.

The analytical criterion source of export earnings distinguishes between categories fuel (Standard International Trade Classification [SITC] 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized into one of these groups when their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2011 and 2015.

The financial criteria focus on net creditor economies, net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and low-income developing countries (LIDCs). Economies are categorized as net debtors when their latest net international investment position, where available, was less than zero or their current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available data) to 2015 were negative. Net debtor economies are further differentiated on the basis of experience with debt servicing.5

The HIPC group comprises the countries that are or have been considered by the IMF and the World Bank for participation in their debt initiative known as the HIPC Initiative, which aims to reduce the external debt burdens of all the eligible HIPCs to a “sustainable” level in a reasonably short period of time.6 Many of these countries have already benefited from debt relief and have graduated from the initiative.

The LIDCs are countries that were designated as eligible to use the IMF’s concessional financing resources under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) in the 2013 PRGT eligibility review and had a level of per capita gross national income less than the PRGT income graduation threshold for non–small states (that is, twice the World Bank International Development Association operational threshold, or US$2,390 in 2011 as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas method) and Zimbabwe.

Table F.

Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods1

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Unless noted otherwise, all data refer to calendar years.

Table G.

Key Data Documentation

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Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual (number following abbreviation signifies edition); CPI = consumer price index; ESA = European System of National and Regional Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts.

CB = Central Bank; FEO = Foreign Exchange Office; GAD = General Administration Department; IEO = International Economic Organization; MEP = Ministry of Economy, Planning, Commerce, and/or Development; MoF = Ministry of Finance and/or Treasury; NSO = National Statistics Office; PFTAC = Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre.

National accounts base year is the period with which other periods are compared and the period for which prices appear in the denominators of the price relationships used to calculate the index.

Use of chain-weighted methodology allows countries to measure GDP growth more accurately by reducing or eliminating the downward biases in volume series built on index numbers that average volume components using weights from a year in the moderately distant past.

For some countries, the structures of government consist of a broader coverage than specified for the general government. Coverage: BCG = Budgetary Central Government; CG = Central Government; EUA = Extrabudgetary Units/Accounts; LG = Local Government; MPC = Monetary Public Corporation, including Central Bank; NMPC = Nonmonetary Financial Public Corporations; NFPC = Nonfinancial Public Corporations; SG = State Government; SS = Social Security Funds; TG = Territorial Governments.

Accounting Standard: A = accrual accounting; C = cash accounting; CB = commitments basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.

Nominal GDP is not measured in the same way as real GDP.