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Abstract
The global recovery continues but the momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer-than-expected supply disruptions, further feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex.
Supplementary Materials
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Chapter 2 Inflation Scares - Online Annex
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Chapter 2 Inflation Scares - Data
Contributor Notes
The authors of this chapter are Francesca Caselli (co-lead), Sonali Das, Christofer Koch, Prachi Mishra (co-lead), and Philippe Wingender, with contributions from Chunya Bu and support from Youyou Huang and Cynthia Nyakeri. Swapnil Agarwal and Mattia Coppo also provided data support. The chapter benefited from discussions with Rodrigo Valdés and from comments by internal seminar participants and reviewers. Olivier Coibion provided valuable guidance and suggestions.
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