Abstract

Country name

Country Abbreviations

Code

Country name

AFG

Afghanistan

AGO

Angola

ALB

Albania

ARE

United Arab Emirates

ARG

Argentina

ARM

Armenia

ATG

Antigua and Barbuda

AUS

Australia

AUT

Austria

AZE

Azerbaijan

BDI

Burundi

BEL

Belgium

BEN

Benin

BFA

Burkina Faso

BGD

Bangladesh

BGR

Bulgaria

BHR

Bahrain

BHS

Bahamas, The

BIH

Bosnia and Herzegovina

BLR

Belarus

BLZ

Belize

BOL

Bolivia

BRA

Brazil

BRB

Barbados

BRN

Brunei Darussalam

BTN

Bhutan

BWA

Botswana

CAF

Central African Republic

CAN

Canada

CHE

Switzerland

CHL

Chile

CHN

China

CIV

Côte d’Ivoire

CMR

Cameroon

COD

Congo, Democratic Republic of the

COG

Congo, Republic of

COL

Colombia

COM

Comoros

CPV

Cabo Verde

CRI

Costa Rica

CYP

Cyprus

CZE

Czech Republic

DEU

Germany

DJI

Djibouti

DMA

Dominica

DNK

Denmark

DOM

Dominican Republic

DZA

Algeria

ECU

Ecuador

EGY

Egypt

ERI

Eritrea

ESP

Spain

EST

Estonia

ETH

Ethiopia

FIN

Finland

FJI

Fiji

FRA

France

FSM

Micronesia, Federated States of

GAB

Gabon

GBR

United Kingdom

GEO

Georgia

GHA

Ghana

GIN

Guinea

GMB

Gambia, The

GNB

Guinea-Bissau

GNQ

Equatorial Guinea

GRC

Greece

GRD

Grenada

GTM

Guatemala

GUY

Guyana

HKG

Hong Kong SAR

HND

Honduras

HRV

Croatia

HTI

Haiti

HUN

Hungary

IDN

Indonesia

IND

India

IRL

Ireland

IRN

Iran

IRQ

Iraq

ISL

Iceland

ISR

Israel

ITA

Italy

JAM

Jamaica

JOR

Jordan

JPN

Japan

KAZ

Kazakhstan

KEN

Kenya

KGZ

Kyrgyz Republic

KHM

Cambodia

KIR

Kiribati

KNA

St. Kitts and Nevis

KOR

Korea

KWT

Kuwait

LAO

Lao P.D.R.

LBN

Lebanon

LBR

Liberia

LBY

Libya

LCA

Saint Lucia

LKA

Sri Lanka

LSO

Lesotho

LTU

Lithuania

LUX

Luxembourg

LVA

Latvia

MAR

Morocco

MDA

Moldova

MDG

Madagascar

MDV

Maldives

MEX

Mexico

MHL

Marshall Islands

MKD

Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of

MLI

Mali

MLT

Malta

MMR

Myanmar

MNE

Montenegro

MNG

Mongolia

MOZ

Mozambique

MRT

Mauritania

MUS

Mauritius

MWI

Malawi

MYS

Malaysia

NAM

Namibia

NER

Niger

NGA

Nigeria

NIC

Nicaragua

NLD

Netherlands

NOR

Norway

NPL

Nepal

NZL

New Zealand

OMN

Oman

PAK

Pakistan

PAN

Panama

PER

Peru

PHL

Philippines

PLW

Palau

PNG

Papua New Guinea

POL

Poland

PRT

Portugal

PRY

Paraguay

QAT

Qatar

ROU

Romania

RUS

Russia

RWA

Rwanda

SAU

Saudi Arabia

SDN

Sudan

SEN

Senegal

SGP

Singapore

SLB

Solomon Islands

SLE

Sierra Leone

SLV

El Salvador

SMR

San Marino

SOM

Somalia

SRB

Serbia

STP

São Tomé and Príncipe

SUR

Suriname

SVK

Slovak Republic

SVN

Slovenia

SWE

Sweden

SWZ

Swaziland

SYC

Seychelles

SYR

Syria

TCD

Chad

TGO

Togo

THA

Thailand

TJK

Tajikistan

TKM

Turkmenistan

TLS

Timor-Leste

TON

Tonga

TTO

Trinidad and Tobago

TUN

Tunisia

TUR

Turkey

TUV

Tuvalu

TWN

Taiwan Province of China

TZA

Tanzania

UGA

Uganda

UKR

Ukraine

URY

Uruguay

USA

United States

UZB

Uzbekistan

VCT

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

VEN

Venezuela

VNM

Vietnam

VUT

Vanuatu

WSM

Samoa

YEM

Yemen

ZAF

South Africa

ZMB

Zambia

ZWE

Zimbabwe

Glossary

Cyclical balance

Cyclical component of the overall fiscal balance, computed as the difference between cyclical revenues and cyclical expenditures. The latter are typically computed using country-specific elasticities of aggregate revenue and expenditure series with respect to the output gap. Where unavailable, standard elasticities (0,1) are assumed for expenditure and revenue, respectively.

Cyclically adjusted balance (CAB)

Difference between the overall balance and the automatic stabilizers; equivalently, an estimate of the fiscal balance that would apply under current policies if output were equal to potential.

Cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB)

Cyclically adjusted balance excluding net interest payments.

Fiscal buffer

Fiscal space created by saving budgetary resources and reducing public debt in good times.

Fiscal space

Extent to which a government can generate and allocate resources for a given purpose without prejudicing liquidity or long-term public debt sustainability.

Fiscal stabilization

Contribution of fiscal policy to output stability through its impact on aggregate demand.

General government

All government units and all nonmarket, nonprofit institutions that are controlled and mainly financed by government units comprising the central, state, and local governments; includes social security funds, and does not include public corporations or quasi-corporations.

Gross debt

All liabilities that require future payment of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor. This includes debt liabilities in the form of special drawing rights, currency, and deposits; debt securities; loans; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee programs; and other accounts payable. (See the IMF’s 2001 Government Finance Statistics Manual and Public Sector Debt Statistics Manual.) The term “public debt” is used in the Fiscal Monitor, for simplicity, as synonymous with gross debt of the general government, unless specified otherwise. (Strictly speaking, public debt refers to the debt of the public sector as a whole, which includes financial and nonfinancial public enterprises and the central bank.)

Net debt

Gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments. These financial assets are monetary gold and special drawing rights; currency and deposits; debt securities; loans, insurance, pensions, and standardized guarantee programs; and other accounts receivable. In some countries, the reported net debt can deviate from this definition based on available information and national fiscal accounting practices.

Nonfinancial public sector

General government plus nonfinancial public corporations.

Output gap

Deviation of actual from potential GDP, in percent of potential GDP.

Overall fiscal balance (also “headline” fiscal balance)

Net lending and borrowing, defined as the difference between revenue and total expenditure, using the IMF’s 2001 Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2001). Does not include policy lending. For some countries, the overall balance is still based on the GFSM 1986, which defines it as total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Potential output

Estimate of the level of GDP that can be reached if the economy’s resources are fully employed.

Primary balance

Overall balance excluding net interest payment (interest expenditure minus interest revenue).

Public debt

See gross debt.

Public sector

The general government sector plus government-controlled entities, known as public corporations, whose primary activity is to engage in commercial activities.

Structural fiscal balance

Difference between the cyclically adjusted balance and other nonrecurrent effects that go beyond the cycle, such as one-off operations and other factors whose cyclical fluctuations do not coincide with the output cycle (for instance, asset and commodity prices and output composition effects).

Methodological and Statistical Appendix

This appendix comprises four sections. Data and Conventions provides a general description of the data and conventions used to calculate economy group composites. Fiscal Policy Assumptions summarizes the country-specific assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2016–17 and the medium-term scenario for 2018–21. Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data summarizes the classification of countries in the various groups presented in the Fiscal Monitor and provides details on the coverage and accounting practices underlying each country’s Fiscal Monitor data. Statistical tables on key fiscal variables complete the appendix. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through March 28, 2016.

Data and Conventions

Country-specific data and projections for key fiscal variables are based on the April 2016 World Economic Outlook database, unless indicated otherwise, and compiled by the IMF staff. Historical data and projections are based on information gathered by IMF country desk officers in the context of their missions and through their ongoing analysis of the evolving situation in each country; they are updated on a continual basis as more information becomes available. Structural breaks in data may be adjusted to produce smooth series through splicing and other techniques. IMF staff estimates serve as proxies when complete information is unavailable. As a result, Fiscal Monitor data can differ from official data in other sources, including the IMF’s International Financial Statistics.

Sources for fiscal data and projections not covered by the World Economic Outlook database are listed in the respective tables and figures.

The country classification in the Fiscal Monitor divides the world into three major groups: 35 advanced economies, 40 emerging market and middle-income economies, and 40 low-income developing countries. The seven largest advanced economies as measured by GDP (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G7). The members of the euro area are also distinguished as a subgroup. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time. Data for most European Union member countries have been revised following the adoption of the new European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010). The low-income developing countries are those designated eligible for the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) in the 2013 PRGT-eligible review and whose per capita gross national income was less than the PRGT income graduation threshold for “non-small” states—that is, twice the operational threshold of the International Development Association, or $2,390 in 2011, as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas method. Zimbabwe is included in the group. Emerging market and middle-income economies include those not classified as advanced economies or low-income developing countries. See Table A “Economy Groupings” for more details.

All fiscal data refer to the general government, where available, and to calendar years, except for Bangladesh, Egypt, Haiti, Hong Kong SAR, India, Iran, Lao P.D.R., Pakistan, Singapore, and Thailand, for which they refer to the fiscal year.

Composite data for country groups are weighted averages of individual-country data, unless specified otherwise. Data are weighted by annual nominal GDP converted to U.S. dollars at average market exchange rates as a share of the group GDP.

For the purpose of data reporting in the Fiscal Monitor, the Group of 20 (G20) member aggregate refers to the 19 country members and does not include the European Union.

In many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s 2001 Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2001). The overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (−) of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

As used in the Fiscal Monitor, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but whose statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

Argentina: Total expenditure and the overall balance account for cash interest only. The primary balance excludes profit transfers from the central bank of Argentina. Interest expenditure is net of interest income from the social security administration. For GDP and CPI data, see the “Country Notes” section in the Statistical Appendix of the April 2016 World Economic Outlook.

Australia: For cross-country comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) (Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Bangladesh: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Brazil: General government (GG) data refer to the nonfinancial public sector—which includes the federal, state, and local governments, as well as public enterprises (excluding Petrobras and Eletrobras)—and are consolidated with the sovereign wealth fund. Revenue and expenditures of federal public enterprises are added in full to the respective aggregates. Transfers and withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund do not affect the primary balance. Disaggregated data on gross interest payments and interest receipts are available from 2003 only. Before 2003, total revenue of the GG excludes interest receipts; total expenditure of the GG includes net interest payments. Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements. Net public debt consolidates GG and central bank debt. The national definition of nonfinancial public sector gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank, except the stock of Treasury securities used for monetary policy purposes by the central bank (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations). According to this national definition, gross debt amounted to 57.2 percent of GDP at the end of 2014.

Canada: For cross-country comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Chile: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.

China: Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares—ranging from 14 percent to 19 percent, according to the National Audit Office estimate—of government-guaranteed debt and liabilities the government may incur. IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for the China Railway Corporation. Relative to the authorities’ definition, the consolidated general government net borrowing includes: (1) transfers to and from stabilization funds; (2) state-administered state-owned enterprise funds and social security contributions and expenses; and (3) off-budget spending by local governments. Deficit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed off budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles. The fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt because no time series of data in line with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially.

Colombia: Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt.

Egypt: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Greece: General government gross debt includes short-term debt and loans of state-owned enterprises.

Haiti: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Hong Kong SAR: Data are on a fiscal year basis. Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income. For cross-country comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

India: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Ireland: The general government balances between 2010 and 2016 reflect the impact of banking sector support and other one-off measures. The fiscal balance estimates excluding these measures are −10.9 percent of GDP for 2010; −8.5 percent of GDP for 2011; −8.0 percent of GDP for 2012; −6.0 percent of GDP for 2013; −4.0 percent of GDP for 2014; −1.7 percent of GDP for 2015; and −0.4 percent of GDP for 2016. Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support and other one-off measures and correct for real output, equity, house prices, and unemployment cycles.

Japan: Gross debt is equal to total unconsolidated financial liabilities for the general government. Net debt is calculated by subtracting financial assets from financial liabilities for the general government.

Lao P.D.R.: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Latvia: The fiscal deficit includes bank restructuring costs and thus is higher than the deficit in official statistics.

Mexico: General government refers to the central government, social security, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments.

Norway: Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance. These variables are in percent of non-oil potential GDP.

Pakistan: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Peru: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.

Singapore: Data are on a fiscal year basis. Historical fiscal data have been revised to reflect the migration to GFSM 2001, which entailed some classification changes.

Spain: Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be 0.04 percent of GDP for 2010; 0.5 percent of GDP for 2011; 3.7 percent of GDP for 2012; 0.5 percent of GDP for 2013; and 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014.

Sweden: Cyclically adjusted balances take into account output and employment gaps.

Switzerland: Data submissions at the cantonal and commune level are received with a long and variable lag and are subject to sizable revisions. Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector.

Thailand: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Turkey: Information on the general government balance, primary balance, and cyclically adjusted primary balance differs from that in the authorities’ official statistics or country reports, which include net lending and privatization receipts.

United States: Cyclically adjusted balances exclude financial sector support estimated at 2.4 percent of potential GDP for 2009; 0.3 percent of potential GDP for 2010; 0.2 percent of potential GDP for 2011; 0.1 percent of potential GDP for 2012; and zero for 2013. For cross-country comparability, expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditure under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States, but this is not true for countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In addition, gross and net debt levels reported by the BEA and national statistical agencies for other countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Uruguay: Data are for the consolidated public sector, which includes the nonfinancial public sector (as presented in the authorities’ budget documentation), local governments, Banco Central del Uruguay, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. In particular, Uruguay is one of the few countries in the sample for which public debt includes the debt of the central bank, which increases recorded public sector gross debt.

Fiscal Policy Assumptions

Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the April 2016 World Economic Outlook, unless noted otherwise. For underlying assumptions other than on fiscal policy, see the April 2016 World Economic Outlook.

Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. Medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. When the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.

Argentina: Fiscal projections are based on the available information regarding budget outturn for the federal government, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, budget plans for provinces, and IMF staff macroeconomic projections.

Australia: projections are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, 2015–16 budget documents, Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlooks, and IMF staff estimates.

Austria: For 2014, the creation of a defeasance structure for Hypo Alpe Adria is assumed to have increased the general government debt-to-GDP ratio by 4.3 percentage points, and the deficit effect arising from Hypo is assumed to be 1.4 percentage points.

Belgium: Projections reflect the IMF staff’s assessment of policies and measures laid out in the 2016 budget and 2015–18 stability program, incorporated into the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework.

Brazil: For 2015, outturn estimates are based on information published by the Brazilian Treasury on January 31, 2016. Projections for 2016 take into account budget performance until end 2015 and the budget approved by Congress on December 17, 2015.

Cambodia: Historical fiscal and monetary data are from the Cambodian authorities. Projections are based on the IMF staff’s assumptions following discussions with the authorities.

Canada: Projections use the baseline forecasts in the Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections (November 2015), Backgrounder Canadian Economic Outlook (February 2016), 2015 provincial budget updates, and 2016 provincial budgets as available. The IMF staff makes some adjustments to this forecast for differences in macroeconomic projections. The IMF staff forecast also incorporates the most recent data releases from Statistics Canada’s Canadian System of National Economic Accounts, including federal, provincial, and territorial budgetary outturns through the end of 2016.

Chile: Projections are based on the authorities’ budget projections, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s projections for GDP and copper prices.

China: The pace of fiscal consolidation is likely to be gradual, reflecting reforms to strengthen social safety nets and the social security system announced at the Third Plenum reform agenda.

Croatia: Projections are based on the macroeconomic framework and authorities’ medium-term fiscal guidelines.

Cyprus: Projections are on a cash basis based on the latest information on the budget, fiscal measures, and the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions.

Czech Republic: Projections are based on the authorities’ budget forecast for 2015–16 with adjustments for macroeconomic projections of the IMF staff. Projections for 2017 onward are based on the country’s EU Convergence program.

Denmark: Projections for 2014–15 are aligned with the latest official budget estimates and the underlying economic projections, adjusted where appropriate for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. For 2016–20, the projections incorporate key features of the medium-term fiscal plan as embodied in the authorities’ 2014 Convergence Program submitted to the EU.

Egypt: The fiscal projections are mainly based on budget sector operations (with trends of main variables discussed with the Ministry of Finance during the November 2014 consultation).

Estonia: The forecast, which is cash based, not accrual based, incorporates the authorities’ 2014 budget, adjusted for newly available information and for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic scenario.

Finland: Projections are based on the authorities’ announced policies, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic scenario.

France: Projections for 2016 reflect the budget law. For 2017–18, they are based on the multiyear budget and the April 2015 Stability Program, adjusted for differences in assumptions on macro and financial variables, and revenue projections. Historical fiscal data reflect the May 2015 revision and update of the fiscal accounts and national accounts.

Germany: IMF staff’s projections for 2016 and beyond reflect the authorities’ adopted core federal government budget plan, the 2015 German Stability Programme and subsequent government announcements, adjusted for differences in the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework. The estimate of gross debt includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to institutions that are winding up, as well as other financial sector and EU support operations.

Greece: For 2015, data reflect the IMF staff’s preliminary estimates of the fiscal outturn, which are subject to revision, given high uncertainty regarding potentially significant accrual adjustments. Fiscal projections are not available at this time, given ongoing negotiations with the authorities and European partners on the fiscal targets and underlying fiscal measures that could be included in a potential new adjustment program.

Hong Kong SAR: Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal projections.

Hungary: Fiscal projections include IMF staff projections of the macroeconomic framework and of the impact of recent legislative measures, as well as fiscal policy plans announced in the 2016 budget.

India: Historical data are based on budgetary execution data. Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for IMF staff assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to two years; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data. IMF and Indian presentations differ, particularly regarding divestment and license auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor categories, and some public sector lending.

Indonesia: IMF projections are based on moderate tax policy and administration reforms, fuel subsidy pricing reforms introduced in January 2015, and a gradual increase in social and capital spending over the medium term in line with fiscal space.

Ireland: Fiscal projections are based on Budget 2016. The fiscal projections are adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections and those of the Irish authorities.

Israel: Historical data are based on Government Finance Statistics submitted by the Central Bureau of Statistics.

Italy: IMF staff estimates and projections are based on the fiscal plans included in the government’s 2016 budget. Estimates of the cyclically adjusted balance include the expenditure to clear capital arrears in 2013, which are excluded from the structural balance. After 2016, the IMF staff projects convergence to a structural balance in line with Italy’s fiscal rule, which implies corrective measures in some years, as yet unidentified.

Japan: The projections include fiscal measures already announced by the government, including the consumption tax increase with a reduced rate in April 2017, earthquake reconstruction spending, and stimulus packages.

Kazakhstan: Fiscal projections are based on the Budget Law and IMF staff projections.

Korea: The medium-term forecast incorporates the government’s announced medium-term consolidation path.

Malaysia: Fiscal year 2015 is based on actual outturn. Fiscal year 2016 is based on the IMF staff’s projections taking into account the current budget.

Malta: Projections are based on the latest Stability Programme Update by the authorities and budget documents, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic and other assumptions.

Mexico: Fiscal projections for 2016 are broadly in line with the approved budget; projections for 2017 onward assume compliance with rules established in the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

Moldova: Fiscal projections are based on various bases and growth rates for GDP, consumption, imports, wages, and energy prices and on demographic changes.

Myanmar: Fiscal projections are based on budget numbers, discussions with the authorities, and IMF staff adjustments.

Netherlands: Fiscal projections for 2016–21 are based on the authorities’ Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis budget projections, after adjustments for differences in macroeconomic assumptions. Historical data were revised following the June 2014 release of revised macro data by the Central Bureau of Statistics because of the adoption of the European System.

New Zealand: Fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ 2015–16 budget documents, the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update, and IMF staff estimates.

Norway: Fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ 2015 revised budget and 2016 budget proposal submitted to the parliament. Structural and cyclically adjusted balances are based on the non-oil balance.

Philippines: Fiscal projections assume that the authorities’ fiscal deficit target will be achieved in 2016 and beyond. Revenue projections reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions and incorporate anticipated improvements in tax administration. Expenditure projections are based on budgeted figures, institutional arrangements, current data, and fiscal space in each year.

Poland: Data are on an ESA 2010 basis beginning in 2010. Data before 2010 are on the basis of ESA 95. Projections are based on the 2016 budget. The projections also take into account the effects of the 2014 pension changes.

Portugal: The estimate for 2015 reflects full-year budget execution data on a cash basis and the January–September 2015 outturn on the national accounts basis; the projection for 2016 reflects the authorities’ draft budget and the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast. Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of unchanged policies.

Romania: The 2016 fiscal projections reflect the legislated budget as of December 2015. The 2017 fiscal projections reflect planned changes to the fiscal code as of end-2015. The projections for the years beyond 2017 assume no additional policy changes.

Russia: Projections for 2016–18 are IMF staff estimates. Projections for 2019–21 are based on an oil-price-based fiscal rule introduced in December 2012, with adjustments by the IMF staff.

Saudi Arabia: IMF staff projections of oil revenues are based on World Economic Outlook baseline oil prices. On the expenditure side, wage bill estimates incorporate 13th-month pay awards every three years in accordance with the lunar calendar. Expenditure projections take the 2016 budget as a starting point and assume that, to adjust to lower oil prices, capital spending continues to fall as a percentage of GDP over the medium term.

Singapore: For fiscal years 2014/15 and 2015/16, projections are based on budget numbers. For the remainder of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

Slovak Republic: Projections for 2015 take into account developments in the first three quarters of the year and the authorities’ new projections presented in the budget for 2016. Projections for 2016 consider the authorities’ 2016 budget. Projections for 2017 and beyond reflect a no-policy-change scenario.

Spain: For 2015 and beyond, fiscal estimates and projections are based on measures specified in the Stability Programme Update 2015–18, and recently approved measures, included in the 2016 budget approved in October 2015, and the 2015 budget approved in December 2014.

Sri Lanka: Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal framework and the revenue measures proposed.

Sweden: Fiscal projections take into account the authorities’ projections based on the Budget Bill for 2016. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the 2005 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s elasticity to take into account output and employment gaps.

Switzerland: The projections assume that fiscal policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal balances in line with the requirements of Switzerland’s fiscal rules.

Thailand: For the projection period, the IMF staff assumes an implementation rate of 50 percent for the planned infrastructure investment programs.

Turkey: Fiscal projections assume that both current and capital spending will be in line with the authorities’ 2014–16 Medium-Term Program based on current trends and policies.

United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the U.K.’s 2016 Budget, published in March 2016. However, on the revenue side, the authorities’ projections are adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic variables (such as GDP growth) and the forecasts of these variables assumed in the authorities’ fiscal projections. The IMF staff data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012. Real government consumption and investment are part of the real GDP path, which, according to the IMF staff, may or may not be the same as projected by the U.K. Office for Budget Responsibility.

United States: Fiscal projections are based on the January 2016 Congressional Budget Office baseline adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. The baseline incorporates key provisions of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015, including a partial rollback of the sequester spending cuts in fiscal year 2016. In fiscal years 2017 through 2021, the IMF staff assumes that the sequester cuts will continue to be partially replaced, in portions similar to those agreed upon under the Bipartisan Budget Act for fiscal years 2014 and 2015, with back-loaded measures generating savings in mandatory programs and additional revenues. Projections also incorporate the Protecting Americans From Tax Hikes Act of 2015, which extended some existing tax cuts for the short term and some permanently. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts of key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatment of financial sector support and of defined benefit pension plans and are converted to a general government basis. Historical data start at 2001 for most series because data compiled according to GFSM 2001 may not be available for earlier years.

Venezuela: Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela is complicated by the lack of any Article IV consultation since 2004 and delays in the publication of key economic data.

Vietnam: Expenditure for 2015 is based on the authorities’ budget; 2015 projections for oil revenues are based on World Economic Outlook assumptions for oil and gas prices. For projections from 2016 onward, the IMF staff use the information and measures in the team’s macroframework assumptions.

Yemen: Hydrocarbon revenue projections are based on World Economic Outlook assumptions for oil and gas prices (authorities use $55 a barrel) and authorities’ projections of production of oil and gas.

Nonhydrocarbon revenues largely reflect authorities’ projections, as do most of the expenditure categories, with the exception of fuel subsidies, which are projected based on the World Economic Outlook price consistent with revenues. Monetary projections are based on key macroeconomic assumptions about the growth rate of broad money, credit to the private sector, and deposit growth.

Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data

Table A.

Economy Groupings

The following groupings of economies are used in the Fiscal Monitor.

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Note: Emerging market and developing economies include emerging market and middle-income economies as well as low-income developing countries

Does not include European Union aggregate.

Table B.

Advanced Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

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Note: Coverage: BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; EA = extrabudgetary units; FC = financial public corporations; GG = general government; LG = local governments; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; PS = public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds; TG = territory governments. Accounting standard: A = accrual; C = cash.

In many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (-) of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Historical data until 2012 are reported on an accrual basis as general government cash data were not available for years that preceded the IMF program.

Table C.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

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Note: Coverage: BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; EA = extrabudgetary units; FPC = financial public corporations; GG = general government; LG = local governments; MPC = monetary public corporations, including central bank; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds. Accounting standard: A = accrual; C = cash.

In many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (-) of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Gross debt refers to general government public debt, including publicly guaranteed debt.

Gross debt refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Eletrobras and Petrobras, and Includes sovereign debt held on the balance sheet of the central bank.

Revenue is recorded on a cash basis and expenditure on an accrual basis.

Data for Thailand do not Include debt of Specialized Financial Institutions (SFIs and NMPC) without government guarantee.

Gross debt covers banking system claims only.

Table D.

Low-Income Developing Countries: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

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Note: Coverage: BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; CPS = combined public sector; EA = extrabudgetary units; FC = financial public corporations; GG = general government; LG = local governments; MPC = monetary public corporations, including central bank; NC = non-cash; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NFPS = nonfinanclal public sector; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds. Accounting standard: A = accrual; C = cash.

In many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (-) of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Lao RD.R.’s fiscal spending includes capital spending by local governments financed by loans provided by the central bank.

Mongolia’s listing includes the Human Development Fund.

Overall and primary balances In 2012 are based on the monetary statistics and are different from the balances calculated from expenditure and revenue data.

Uzbekistan’s listing includes the Fund for Reconstruction and Development.

Table A1.

Advanced Economies: General Government Overall Balance, 2007–21

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see Fiscal Policy Assumptions in text).Note: For country-specific details, see Data and Conventions in text, and Table B.

Data include financial sector support. For Cyprus, 2014 and 2015 balances exclude financial sector support.

For 2015 data are preliminary. Fiscal projections for 2016–21 are not available at this time, given on-going negotiations with the authorities and European partners on the fiscal targets in a potential new adjustment program.

For cross-country comparability, expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the Imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) adopted by the United States, but not In countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States in this table may thus differ from data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.