China is in the midst of a fundamental transformation. Growth has been slowing since 2012 as the economy has been rebalancing to a more sustainable growth model. This process of rebalancing or growth transition in China involves not only lower growth but also a shift from heavy industry and construction to more advanced manufacturing and services in production, and from investment and export to consumption in final demand. This transition has profound implications for China’s trade patterns, as import intensities vary across sectors and components of final demand. At the same time, trade patterns are also changing because of China’s evolving comparative advantage, driven in part by demographics and the implied changes for the relative labor supply, as well as by increasing human capital.
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