1. Navigating Headwinds
Author:
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Search for other papers by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Language:
English
Print Publication Date:
28 Apr 2015
Keywords:
REO; background color; Sub-Saharan Africa; fragile country; oil exporter; MDRI country; Zimbabwe dollar; oil price; age population; Aging; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Global value chains; Africa; Global; East Asia; Southern Africa; sub-Saharan Africa frontier markets simple average; oil importer; oil-price decline; cost-recovery price; commodity exporter; Oil; Fuel prices; Commodity prices; Fiscal stance

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy looks set to register another year of solid growth in 2015 (4½ percent). Still, this expansion will be at the lower end of the range by recent standards, and reflects the adverse shock that has hit some of the region’s largest economies due to the sharp decline in oil prices (Figure 1.1). The impact of this shock is set to be quite heterogeneous: for the eight oil exporters, it will pose a formidable challenge and, with limited buffers, will require them to undertake significant fiscal adjustment. For most other countries, lower oil prices represent a favorable development which, however, will be partly offset in some cases by lower prices of other commodities that they export.

Within Same Series

Other IMF Content

Other Publishers Content

  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa
Navigating Headwinds
ISBN:
9781498329842
ISSN:
2071-3207
Publication Date:
28 Apr 2015
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498329842.086
Pages:
120

  • Andre, M., P. Blagrave, P. Espaillat, K. Honjo, B. Hunt, M. Kortelainen, R. Lalonde, D. Laxton, E. Mavroeidi, D. Muir, S. Mursula, and S. Snudden. 2015. “The Flexible System of Global Models—FSGM.” IMF Working Paper 15/64, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Alcalá, F., and A. Ciccione. 2004. “Trade and Productivity.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(2):489–526.

  • Baldwin, Richard. 2012. “Global Supply Chains: Why They Emerged, Why They Matter, and Where They Are Going.” Discussion Paper No. 9103, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP9103.asp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Baldwin, Richard. 2014. “Trade and Industrilization after Globalization’s Second Unbundling: How Building and Joining a Supply Chain Are Different and Why It Matters.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Baldwin, Richard, and J. López González. 2013. “Supply-Chain Trade: A Portrait of Global Patterns and Several Testable Hypotheses.” Working Paper 18957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Beck, Thorsten, Michael Fuchs, Dorothe Singer, and Makaio Witte. 2014. “Making Cross-Border Banking Work for Africa,” Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Bonn and Eschborn.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Behrman, J., S. Duryea, and M. Székely. 1999. “Aging and Economic Opportunities: Major World Regions around the Turn of the Century.” Working Papers 4180, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bloom, David E., and David Canning. 2001. “Demographic Change and Economic Growth: The Role of Cumulative Causality.” In Population Does Matter: Demography, Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World, edited by N. Birdsall, A. C. Kelley, and S. W. Sinding. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 165–97.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bloom, David E., David Canning, Guenther Fink, and Jocelyn E. Finlay. 2009. “Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend.” Journal of Economic Growth 14(2), 79–101.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bloom, David E., David Canning, and Pia N. Malaney. 1999. “Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia.” Center for International Development Working Paper No. 15, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bloom, David E., David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla. 2003. The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. Santa Monica, California: Rand Corporation.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bloom, David E., and Jeffrey G. Williamson. 1998. “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia.” NBER Working Paper No. 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge: Massachussetts.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brin, S., and L. Page. 1998. “The Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine.” Proceedings of the 7th World-Wide Web Conference. Brisbane, Australia.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Brückner, M., A. Chong, and M. Gradstein. 2012. “Estimating Permanent Income Elasticity of Government Expenditures: Evidence on Wagner’s Law Based on Oil Price Shocks.” Journal of Public Economics 96: 1025–35.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Clements, B., S. Gupta, and M. Nozaki. 2013. “What Happens to Social Spending in IMF-Supported Programmes.” Applied Economics 45(28): 4022–33.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • De Backer, Koen, and K. Sébastien Miroudot. 2013. “Mapping Global Value Chains.” OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 159, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k3v1trgnbr4-en.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • De Benedictis, L., S. Nenci, G. Santoni, L. Tajoli, and C. Vicarelli. 2014. “Network Analysis of World Trade Using the BACI-CEPII Dataset.” Global Economy Journal 14(3–4): 287–343.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay. 2003. “Institutions, Trade and Growth.” Journal of Monetary Economics 50(1): 133–62.

  • Drummond, Paulo, Vimal Thakoor, and Shu Yu. 2014. “Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend.” IMF Working Paper 14/143, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Drummond, Paulo, S. Kal Wajid, and Oral Williams, eds. 2015. The Quest for Regional Integration in the East African Community. Washington: International Monetary Fund.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Elson, Anthony. 2013. Globalization and Development: Why East Asia Surged Ahead and Latin America Fell Behind. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • FAO/WFP. 2014. “Special Report, FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment – Guinea.” Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World Food Programme.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Fox, Louise, Cleary Haines, Jorge Huerta Muñoz, and Alun Thomas. 2013. “Africa’s Got Work to Do: Employment Prospects in the New Century.” IMF Working Paper 13/201, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 2000. “Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition.” American Economic Review 110: 806–28.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Gonzalez, Christian, Sonali Jain-Chandra, Kalpana Kochhar, and Monique Newiak. 2015. “Fair Play: More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation. IMF Staff Discussion Note 15/02, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • González-Rozada, M., and E. L. Yeyati. 2008. “Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads.” Economic Journal 118 (533): 1917–36.

  • Gribble, James, and Jason Bremner. 2012. “Achieving a Demographic Dividend.” Population Bulletin 67(2).

  • Guengant, Jean-Pierre, and John F. May. 2013. Africa 2050: African Demography. Washington: Centennial Group for Emerging Market Forum.

  • Hassan, M. Kabir, Benito Sanchez, and Jung-Suk Yu. 2011. “Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Panel Data.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 51: 88–104.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hausmann, Ricardo, César A. Hidalgo, Sebastian Bustos, Michele Coscia, Alexander Simoes, and Muhammed A. Yildirim. 2011. The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Head, Keith, and Thierry Mayer. 2014. “Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook.” In Handbook of International Economics, edited by Elhanan Helpman, Kenneth Rogoff, and Gita Gopinath. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Henn, Christian, Chris Papageorgiou, and Nikola Spatafora. 2013. “Export Quality in Developing Countries.” IMF Working Paper 13/108, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Higgins, Matthew. 1998. “Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows.” International Economic Review 39: 343–69.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Higgins, Matthew, and Jeffrey G. Williamson. 1997. “Age Structure Dynamics in Asia and Dependence on Foreign Capital.” Population and Development Review 23(2): 261–93.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Hilscher, J., and Y. Nosbusch. 2010. “Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt.” Review of Finance 14(2): 235–62.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). 1997. Latin America after a Decade of Reforms. Economic and Social Progress in Latin America Report. Washington: Inter-American Development Bank.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2004. World Economic Outlook: How will Demographic Change Affect the Global Economy? World Economic and Financial Surveys. Washington, October.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2013a. “German-Central European Supply Chain—Cluster Report” IMF Country Report No. 13/263, Washington: August.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2013b. Global Financial Stability Report. World Economic and Financial Surveys. Washington, April.

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2013c. “Trade Interconnectedness: The World with Global Value Chains.” IMF Staff Papers 13(248).

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2014a. Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific. Washington, April.

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2014b. “Guinea–Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and for Modification of Performance Criteria Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement.” IMF Country Report No. 14/114. Washington, September.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2014c. “Liberia: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria–Staff Report; and Press Release.” IMF Country Report No. 14/197. Washington, July.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2014d. “Sierra Leone: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review–Staff Report; and Press Release.” IMF Country Report No. 14/171. Washington, June.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2015a. Global Financial Stability Report: Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks. World Economic and Financial Surveys. Washington, April.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2015b. World Economic Outlook: Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors. World Economic and Financial Surveys. Washington, April.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2015c. “Pan-African Banks–Opportunities and Challenges for Cross-Border Oversight.” IMF Policy Paper, Washington, January.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2015d. “Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund.” IMF Policy Paper, Washington, February.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Johnson, Robert C., and Guillermo Noguera. 2012. “Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added.” Journal of International Economics, 86(2).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Javorcik, B. S., and M. Spatareanu. 2008. “To Share or Not to Share: Does Local Participation Matter for Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment?” Journal of Development Economics 85(1): 194–217.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Khandelwal, Amit, and Mary Amiti. 2013. “Import Competition and Quality Upgrading.” Review of Economics and Statistics 92(2): 476–90.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Koopman, Robert, Zhi Wang, and Shang-Jin Wei. 2014. “Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports.” American Economic Review 104(2): 459–94.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lenzen, Manfred, Keiichiro Kanemoto, Daniel Moran, and Arne Geschke. 2012. “Mapping the Structure of the World Economy.” Environmental Science and Technology, 46(15): 8374–81.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lenzen, Manfred, Keiichiro Kanemoto, Daniel Moran, and Arne Geschke. 2013. “Building Eora: A Global Multi-Regional Input-Output Database at High Country and Sector Resolution,” Economic Systems Research 25: 1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mason, Andrew. 1997. “Population and the Asian Economic Miracle,” Asia-Pacific Population & Policy. October, Number 43.

  • Mason, Andrew. 2003. “Population Change and Economic Development: What Have We Learned From the East Asia Experience?” Applied Population and Policy 1(1): 3–14.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mason, Andrew, and Tomoko Kinugasa. 2008. “East Asian Economic Development: Two Demographic Dividends.” Journal of Asian Economies 19(5/6): 389.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Meade, J. E. 1961. “Report to the Government of Mauritius: The Economic and Social Structure of Mauritius.” Mauritius: Port Louis.

  • Maertens, M., L. Colen, and J. F. M. Swinnen. 2011. “Globalisation and Poverty in Senegal: A Worst Case Scenario?” European Review of Agricultural Economics 38(1): 31–54.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mayer, Thierry, and Soledad Zignago. 2011. “Notes on CEPII’s Distances Measures: The GeoDist Database.” CEPII Working Paper 2011–25, Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales, Paris.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Moral-Benito, Enrique. 2012. “Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach.” Review of Economics and Statistics 94(2): 566–79.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Nickell, S. 1981. “Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects.” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 49: 1417–26.

  • Nordås, Hildegunn Kyvik, and Roberta Piermartini. 2004. “Infrastructure and Trade.” WTO Staff Working Paper ERSD-2004-04, World Trade Organization, Geneva.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • OECD/AfDB. 2002. African Economic Outlook 2001/2002. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and African Development Bank.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • OECD–WTO. 2013. Aid for Trade at a Glance: Connecting to Value Chains. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; Geneva: World Trade Organization.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Page, John. 1994. “The East Asian Miracle: An Introduction.” World Development 22(4): 615–25.

  • Page, John. 1997. “The East Asian Miracle and the Latin American Consensus, Can the Twain Ever Meet?” In Pathways to Growth: Comparing East Asia and Latin America, edited by N. Birdsall and F. Jaspersen. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Reher, D. S. 2011. “Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition.” Population and Development Review 37: 11–33.

  • Rodrik, Dani. 2015. “Premature Deindustrialization.” Working Paper 20935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rosenzweig, Mark R. 1990. “Population Growth and Human Capital Investments: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of Political Economy, 98(5): 38–70.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Ruger, Jennifer Prah, Dean T. Jamison, and David E. Bloom. 2001. “Health and the Economy.” In International Public Health, edited by Michael H. Merson, Robert E. Black, and Anne J. Mills. Sudbury, Massachusetts: Jones and Barlett, p. 619.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Soares, Rodrigo R. 2005. “Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice.” American Economic Review 95(3): 580–601.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Soares, Rodrigo R., and Bruno L. S. Falcao. 2008. “The Demographic Transition and the Sexual Division of Labor,” Journal of Political Economy 116(6): 1058–1104.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Soto, Mauricio, Vimal Thakoor, and Martin Petri. Forthcoming. “Pensions Reforms in Mauritius: Balancing Social Security and Fiscal Sustainability.”

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Summers, R., and A. Heston. 1991. “The Penn World Table. Mark 5: An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2): 327–68.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sutton, John. 2012. Competing in Capabilities: The Globalization Process. London: Oxford University Press.

  • SWIFT. 2013. “Africa Payments: Insights into African Transaction Flows.” White Paper, Belgium.

  • Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna, and Martin Petri. 2014. “Mauritius: The Drivers of Growth—Can the Past Be Extended?” IMF Working Paper 14/134, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Timmer, Marcel P., G.J. de Vries, and K. de Vries. 2014. “Patterns of Structural Change in Developing Countries.” Research Memorandum 149, Groningen Growth and Development Center, University of Groningen.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • United Nations. 2014. World Population Prospects. 2012. Revision. New York: United Nations.

  • UNCTAD. 2013. “Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development.” World Investment Report. New York and Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, United Nations Publishing.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • UNCTAD. 2014. “Investing in the SDGs: An Action Plan.” World Investment Report. Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, United Nations Publishing.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Uy, Marilou. 1993. “The Role of Capital Markets and the Role of Government.” Background paper. Washington: World Bank.

  • Williamson, J. G., and M. Higgins. 2001. “The Accumulation and Demography Connection in East Asia.” In Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, edited by Andrew Mason. Redwood City, California: Stanford University Press, pp. 123–54.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • World Bank. 2014. The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic, Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa. Washington: World Bank.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • World Bank. 2015. The Economic Impact of Ebola on Sub-Saharan Africa: Updated Estimates for 2015. Washington: World Bank.

  • World Trade Organization (WTO). 2014. Trade and Development: Recent Trends and the Role of the WTO. Geneva: World Trade Organization.