Chapter 3. After the Boom: Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
Author: Bertrand Gruss1
  • 1 0000000404811396 Monetary Fund


Following a decade of rapid, broad-based gains, international commodity prices peaked in mid-2011 and have fallen somewhat since then (Figure 3.1). Many analysts now argue that the upward phase of the commodity “super cycle” that started in the early 2000s has run its course.1 Indeed, market futures show commodity prices softening further in the near term, reflecting an anticipated increase in commodity supply along with weaker demand from some of the major commodity-importing economies, notably China.2 While these projections are subject to large uncertainty, there is nonetheless wide consensus that the period of ever-increasing commodity prices has come to an end.

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