Abstract

[Page numbers followed by b, f, or t refer to boxed text, figures, or tables, respectively.]

Index

[Page numbers followed by b, f, or t refer to boxed text, figures, or tables, respectively.]

A

  • Argentina

    • commodity exports, 43–44

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • distortionary economic policies in, 15

    • efforts to address economic imbalances in, 15

    • emerging economic challenges for, 15

    • energy supply issues in, 12

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 141, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

    • recommended reforms to promote growth, 15–16

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Asia

    • economic growth in, versus growth in LAC, 19, 22f, 23, 23f

    • effects of global financial shocks on

    • capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

    • financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

    • investment rates in, 12

    • terms-of-trade windfall in, 104

    • trade patterns in, 71, 76, 77f, 78

    • vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169, 182–83, 182f

B

  • Banks. See Financial sector

  • Bolivia

    • commodity price fluctuations in, 46

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Bond maturity dates, 216, 217f

  • Bond yields

    • emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

    • global financial shock outcomes in EMEs, 171, 171f

    • implications for EME of U.S. monetary policy, 226

    • implications of U.S. monetary policy, 216–17, 218f

    • patterns and trends, 9f

    • projected U.S., 214

    • sensitivity to U.S. monetary shocks, 219–24, 221f, 223t

    • synchronized rise in U.S. and EMEs, 217–19, 218f, 220

  • Brazil

    • business environment of, 12f

    • commodity exports, 43

    • construction sector activity in, 235

    • credit markets, 234, 239–40

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • education outcomes in, 12f

    • housing market, 241, 243

    • infrastructure quality in, 12, 12f

    • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

    • projected effects of external shocks on

    • debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Business environment

    • in LAC countries, 12f

    • recommended reforms to improve, 14–15

    • total factor productivity growth and, 31–32, 32f

C

  • Capital account restrictions, 173, 173f. See also Financial openness

  • Capital accumulation

    • modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21, 25–26

    • modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

    • projected growth rate of, output growth rate potential and, 28–30

    • as source of growth in LAC, 21, 22f, 32, 33f, 34f

  • Capital flows

    • causes of reversal episodes, 187

    • domestic investment during financial crises and, 187, 188, 193, 195, 196, 201–2, 224–26

    • effects of global financial shock on, 171, 171f, 181, 186–88

    • effects of uncertainty shocks on, 188, 189t, 192, 192f, 195–97, 198–99, 198f, 201–2, 203, 205f

    • effects of U.S. interest rate shocks on, 188, 189t, 192f, 193–94, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

    • effects of U.S. output shocks on, 193–94, 194f, 226, 226f

    • financial integration mediating global shock effects on, 195–97, 196f

    • global financial shock effects on types of, 198–99, 198f, 208f, 209f

    • international commodity price shocks and, 195

    • international comparison of global financial crisis effects on, 186f

    • LAC economic performance in 2000s and, 7

    • modeling global financial shock effects on, 189–91, 203

    • regional differences in effects of global

    • financial shocks on, 199, 200–201f, 206f

  • Chile

    • business environment of, 12f

    • capital flows, 186f

    • commodity price fluctuations in, 46

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • education outcomes in, 12f

    • export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

    • growth patterns in, 23

    • housing market in, 241, 244

    • infrastructure quality in, 12f

    • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

    • total factor productivity growth in, 24–25

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • China

    • implications for LAC of economic growth rates in, 41, 58–60, 59f, 61–62, 61f

    • influence on global commodity markets, 74

  • Colombia

    • business environment of, 12f

    • commodity price fluctuations in, 43, 44f, 46

    • construction sector activity in, 235

    • credit rules in, 245b, 246

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • education outcomes in, 12f

    • housing market, 244

    • infrastructure quality in, 12f

    • mortgage crisis, 245b

    • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 162

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Commodity dependence, 75, 76, 77f, 90, 92–93f

    • Commodity export concentrations, 75–78, 92–93f

  • Commodity prices

    • in assessment of fiscal policy cyclicality, 155–56, 157

    • category comparisons and relationships, 73–75, 73f, 74f, 75f, 76–77

    • category distribution of recent increases in, 42, 47, 71

    • commodity export concentration and sensitivity to, 76, 78

    • demand in China as factor in, 58–60, 60f, 61–62

    • determinants of macroeconomic performance during shock episodes, 79–91

    • distinguishing features of LAC economies, 71

    • economic effects of stabilization in, 55, 56–58, 61

    • economic growth linkage with, 49–50, 50f, 78–79

    • effects of global financial shocks on, 170, 171f

    • effects on EME capital flows from positive shocks to, 195, 207f

    • emerging challenges for LAC from recent trends in, 10

    • implications of declines in, for medium-term growth, 39–41

    • income windfall for exporters in 2000s, 8, 96

    • LAC’s economic performance in 2000s and, 8, 10

    • levels versus growth of, economic growth and, 41, 46–47, 58

    • patterns and trends, 10f, 39, 40f, 45–47, 45f, 46f, 47f, 61, 64f, 71, 72–74, 73f

    • projected, 39, 47–49, 48f

    • projected economic growth effects of changes in, 41, 54–62

    • recommended policy response to projected patterns in, 62

    • See also Global vector autoregression to model commodity price–growth linkage

  • Construction sector, 235, 237f

  • Corporate debt, 14

  • Current account

    • balances during terms-of-trade booms, 105, 105f

    • international comparison, 174f

    • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 81, 81f, 84, 91

    • See also External balances

D

  • Debt sustainability

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • methodology for assessing, 117–19, 124–36, 125f

    • policy responses to ameliorate shock effects on, 132–35, 137–39, 141–42

    • projected effects of Lehman-like event on, 132, 138, 140–42

    • projected effects of protracted global slowdown on, 131, 138, 139, 140–42

    • projected effects of temporary financial shock on, 131, 137–38, 140

    • projected effects of temporary real shock on, 131, 137–38, 140

    • recent patterns in external indicators, 123–24

    • recent patterns in fiscal indicators, 120–23

    • vulnerability of LAC countries to external shock effects on, 119, 143

  • Demographic patterns and trends

    • constraints to labor growth, 28, 29f

    • emerging challenges for LAC, 4, 12

    • projected dependency ratio, 28, 29f

    • in projected output growth rate, 28

  • Dominican Republic

    • growth rate potential, 27

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

E

  • Economic accomplishments of LAC in 2000s, 3, 4–8, 117, 118f

    • credit ratings reflecting, 7

    • emerging challenges to, 3–4, 10–13, 16

    • policies and conditions underlying, 3

    • recommended reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

    • See also Growth in LAC; Medium term economic prospects

  • Ecuador

    • commodity price fluctuations in, 46

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 159

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Education

    • emerging challenges for LAC, 12

    • international comparison of student performance, 12

    • learning outcomes in LAC, 12f

    • recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

    • total factor productivity growth and, 32, 32f

  • El Salvador

    • growth patterns in, 23

    • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Emerging market economies (EMEs)

    • capital flow responses to global financial shocks in, 185–202

    • domestic output response to global financial shocks in, 168

    • economic linkage with advanced economies, 168

    • effects of 2008 global financial crisis in, 167

    • effects of U.S. monetary policy on, 10–11, 214, 215t

    • financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

    • financial sector outcomes of global financial shocks in, 171, 171f

    • fiscal policy cyclicality in, 149, 152, 157

    • international comparison of global financial shock outcomes, 177f, 182–83, 182f

    • labor market, 29f

    • market uncertainty effects in business cycle of, 168

    • modeling effects of large external shocks in, 175–79

    • projected demand in, 10, 10f

    • protective factors for, in response to external shocks, 167, 168–69, 185

    • trade sector outcomes of global financial shocks in, 170, 171f, 176

    • vulnerability of, to external shocks, 167, 168–69, 182–83, 185

  • EMEs. See Emerging market economies

  • Employment

    • construction sector, 235

    • emerging challenges for LAC, 11–12

    • patterns and trends, 7

    • prospects for growth, 28, 29f

    • as source of output growth in LAC, 23–24

  • Energy markets

    • current subsidies, 14

    • emerging challenges for LAC, 12

  • Energy sector, 25

  • Equity prices, emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

  • Europe

    • effects of global financial shocks on capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

    • vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169, 182–83, 182f

  • Exchange rates

    • external shocks in EMEs mediated by regime flexibility, 168–69, 179, 180–81, 180t, 183

    • implications of rising bond yields for, 217–19, 219f

    • in public debt dynamics in LAC, 120, 121f

    • recent trends, 10–11, 11f

    • recommended reforms to support continued growth, 14

    • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by flexibility in, 84, 87–90, 90f, 91

  • External balances

    • accomplishments in LAC in 2000s, 4–7, 117, 118f

    • debt sustainability analysis methodology, 124–36, 125f

    • determinants of debt dynamics, 147f

    • emerging challenges in LAC, 13, 15

    • external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 179, 180t, 181, 181f

    • international comparison, 174f

    • patterns and trends, 6–7, 6f, 123–24

    • projected effects of external shocks on, 142

    • recent policy trends contributing to widening of, 10

    • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 84

    • See also Current account

  • External conditions

    • contributing to LAC’s economic performance in 2000s, 3, 8, 117

    • debt sustainability analysis methodology, 117–19, 124–36

    • emerging challenges for LAC economies, 3, 10–11

    • projected effects of adverse scenarios on debt sustainability, 131–43

    • saving patterns in recent terms-of-trade boom affected by, 110–15, 113–14t

    • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 86

F

  • Factor accumulation as source of output growth in LAC, 17–19, 25

  • Financial integration

    • decoupling trends in EMEs, 168

    • exchange rate flexibility and, in mediating effects of external shocks, 168–69, 180–81, 181f

    • external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by degree of, 167, 168–69, 176–77, 179, 180–81, 180t, 183, 188, 202

    • global financial shock effects on EME capital flows mediated by, 195–97, 196f

    • global patterns and trends, 173, 173f

    • international comparison of, 172f

    • measurement of, 172

    • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 86, 90

    • transmission of external financial shock effects mediated by, 172

  • Financial openness

    • global financial shock effects on EME capital flows mediated by, 195–97, 197f

    • global patterns and trends, 173, 173f

    • international comparison of, 172f

    • terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 83, 84–86, 90

  • Financial sector

    • global financial shock outcomes in, 171, 171f

    • intermediation levels, 234–35

    • LAC’s economic performance in 2000s, 7

    • mortgage share of, 233, 244–47

    • recommended policy reforms to support growth of, 14

    • regulation and supervision of, 14

    • risk of global shocks for, 169, 170f, 170t

    • sources of improved soundness in 2000s, 7

    • total factor productivity growth and deepening of, 31, 32f

  • Fiscal policy

    • institutional and rules strengthening, 162

    • stimulus packages, 13

    • transparency, 162

    • See Procyclicality of LAC fiscal policies

  • Fiscal stimulus policies, 13

  • Flexible Suite of Global Models, 227

  • Foreign direct investment

    • effects of global financial shocks on, 198–99, 198f

    • share of capital inflows from, 7

  • Foreign financing

    • emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

    • LAC’s growth in 2000s supported by, 8

G

  • Global financial crisis (2008–09)

    • bond yield changes and, 220–22

    • external debt patterns after, 124

    • fiscal stimulus outcomes in LAC, 13

    • outcomes in emerging market economies, 167

    • policy response in LAC, 8

    • protective factors in LAC’s recovery from, 3, 8

    • public debt patterns after, 122–23

  • Global vector autoregression to model commodity price-growth linkage, 41–42

    • findings from, 54–62

    • goodness of fit tests for, 54

    • limitations of, 62

    • net commodity price index for, 42–43, 64f, 65f

    • policy implications of findings from, 62

    • specifications and methodology, 50–54, 63–66

  • Governance challenges for LAC growth, 12–13

  • Growth in LAC

    • commodity price linkage with, 49–50, 50f, 78–79

    • emerging challenges to, 4, 11–13

    • estimated effects of negative terms-of-trade shocks on, 87

    • in exporting economies of LAC, 8

    • gap between 1990s and 2000s, 21, 22f

    • versus growth in Asia, 19, 22f, 23, 23f

    • growth in People’s Republic of China and, 41, 58–60, 59f, 61–62, 61f

    • international comparison of past global financial shock outcomes, 177f, 182–83, 182f

    • methodology for analyzing supply-side sources of, 19–21, 25–26

    • methodology for estimating potential for, 26–27

    • output gap estimations, 152, 153b

    • patterns and trends, 5f, 11, 17, 18f, 37t, 39, 40f

    • potential output growth rate projections, 27–31, 27f, 31f, 32

    • projected, 17

    • projected effects of commodity price scenarios on, 41, 54–62

    • prospects for, 19

    • public debt patterns and, 121

    • reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

    • regional disparities in, 19, 21, 23f

    • strategies for improving total factor productivity to promote, 31–32

    • supply-side sources of, 17–19, 21–25, 22f, 32, 33f, 34f

    • See also Economic accomplishments of LAC in 2000s

H

  • Honduras

    • commodity price fluctuations, 46

    • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 160

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Household debt, 244, 246f

  • Housing market

    • assessment challenges, 233, 238, 244, 246–47

    • credit access and, 231

    • evidence of bubble formation in, 232–33, 240–44, 241t, 247

    • financial stability concerns, 244–47

    • international comparison, 235, 236t

    • nonperforming loans, 233, 244

    • price trends, 231, 234f, 235–38, 237f, 241, 242–44, 242f

    • recommendations for oversight, 247–48

    • See also Mortgage credit in LAC

  • Human capital

    • emerging challenges for LAC, 12

    • as source of output growth in LAC, 24

I

  • Income inequality

    • determinants of recent reductions in, 7

    • recent economic performance in LAC and, 4, 7

  • Inflation patterns and trends, 4, 5f

  • Infrastructure

    • emerging challenges for LAC, 12

    • quality in LAC, 12f

    • recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

  • Interest rates

    • effects of sharp movements in U.S., on EME capital flows, 185, 188, 189t, 192f, 193–94, 195, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

    • emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

    • historical shocks in U.S., 204t

    • LAC’s growth in 2000s supported by, 8

    • projected U.S., 213–14

    • in public debt dynamics in LAC, 120, 121f, 123

    • recent U.S. patterns, 186f

    • saving patterns in recent terms-of-trade boom affected by global, 112

    • synchronized rise in, 217–19

    • U.S., LAC debt and, 214

    • See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

  • Internal balances

    • accomplishments in LAC in 2000s, 4

    • emerging challenges in LAC, 13

    • See also Public debt

L

  • Labor

    • constraints to growth, 28, 29f

    • modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21

    • modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

    • output growth rate potential and, 28–30

    • as source of growth in LAC, 19, 21, 22f, 23, 24f, 32, 33f, 34f

    • See also Employment

  • LAC. See Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

    • capital account restrictions, 173, 173f

    • commodity dependence and export concentration, 76–78, 77f, 78f, 90, 92–93f

    • commodity price patterns, 10f, 39, 40f, 45, 45f, 46f, 47f, 61, 64f, 72–74

    • economic accomplishments in 2000s, 3, 4–8, 5f, 6f, 9f, 17, 117, 118f

    • effects of U.S. output and risk premium shocks, 227, 227f

    • emerging challenges for, 3, 4, 10–13

    • exports to U.S., 213, 214f

    • external debt trends in 2000s, 123–24

    • financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

    • in global comparison of vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169

    • international comparison of effects of global financial shocks on capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

    • main commodity exports, 63t

    • public debt denominated in U.S. dollars, 214, 216, 216f

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 120–23

    • public debt patterns, 161, 161f

    • recommended reforms to address emerging economic challenges in, 13–15, 228

    • terms-of-trade booms in, 98, 99f

    • See also Economic performance in LAC; Growth in LAC; Mortgage credit in LAC; specific country

  • Long-term growth, policy reforms to support, 14

M

  • Macroeconomic policies and performance

    • domestic sensitivity to external financial shocks mediated by, 172

    • effects of global financial crisis ameliorated by, 8

    • effects of terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 79–91

    • emerging challenges for LAC economies, 13, 15

    • external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 167, 168–69

    • international comparison of, 174f, 175

    • recommended reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

    • strengthening of, in LAC’s recent growth period, 7

    • See also Exchange rates

  • Medium-term economic prospects

    • commodity price projections, 47–48, 48f

    • implications of international commodity price trends, 39–41

    • projected economic growth effects of changes in commodity prices, 41

    • recommended reforms to improve, 13, 14–15

  • Mexico

    • business environment of, 12f

    • capital flows in, 186f

    • credit markets in, 234

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • education outcomes in, 12f

    • growth patterns in, 23

    • housing market in, 241, 244

    • implications of U.S. economic recovery for, 213

    • infrastructure quality in, 12f

    • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Middle East and North Africa oil-exporting countries, 96, 98, 101, 104, 105–6, 105f, 107–9

  • Mining sector, 25

  • Monetary policy

    • bond yield sensitivity to changes in U.S., 219–24, 221f, 223t

    • reforms to promote growth, 14

    • U.S., effects on EMEs, 214, 215t, 227, 227f

    • See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

  • Mortgage credit in LAC

    • assessment challenges, 233, 238, 246–47

    • construction sector activity and, 235

    • evidence of boom conditions in, 238–40, 239f

    • financial balance sheets and, 244–47

    • recent trends, 231, 233–35, 234f

    • recommendations for oversight, 247–48

    • risk of bubble formation, 231, 232–33, 247

  • Mutual fund flows, 171, 171f

N

  • National saving

    • average rates of, 105–6, 105f, 115

    • domestic and foreign distribution of, 107–9, 109f

    • external factors influencing, 110–15, 113–14t

    • marginal rate patterns, 106–10, 108t, 115

    • recommended policies to promote economic growth, 15

    • in response to terms-of-trade boom, 96, 104–10, 105f, 115

    • strategies for improving output growth, 31

P

  • Panama

    • growth rate potential, 27

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Paraguay

    • commodity price fluctuations, 46

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Peru

    • business environment of, 12f

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • education outcomes in, 12f

    • growth rate potential in, 27

    • housing market in, 241, 242–43

    • infrastructure quality in, 12f

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Poverty, 7

  • Primary balance

    • components of, 122f, 145f, 146f

    • external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 179

    • international comparison, 174f

    • public debt and, 6f, 122

    • terms-of-trade shock effects on, 90f

    • trends in LAC, 118f, 123

  • Procyclicality of LAC fiscal policies

    • asset and commodity prices in analysis of, 155–56, 157

    • automatic and discretionary policy responses, 152–54

    • data sources on, 156–57

    • historical evidence for, 149

    • intra-LAC differences in, 149, 159–60, 160t, 162

    • measures of cyclical stance in analysis of, 152–54

    • methodology for analyzing, 149, 150–56, 151t

    • output gap estimation in analysis of, 152, 157, 159, 160t

    • recent patterns in, 149, 157, 158t

    • role of GDP composition in analyzing, 154–55

    • significance of cyclicality in fiscal policy decisions, 149–50

  • Productivity

    • recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

    • See also Total factor productivity

  • Public debt

    • cyclicality of LAC fiscal policies and, 161–62

    • determinants of, in LAC in 2000s, 120–23, 121f, 122f, 144–46f

    • economic performance in LAC in 2000s, 3, 4, 6f, 161, 161f

    • effects of global financial crisis, 122–23

    • foreign-currency debt share of, 4

    • international comparison, 174f

    • maturity, 4, 6f

    • policy responses to ameliorate shock effects on, 138–39, 141–42

    • sustainability analysis methodology, 124, 125f, 127–36

  • Public spending, emerging challenges in LAC, 4, 13

Q

  • Quantitative easing in U.S.

    • effects on capital flows in EMEs, 187, 188, 193, 202

    • EME bond yields and, 220–22, 221f

    • implications for EME foreign currency bond yields, 216–17

    • implications for global recovery from Great Recession, 185, 213

R

  • Regulation

    • financial sector, 14

    • housing market oversight, 247–48

S

  • Sovereign spread equation, 130

T

  • Taxes

    • automatic stabilizing effects as cyclical fiscal policy, 152–54

    • in composition of GDP, 154–55

  • Terms of trade

    • cross-sectional modeling of effects of shocks to, 79–83, 85t

    • current account balances mediating shocks to, 81, 81f, 84, 91

    • econometric modeling of effects of shocks to, 83–86

    • effects of prior boom in, mediating negative shocks to, 81–83, 84

    • emerging challenges for LAC in, 10

    • exchange rate flexibility mediating effects of shocks to, 84, 87–90, 90f, 91

    • external factors mediating saving patterns in recent boom, 112–15, 113–14t

    • features of historical boom periods, 96–98, 97f

    • growth outcomes of negative shocks to, 87

    • historical episodes of, 80, 80f

    • income windfall from recent boom in, 8, 96, 98–104, 102f, 103f, 115

    • LAC’s economic performance in 2000s and, 8, 9f

    • measures of commodity price fluctuation, 42–43

    • panel setting approach to modeling effects of shocks to, 79, 86–90, 88–89t, 110–11, 113–14t

    • persistence of shocks to, 80, 97–98, 97f, 112

    • policy conditions mediating effects of shocks to, 72, 90–91

    • savings patterns in boom period in LAC, 96, 104–10, 105f, 115

  • Total factor productivity

    • future challenges for LAC economic performance, 19

    • modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21

    • modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

    • patterns and trends in LAC, 18, 24–25, 25f

    • projected growth rate of, output growth rate potential and, 28–31, 31f

    • as source of growth in LAC, 18, 19, 21, 22f, 23, 25, 33f 34f

    • strategies for improving, 31–32

  • Trade

    • commodity dependence in LAC, 71, 76, 77f, 78f

    • distinguishing features of LAC’s, 71

    • global financial shock effects on, in EMEs, 170, 171f

    • LAC exports to U.S., 213, 214f

    • main commodity exports from LAC, 63t

    • measure of commodity dependence, 75

    • measure of commodity export concentration, 75–76

    • See also Commodity prices; Terms of trade

U

  • Uncertainty spikes, 168, 185, 186f

    • effects on capital flows in EMEs, 188, 189t, 192, 192f, 195–97, 198–99, 198f, 201–2, 203, 205f

    • historical episodes, 204t

    • See also Volatility index

  • United States

    • bond yield sensitivity to monetary shocks, 219–24, 221f, 223t

    • bond yields in 2000s, 9f, 10–11, 11f

    • effects of interest rate shocks in, on EME capital flows, 192f, 193–94, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

    • effects on EME capital flows of interest rate shocks in, 185, 188, 189t, 195, 199

    • global implications of economic recovery in, 213, 226–27

    • historical interest rate shocks in, 204t

    • interest rate regime, 10–11

    • LAC exports to, 213, 214f

    • monetary policy responses to global financial shocks, 185, 186f

    • output shock effects on EME capital flows, 193–94, 194f, 207f, 226, 226f, 227f

    • projected interest rates, 213–14

    • See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

  • Uruguay

    • business environment of, 12f

    • commodity price fluctuations in, 43, 44f, 46

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • education outcomes in, 12f

    • housing market in, 244

    • infrastructure quality in, 12f

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

V

  • Vector autoregression modeling for debt sustainability analysis, 128–30

  • Vector autoregression modeling global financial shock effects on capital flows in EMEs, 189–91

  • Venezuela

    • commodity price fluctuations in, 46

    • current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

    • emerging economic challenges for, 15

    • energy supply issues in, 12

    • export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

    • external imbalances, 15

    • procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 159

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 141, 143

    • projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability of, 139–40

    • public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

    • reforms to promote growth in, 15–16

    • See also Latin America and the Caribbean

    • Volatility index, 168, 169, 180t. See also Uncertainty spikes

W

  • Wages, 7