Argentina

• commodity exports, 43–44

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• distortionary economic policies in, 15

• efforts to address economic imbalances in, 15

• emerging economic challenges for, 15

• energy supply issues in, 12

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 141, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

• recommended reforms to promote growth, 15–16

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Asia

• economic growth in, versus growth in LAC, 19, 22f, 23, 23f

• effects of global financial shocks on

• capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

• financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

• investment rates in, 12

• terms-of-trade windfall in, 104

• trade patterns in, 71, 76, 77f, 78

• vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169, 182–83, 182f

Banks. See Financial sector

Bolivia

• commodity price fluctuations in, 46

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Bond maturity dates, 216, 217f

Bond yields

• emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

• global financial shock outcomes in EMEs, 171, 171f

• implications for EME of U.S. monetary policy, 226

• implications of U.S. monetary policy, 216–17, 218f

• patterns and trends, 9f

• projected U.S., 214

• sensitivity to U.S. monetary shocks, 219–24, 221f, 223t

• synchronized rise in U.S. and EMEs, 217–19, 218f, 220

Brazil

• business environment of, 12f

• commodity exports, 43

• construction sector activity in, 235

• credit markets, 234, 239–40

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• education outcomes in, 12f

• housing market, 241, 243

• infrastructure quality in, 12, 12f

• procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

• projected effects of external shocks on

• debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Business environment

• in LAC countries, 12f

• recommended reforms to improve, 14–15

• total factor productivity growth and, 31–32, 32f

Capital account restrictions, 173, 173f. See also Financial openness

Capital accumulation

• modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21, 25–26

• modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

• projected growth rate of, output growth rate potential and, 28–30

• as source of growth in LAC, 21, 22f, 32, 33f, 34f

Capital flows

• causes of reversal episodes, 187

• domestic investment during financial crises and, 187, 188, 193, 195, 196, 201–2, 224–26

• effects of global financial shock on, 171, 171f, 181, 186–88

• effects of uncertainty shocks on, 188, 189t, 192, 192f, 195–97, 198–99, 198f, 201–2, 203, 205f

• effects of U.S. interest rate shocks on, 188, 189t, 192f, 193–94, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

• effects of U.S. output shocks on, 193–94, 194f, 226, 226f

• financial integration mediating global shock effects on, 195–97, 196f

• global financial shock effects on types of, 198–99, 198f, 208f, 209f

• international commodity price shocks and, 195

• international comparison of global financial crisis effects on, 186f

• LAC economic performance in 2000s and, 7

• modeling global financial shock effects on, 189–91, 203

• regional differences in effects of global

• financial shocks on, 199, 200–201f, 206f

Chile

• business environment of, 12f

• capital flows, 186f

• commodity price fluctuations in, 46

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• education outcomes in, 12f

• export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

• growth patterns in, 23

• housing market in, 241, 244

• infrastructure quality in, 12f

• procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

• total factor productivity growth in, 24–25

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

China

• implications for LAC of economic growth rates in, 41, 58–60, 59f, 61–62, 61f

• influence on global commodity markets, 74

Colombia

• business environment of, 12f

• commodity price fluctuations in, 43, 44f, 46

• construction sector activity in, 235

• credit rules in, 245b, 246

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• education outcomes in, 12f

• housing market, 244

• infrastructure quality in, 12f

• mortgage crisis, 245b

• procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 162

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

• Commodity dependence, 75, 76, 77f, 90, 92–93f

• Commodity export concentrations, 75–78, 92–93f

Commodity prices

• in assessment of fiscal policy cyclicality, 155–56, 157

• category comparisons and relationships, 73–75, 73f, 74f, 75f, 76–77

• category distribution of recent increases in, 42, 47, 71

• commodity export concentration and sensitivity to, 76, 78

• demand in China as factor in, 58–60, 60f, 61–62

• determinants of macroeconomic performance during shock episodes, 79–91

• distinguishing features of LAC economies, 71

• economic effects of stabilization in, 55, 56–58, 61

• economic growth linkage with, 49–50, 50f, 78–79

• effects of global financial shocks on, 170, 171f

• effects on EME capital flows from positive shocks to, 195, 207f

• emerging challenges for LAC from recent trends in, 10

• implications of declines in, for medium-term growth, 39–41

• income windfall for exporters in 2000s, 8, 96

• LAC’s economic performance in 2000s and, 8, 10

• levels versus growth of, economic growth and, 41, 46–47, 58

• patterns and trends, 10f, 39, 40f, 45–47, 45f, 46f, 47f, 61, 64f, 71, 72–74, 73f

• projected, 39, 47–49, 48f

• projected economic growth effects of changes in, 41, 54–62

• recommended policy response to projected patterns in, 62

• See also Global vector autoregression to model commodity price–growth linkage

Construction sector, 235, 237f

Corporate debt, 14

Current account

• balances during terms-of-trade booms, 105, 105f

• international comparison, 174f

• terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 81, 81f, 84, 91

• See also External balances

Debt sustainability

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• methodology for assessing, 117–19, 124–36, 125f

• policy responses to ameliorate shock effects on, 132–35, 137–39, 141–42

• projected effects of Lehman-like event on, 132, 138, 140–42

• projected effects of protracted global slowdown on, 131, 138, 139, 140–42

• projected effects of temporary financial shock on, 131, 137–38, 140

• projected effects of temporary real shock on, 131, 137–38, 140

• recent patterns in external indicators, 123–24

• recent patterns in fiscal indicators, 120–23

• vulnerability of LAC countries to external shock effects on, 119, 143

Demographic patterns and trends

• constraints to labor growth, 28, 29f

• emerging challenges for LAC, 4, 12

• projected dependency ratio, 28, 29f

• in projected output growth rate, 28

Dominican Republic

• growth rate potential, 27

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Economic accomplishments of LAC in 2000s, 3, 4–8, 117, 118f

• credit ratings reflecting, 7

• emerging challenges to, 3–4, 10–13, 16

• policies and conditions underlying, 3

• recommended reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

• See also Growth in LAC; Medium term economic prospects

Ecuador

• commodity price fluctuations in, 46

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 159

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Education

• emerging challenges for LAC, 12

• international comparison of student performance, 12

• learning outcomes in LAC, 12f

• recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

• total factor productivity growth and, 32, 32f

El Salvador

• growth patterns in, 23

• procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Emerging market economies (EMEs)

• capital flow responses to global financial shocks in, 185–202

• domestic output response to global financial shocks in, 168

• economic linkage with advanced economies, 168

• effects of 2008 global financial crisis in, 167

• effects of U.S. monetary policy on, 10–11, 214, 215t

• financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

• financial sector outcomes of global financial shocks in, 171, 171f

• fiscal policy cyclicality in, 149, 152, 157

• international comparison of global financial shock outcomes, 177f, 182–83, 182f

• labor market, 29f

• market uncertainty effects in business cycle of, 168

• modeling effects of large external shocks in, 175–79

• projected demand in, 10, 10f

• protective factors for, in response to external shocks, 167, 168–69, 185

• trade sector outcomes of global financial shocks in, 170, 171f, 176

• vulnerability of, to external shocks, 167, 168–69, 182–83, 185

EMEs. See Emerging market economies

Employment

• construction sector, 235

• emerging challenges for LAC, 11–12

• patterns and trends, 7

• prospects for growth, 28, 29f

• as source of output growth in LAC, 23–24

Energy markets

• current subsidies, 14

• emerging challenges for LAC, 12

Energy sector, 25

Equity prices, emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

Europe

• effects of global financial shocks on capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

• vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169, 182–83, 182f

Exchange rates

• external shocks in EMEs mediated by regime flexibility, 168–69, 179, 180–81, 180t, 183

• implications of rising bond yields for, 217–19, 219f

• in public debt dynamics in LAC, 120, 121f

• recent trends, 10–11, 11f

• recommended reforms to support continued growth, 14

• terms-of-trade shocks mediated by flexibility in, 84, 87–90, 90f, 91

External balances

• accomplishments in LAC in 2000s, 4–7, 117, 118f

• debt sustainability analysis methodology, 124–36, 125f

• determinants of debt dynamics, 147f

• emerging challenges in LAC, 13, 15

• external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 179, 180t, 181, 181f

• international comparison, 174f

• patterns and trends, 6–7, 6f, 123–24

• projected effects of external shocks on, 142

• recent policy trends contributing to widening of, 10

• terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 84

• See also Current account

External conditions

• contributing to LAC’s economic performance in 2000s, 3, 8, 117

• debt sustainability analysis methodology, 117–19, 124–36

• emerging challenges for LAC economies, 3, 10–11

• projected effects of adverse scenarios on debt sustainability, 131–43

• saving patterns in recent terms-of-trade boom affected by, 110–15, 113–14t

• terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 86

Factor accumulation as source of output growth in LAC, 17–19, 25

Financial integration

• decoupling trends in EMEs, 168

• exchange rate flexibility and, in mediating effects of external shocks, 168–69, 180–81, 181f

• external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by degree of, 167, 168–69, 176–77, 179, 180–81, 180t, 183, 188, 202

• global financial shock effects on EME capital flows mediated by, 195–97, 196f

• global patterns and trends, 173, 173f

• international comparison of, 172f

• measurement of, 172

• terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 86, 90

• transmission of external financial shock effects mediated by, 172

Financial openness

• global financial shock effects on EME capital flows mediated by, 195–97, 197f

• global patterns and trends, 173, 173f

• international comparison of, 172f

• terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 83, 84–86, 90

Financial sector

• global financial shock outcomes in, 171, 171f

• intermediation levels, 234–35

• LAC’s economic performance in 2000s, 7

• mortgage share of, 233, 244–47

• recommended policy reforms to support growth of, 14

• regulation and supervision of, 14

• risk of global shocks for, 169, 170f, 170t

• sources of improved soundness in 2000s, 7

• total factor productivity growth and deepening of, 31, 32f

Fiscal policy

• institutional and rules strengthening, 162

• stimulus packages, 13

• transparency, 162

• See Procyclicality of LAC fiscal policies

Fiscal stimulus policies, 13

Flexible Suite of Global Models, 227

Foreign direct investment

• effects of global financial shocks on, 198–99, 198f

• share of capital inflows from, 7

Foreign financing

• emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

• LAC’s growth in 2000s supported by, 8

Global financial crisis (2008–09)

• bond yield changes and, 220–22

• external debt patterns after, 124

• fiscal stimulus outcomes in LAC, 13

• outcomes in emerging market economies, 167

• policy response in LAC, 8

• protective factors in LAC’s recovery from, 3, 8

• public debt patterns after, 122–23

Global vector autoregression to model commodity price-growth linkage, 41–42

• findings from, 54–62

• goodness of fit tests for, 54

• limitations of, 62

• net commodity price index for, 42–43, 64f, 65f

• policy implications of findings from, 62

• specifications and methodology, 50–54, 63–66

Governance challenges for LAC growth, 12–13

Growth in LAC

• commodity price linkage with, 49–50, 50f, 78–79

• emerging challenges to, 4, 11–13

• estimated effects of negative terms-of-trade shocks on, 87

• in exporting economies of LAC, 8

• gap between 1990s and 2000s, 21, 22f

• versus growth in Asia, 19, 22f, 23, 23f

• growth in People’s Republic of China and, 41, 58–60, 59f, 61–62, 61f

• international comparison of past global financial shock outcomes, 177f, 182–83, 182f

• methodology for analyzing supply-side sources of, 19–21, 25–26

• methodology for estimating potential for, 26–27

• output gap estimations, 152, 153b

• patterns and trends, 5f, 11, 17, 18f, 37t, 39, 40f

• potential output growth rate projections, 27–31, 27f, 31f, 32

• projected, 17

• projected effects of commodity price scenarios on, 41, 54–62

• prospects for, 19

• public debt patterns and, 121

• reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

• regional disparities in, 19, 21, 23f

• strategies for improving total factor productivity to promote, 31–32

• supply-side sources of, 17–19, 21–25, 22f, 32, 33f, 34f

• See also Economic accomplishments of LAC in 2000s

Honduras

• commodity price fluctuations, 46

• procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 160

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Household debt, 244, 246f

Housing market

• assessment challenges, 233, 238, 244, 246–47

• credit access and, 231

• evidence of bubble formation in, 232–33, 240–44, 241t, 247

• financial stability concerns, 244–47

• international comparison, 235, 236t

• nonperforming loans, 233, 244

• price trends, 231, 234f, 235–38, 237f, 241, 242–44, 242f

• recommendations for oversight, 247–48

• See also Mortgage credit in LAC

Human capital

• emerging challenges for LAC, 12

• as source of output growth in LAC, 24

Income inequality

• determinants of recent reductions in, 7

• recent economic performance in LAC and, 4, 7

Inflation patterns and trends, 4, 5f

Infrastructure

• emerging challenges for LAC, 12

• quality in LAC, 12f

• recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

Interest rates

• effects of sharp movements in U.S., on EME capital flows, 185, 188, 189t, 192f, 193–94, 195, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

• emerging challenges for LAC in, 10–11

• historical shocks in U.S., 204t

• LAC’s growth in 2000s supported by, 8

• projected U.S., 213–14

• in public debt dynamics in LAC, 120, 121f, 123

• recent U.S. patterns, 186f

• saving patterns in recent terms-of-trade boom affected by global, 112

• synchronized rise in, 217–19

• U.S., LAC debt and, 214

• See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

Internal balances

• accomplishments in LAC in 2000s, 4

• emerging challenges in LAC, 13

• See also Public debt

Labor

• constraints to growth, 28, 29f

• modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21

• modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

• output growth rate potential and, 28–30

• as source of growth in LAC, 19, 21, 22f, 23, 24f, 32, 33f, 34f

• See also Employment

LAC. See Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

• capital account restrictions, 173, 173f

• commodity dependence and export concentration, 76–78, 77f, 78f, 90, 92–93f

• commodity price patterns, 10f, 39, 40f, 45, 45f, 46f, 47f, 61, 64f, 72–74

• economic accomplishments in 2000s, 3, 4–8, 5f, 6f, 9f, 17, 117, 118f

• effects of U.S. output and risk premium shocks, 227, 227f

• emerging challenges for, 3, 4, 10–13

• exports to U.S., 213, 214f

• external debt trends in 2000s, 123–24

• financial integration patterns and trends, 173, 173f

• in global comparison of vulnerability to external financial shocks, 169

• international comparison of effects of global financial shocks on capital flows in, 199, 200–201f, 206f

• main commodity exports, 63t

• public debt denominated in U.S. dollars, 214, 216, 216f

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 120–23

• public debt patterns, 161, 161f

• recommended reforms to address emerging economic challenges in, 13–15, 228

• terms-of-trade booms in, 98, 99f

• See also Economic performance in LAC; Growth in LAC; Mortgage credit in LAC; specific country

Long-term growth, policy reforms to support, 14

Macroeconomic policies and performance

• domestic sensitivity to external financial shocks mediated by, 172

• effects of global financial crisis ameliorated by, 8

• effects of terms-of-trade shocks mediated by, 79–91

• emerging challenges for LAC economies, 13, 15

• external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 167, 168–69

• international comparison of, 174f, 175

• recommended reforms to address emerging challenges to, 13–15

• strengthening of, in LAC’s recent growth period, 7

• See also Exchange rates

Medium-term economic prospects

• commodity price projections, 47–48, 48f

• implications of international commodity price trends, 39–41

• projected economic growth effects of changes in commodity prices, 41

• recommended reforms to improve, 13, 14–15

Mexico

• business environment of, 12f

• capital flows in, 186f

• credit markets in, 234

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• education outcomes in, 12f

• growth patterns in, 23

• housing market in, 241, 244

• implications of U.S. economic recovery for, 213

• infrastructure quality in, 12f

• procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 149, 159–60, 162

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa oil-exporting countries, 96, 98, 101, 104, 105–6, 105f, 107–9

Mining sector, 25

Monetary policy

• bond yield sensitivity to changes in U.S., 219–24, 221f, 223t

• reforms to promote growth, 14

• U.S., effects on EMEs, 214, 215t, 227, 227f

• See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

Mortgage credit in LAC

• assessment challenges, 233, 238, 246–47

• construction sector activity and, 235

• evidence of boom conditions in, 238–40, 239f

• financial balance sheets and, 244–47

• recent trends, 231, 233–35, 234f

• recommendations for oversight, 247–48

• risk of bubble formation, 231, 232–33, 247

Mutual fund flows, 171, 171f

National saving

• average rates of, 105–6, 105f, 115

• domestic and foreign distribution of, 107–9, 109f

• external factors influencing, 110–15, 113–14t

• marginal rate patterns, 106–10, 108t, 115

• recommended policies to promote economic growth, 15

• in response to terms-of-trade boom, 96, 104–10, 105f, 115

• strategies for improving output growth, 31

Panama

• growth rate potential, 27

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Paraguay

• commodity price fluctuations, 46

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Peru

• business environment of, 12f

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• education outcomes in, 12f

• growth rate potential in, 27

• housing market in, 241, 242–43

• infrastructure quality in, 12f

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Poverty, 7

Primary balance

• components of, 122f, 145f, 146f

• external financial shocks in EMEs mediated by, 179

• international comparison, 174f

• public debt and, 6f, 122

• terms-of-trade shock effects on, 90f

• trends in LAC, 118f, 123

Procyclicality of LAC fiscal policies

• asset and commodity prices in analysis of, 155–56, 157

• automatic and discretionary policy responses, 152–54

• data sources on, 156–57

• historical evidence for, 149

• intra-LAC differences in, 149, 159–60, 160t, 162

• measures of cyclical stance in analysis of, 152–54

• methodology for analyzing, 149, 150–56, 151t

• output gap estimation in analysis of, 152, 157, 159, 160t

• recent patterns in, 149, 157, 158t

• role of GDP composition in analyzing, 154–55

• significance of cyclicality in fiscal policy decisions, 149–50

Productivity

• recommended policies to promote economic growth, 14–15

• See also Total factor productivity

Public debt

• cyclicality of LAC fiscal policies and, 161–62

• determinants of, in LAC in 2000s, 120–23, 121f, 122f, 144–46f

• economic performance in LAC in 2000s, 3, 4, 6f, 161, 161f

• effects of global financial crisis, 122–23

• foreign-currency debt share of, 4

• international comparison, 174f

• maturity, 4, 6f

• policy responses to ameliorate shock effects on, 138–39, 141–42

• sustainability analysis methodology, 124, 125f, 127–36

Public spending, emerging challenges in LAC, 4, 13

Quantitative easing in U.S.

• effects on capital flows in EMEs, 187, 188, 193, 202

• EME bond yields and, 220–22, 221f

• implications for EME foreign currency bond yields, 216–17

• implications for global recovery from Great Recession, 185, 213

Regulation

• financial sector, 14

• housing market oversight, 247–48

Sovereign spread equation, 130

Taxes

• automatic stabilizing effects as cyclical fiscal policy, 152–54

• in composition of GDP, 154–55

Terms of trade

• cross-sectional modeling of effects of shocks to, 79–83, 85t

• current account balances mediating shocks to, 81, 81f, 84, 91

• econometric modeling of effects of shocks to, 83–86

• effects of prior boom in, mediating negative shocks to, 81–83, 84

• emerging challenges for LAC in, 10

• exchange rate flexibility mediating effects of shocks to, 84, 87–90, 90f, 91

• external factors mediating saving patterns in recent boom, 112–15, 113–14t

• features of historical boom periods, 96–98, 97f

• growth outcomes of negative shocks to, 87

• historical episodes of, 80, 80f

• income windfall from recent boom in, 8, 96, 98–104, 102f, 103f, 115

• LAC’s economic performance in 2000s and, 8, 9f

• measures of commodity price fluctuation, 42–43

• panel setting approach to modeling effects of shocks to, 79, 86–90, 88–89t, 110–11, 113–14t

• persistence of shocks to, 80, 97–98, 97f, 112

• policy conditions mediating effects of shocks to, 72, 90–91

• savings patterns in boom period in LAC, 96, 104–10, 105f, 115

Total factor productivity

• future challenges for LAC economic performance, 19

• modeling contributions to growth from, 19–21

• modeling sustainability of growth from, 26–27

• patterns and trends in LAC, 18, 24–25, 25f

• projected growth rate of, output growth rate potential and, 28–31, 31f

• as source of growth in LAC, 18, 19, 21, 22f, 23, 25, 33f 34f

• strategies for improving, 31–32

Trade

• commodity dependence in LAC, 71, 76, 77f, 78f

• distinguishing features of LAC’s, 71

• global financial shock effects on, in EMEs, 170, 171f

• LAC exports to U.S., 213, 214f

• main commodity exports from LAC, 63t

• measure of commodity dependence, 75

• measure of commodity export concentration, 75–76

• See also Commodity prices; Terms of trade

Uncertainty spikes, 168, 185, 186f

• effects on capital flows in EMEs, 188, 189t, 192, 192f, 195–97, 198–99, 198f, 201–2, 203, 205f

• historical episodes, 204t

• See also Volatility index

United States

• bond yield sensitivity to monetary shocks, 219–24, 221f, 223t

• bond yields in 2000s, 9f, 10–11, 11f

• effects of interest rate shocks in, on EME capital flows, 192f, 193–94, 198f, 199, 201–2, 203, 205f, 207f, 224–26, 225f

• effects on EME capital flows of interest rate shocks in, 185, 188, 189t, 195, 199

• global implications of economic recovery in, 213, 226–27

• historical interest rate shocks in, 204t

• interest rate regime, 10–11

• LAC exports to, 213, 214f

• monetary policy responses to global financial shocks, 185, 186f

• output shock effects on EME capital flows, 193–94, 194f, 207f, 226, 226f, 227f

• projected interest rates, 213–14

• See also Quantitative easing in U.S.

Uruguay

• business environment of, 12f

• commodity price fluctuations in, 43, 44f, 46

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• education outcomes in, 12f

• housing market in, 244

• infrastructure quality in, 12f

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 142, 143

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

Vector autoregression modeling for debt sustainability analysis, 128–30

Vector autoregression modeling global financial shock effects on capital flows in EMEs, 189–91

Venezuela

• commodity price fluctuations in, 46

• current susceptibility to external shocks, 119

• emerging economic challenges for, 15

• energy supply issues in, 12

• export-led income windfall in 2000s for, 8

• external imbalances, 15

• procyclicality of fiscal policies of, 159

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability in, 141, 143

• projected effects of external shocks on debt sustainability of, 139–40

• public debt dynamics in 2000s, 121–22

• reforms to promote growth in, 15–16

• See also Latin America and the Caribbean

• Volatility index, 168, 169, 180t. See also Uncertainty spikes

Wages, 7