1. Sustaining Growth Amid Shifting Global Forces
Author:
International Monetary Fund
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Language:
English
Print Publication Date:
24 Apr 2014
Keywords:
REO; exchange rate; fragile state; monetary policy; MDRI country; Zimbabwe dollar; fragile country; oil-exporting country; country group composite; Exchange rates; Monetary policy frameworks; Inflation; Agricultural sector; Financial inclusion; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; Southern Africa; West Africa; single currency; investment inflow; production capacity; soft commodity; headline inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Fiscal stance; Commodity prices

Abstract

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa remains robust and is expected to pick up in 2014. After expanding by 4.9 percent in 2013, output looks set to expand by about 5½ percent this year. The region’s recent strong period of economic performance thus looks set to be sustained, supported by stronger global economic activity spurred by the improved outlook for the advanced economies. Importantly, the projections assume that the impact on the region of the expected growth slowdown in emerging markets and tightening global monetary conditions will be limited. Should these risks materialize, however, there would be consequential implications for growth in many countries in the region: slower emerging market growth would be certain to adversely impact export demand and commodity prices, while disorderly market conditions as unconventional monetary policies are unwound could trigger markedly higher financing costs. Beyond these latent external headwinds, more home-grown risks are also threatening growth prospects in several countries in the region. In a few cases policy missteps, such as large fiscal imbalances, threaten to undermine the hard-won macroeconomic gains of recent years that have supported growth. More problematic still, in a number of countries conflict is exacting a heavy toll, most acutely so in the Central African Republic and South Sudan. Against this background, the challenge for policy remains the steady pursuit of development objectives while promptly addressing emerging sources of macroeconomic vulnerability.

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Contributor Notes

This chapter was prepared by Alfredo Cuevas, Montfort Mlachila, Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia, Marco Pani, and Juan Treviño, under the guidance of Abebe Aemro Selassie. Research assistance was provided by Cleary Haines.
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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2014, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2014, Sub-Saharan Africa
Fostering Durable and Inclusive Growth
ISBN:
9781484342886
ISSN:
2071-3207
Publication Date:
24 Apr 2014
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484342886.086
Pages:
113

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