Abstract

A forecast is any statement about the future. Such statements may be well founded, or lack any sound basis; they may be accurate or inaccurate on any given occasion, or on average; precise or imprecise; and model-based or informal.

Contributor Notes

A forecast is any statement about the future. Such statements may be well founded, or lack any sound basis; they may be accurate or inaccurate on any given occasion, or on average; precise or imprecise; and model-based or informal.

—Clements and Hendry (2002, p. 2)

  • Artis, M.J., 1988, “How Accurate Is the World Economic Outlook? A Post Mortem on Short-Term Forecasting at the International Monetary Fund,Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, World Economic and Financial Surveys, pp. 149 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Artis, M.J., 1996, “How Accurate Are the IMF’s Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook,IMF Working Paper No. 96/89 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barrionuevo, J.M., 1993, “How Accurate Are the World Economic Outlook Projections?Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, World Economic and Financial Surveys, pp. 2846 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blagrave, P., and others, 2013, “Adding China to the Global Projection Model,IMF Working Paper No. 13/256 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boughton, J.M., 2001, Silent Revolution: The International Monetary Fund 19791989 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

  • Clements, M.P., and D.F. Hendry, 2002, “An Overview of Economic Forecasting,in A Companion to Economic Forecasting, ed. by M.P. Clements and D.F. Hendry (Oxford: Blackwells).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chidambaram, P., 2013, “Intervention of Mr. P. Chidambaram, Union Finance Minister, Government of India at the IMFC Plenary.Available at www.indianembassy.org/press_detail.php?nid=1978.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • de Resende, C., 2014, “An Assessment of IMF Medium-Term Forecasts of GDP Growth,IEO Background Paper No. BP/14/01 (Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Faust, J., 2013, “A Report of the Predictive Accuracy of the IMF’s WEO Forecast,version as of February 5 (unpublished).

  • Freedman, C., 2014, “An Evaluation of Commissioned Studies Assessing the Accuracy of IMF Forecasts,IEO Background Paper No. BP/14/02 (Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Genberg, H., and A. Martinez, 2014a, “User Perspectives on IMF Forecasts: Survey Methodology and Results,IEO Background Document No. 1 (Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Genberg, H., and A. Martinez, 2014b, “On the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts: A Survey and Some Extensions,IEO Background Paper No. BP/14/04 (Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Genberg, H., A. Martinez, and M. Salemi, 2014, “The IMF/WEO Forecast Process,IEO Background Paper No. BP/14/03 (Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, 2006, An Evaluation of the IMF’s Multilateral Surveillance—Background Documents (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, 2009, IMF Interactions with Member Countries (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, 2011, Research at the IMF: Relevance and Utilization (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, 2011, IMF Performance in the Run-Up to the Financial Crisis (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, 2013, The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Reports.Available at www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29.

  • International Monetary Fund, 2004, “Policy Formulation, Analytical Frameworks, and Program Design,SM/04/405 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2005, “Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Arrangements—Guidance NoteSM/05/303 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2006a, “Argentina—Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Engagement and Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access,SM/06/247 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2006b, “Ex Post Assessments of Members with a Longer-Term Program Engagement—Revised Operational Guidance Note,SM/06/395 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2010a, “Ex Post Assessments of Members with a Longer-Term Program Engagement—Revised Guidance Note,SM/10/45 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2010b, “Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Arrangements—Revised Guidance Note,SM/10/44 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2011, “Access Policy and Limits in the Credit Tranches and Under the Extended Fund Facility and on Overall Access to the Fund’s General Resources, and Exceptional Access Policy—Review and Modification,Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the IMF, Thirty-Sixth Issue. Available at www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sd/index.asp?decision=14064-(08/18).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2013, “Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries,SM/13/86 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Juhn, G., and P. Loungani, 2002, “Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector’s Output Forecasts,IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, pp. 4964.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luna, F., 2014a, “IMF Training on Forecasting Methods and Forecast Interpretation,IEO Background Document No. 2 (Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Luna, F.,, 2014b, “IMF Forecasts in the Context of Program Countries,IEO Background Paper No. BP/14/05 (Washington: Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Matheson, T., 2013, “The Global Financial Crisis: An Anatomy of Global Growth,IMF Working Paper No. 13/76 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Silver, N., 2012, “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions FailBut Some Don’t” (New York: Penguin Press).

  • Stiglitz, J., 2011, “TSR External Commentary—A Short Note on Surveillance and How Reforms in Surveillance Can Help the IMF to Promote Global Financial Stability.Available at www.imf.org/external/pp/longres.aspx?id=4600.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Timmermann, A., 2006, “An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts,IMF Working Paper No. 06/59 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation