1. While global activity is rebounding faster than projected earlier, the fiscal outlook is not improving commensurately. The overall fiscal deficit for the world is projected to decline from 6.7 percent of GDP in 2009 to 6 percent of GDP in 2010 (Table 1). However, this improvement is smaller than anticipated in November 2009 despite an upward revision in World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth projections (by 1.1 percentage points). This reflects an underlying deterioration in cyclically adjusted (CA; see Glossary) balances across all country groups.
Adema, W., and M. Ladaique, 2009, “How Expensive is the Welfare State? Gross and Net Indicators in the OECD Social Expenditure Database (SOCX),” OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers No. 92 (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development).
Aghion, P., and E. Kharroubi, 2007, “Cyclical Macro Policy and Industry Growth: The Effect of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy,” Working Paper (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University).
Aghion, P., and S. Durlauf, 2005, Handbook of Economic Growth, Vols. 1A and 1B (Amsterdam: North-Holland).
Arellano, M., and O. Bover, 1995, “Another Look at the Instrumental Variables Estimation of Error-Component Models,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 68, pp. 29–51.
Baldacci, E., and M.S. Kumar, 2010, “Fiscal Deficits, Debt and Interest Rates,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund), forthcoming.
Baldacci, E., G. Callegari, D. Coady, D. Ding, M.S. Kumar, P. Tommasino, and J. Woo, 2010, “Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China,” IMF Working Paper 10/69 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Blöchliger, H., C. Charbit, J.M.P. Campos, C. Vammalle, 2010, “Sub-Central Governments and the Economic Crisis: Impact and Policy Responses,” OECD Economic Department Working Paper 2010/8 (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development).
Boyd, Donald J., 2010, “Recession, Recovery, and State-Local Finances.” Presentation to the Forecasters Club of New York, January 28.
Caceres, C., V. Guzzo, and M. Segoviano, 2010, “Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion, or Fundamentals?” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund), forthcoming.
Coady, D., R. Gillingham, R. Ossowski, J. Piotrowski, S. Tareq, and J. Tyson, 2010, “Petroleum Product Subsidies: Costly, Inequitable, and Rising,” IMF Staff Position Note 10/05 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Cordella, T., A. Ricci, and R. Arranz, 2005, “Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link,” IMF Working Paper 05/223 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Dotsey, M., 1994, “Some Unpleasant Supply Side Arithmetic,” Journal of Monetary Economics, pp. 507–524.
Elmendorf, D., and N.G. Mankiw, 1999, “Government Debt,” in Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1C, ed. by, J.B. Taylor and M. Woodford (Amsterdam: North-Holland).
Escolano, J., 2010, “A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates,” IMF Technical Note and Manual (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Faini, R., 2006, “Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates in Europe,” Economic Policy, July, pp. 443–89.
Hemming, R., M. Kell, and A. Schimmelpfennig, 2003, Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Imbs, J., and R. Ranciere, 2009, “The Overhang Hangover,” Journal of Development Economics.
International Labor Organization, 2010, “World Social Security Report 2010: Providing Coverage in the Time of Crisis and Beyond” (Geneva: International Labor Office, Social Security Department).
International Monetary Fund, 2009, “The State of Public Finances; Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor: November 2009,” IMF Staff Position Note 09/25 (Washington).
International Monetary Fund,, 2010a, “Exiting from Crisis Intervention Policies,” IMF Policy Paper (Washington).
International Monetary Fund, 2010b, “Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Postcrisis World,” IMF Policy Paper (Washington).
International Monetary Fund, 2010c, “From Stimulus to Consolidation: Revenue and Expenditure Policies in Advanced and Emerging Economies,” Staff Paper (Washington), forthcoming.
International Monetary Fund, 2010d, “Fiscal Rules—Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances,” Staff Paper (Washington).
International Monetary Fund, 2010e, “Preserving Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis,” Staff Paper (Washington).
International Monetary Fund, 2010f, World Economic Outlook: Rebalancing Growth, World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington).
International Monetary Fund, 2010g, Global Financial Stability Report: Meeting New Challenges to Stability and Building a Safer System, World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington).
Johnson, N., C. Collins, and A. Singham, 2010, “State Tax Changes in Response to the Recession,” (Washington: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities).
Krugman, P., 1988, “Financing versus Forgiving a Debt Overhang,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 29, pp. 253–68.
Kumar, M.S., and J. Woo, 2010, “Government Debt and Economic Growth,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund), forthcoming.
Laubach, T., 2009, “New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt,” Journal of European Economic Association, Vol. 7, pp. 858–85.
Pattilo, C., H. Poirson, and L. Ricci, 2002, “External Debt and Growth,” IMF Working Paper 02/69, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Pattilo, C., H. Poirson, and L. Ricci, 2004, “What Are the Channels Through which External Debt Affects Growth?” IMF Working Paper 04/15 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Reinhart, C., and K. Rogoff, 2010, “Growth in a Time of Debt,” Working Paper. Presented at American Economic Association meeting, Atlanta, January 4.
Romer, P., 1987, “Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown,” NBER Macroeconomic Annual 1989, pp. 1002–1037 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
Segoviano, M., and C. Goodhart, 2009, “Banking Stability Measures,” IMF Working Paper 09/4 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Woo, J., 2009, “Why Do More Polarized Countries Run More Procyclical Fiscal Policy?” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 91, No. 4, pp. 850–70.
International Monetary Fund Copyright © 2010-2025. All Rights Reserved.