- International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
- Published Date:
- October 2018
©2018 International Monetary Fund
Cover: IMF Multimedia Services Division
Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company
Joint Bank-Fund Library
Names: International Monetary Fund.
Title: Fiscal monitor.
Other titles: World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440
Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2009- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles.
Subjects: LCSH: Finance, Public—Periodicals. | Finance, Public—Forecasting—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Forecasting—Periodicals.
Classification: LCC HJ101.F57
ISBN: 978-1-48436-7612 (paper)
Disclaimer: The Fiscal Monitor is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report analyzes the latest public finance developments, updates medium-term fiscal projections, and assesses policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on September 20, 2018. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.
Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2018. Fiscal Monitor: Managing Public Wealth. Washington, October.
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List of Tables
Editor’s Note (October 9, 2018)
The online edition of this report has been updated with a corrected version of Figure 1.11.
Assumptions and Conventions
The following symbols have been used throughout this publication:
… to indicate that data are not available
—to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist
– between years or months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months
/between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
“n.a.” means “not applicable.”
Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
Corrections and Revisions
The data and analysis appearing in the Fiscal Monitor are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of publication. Every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, corrections and revisions are incorporated into the digital editions available from the IMF website and on the IMF eLibrary (see below). All substantive changes are listed in the online tables of contents.
Print and Digital Editions
Print copies of this Fiscal Monitor can be ordered at https://www.bookstore.imf.org/books/title/fiscal-monitor-october-2018.
The Fiscal Monitor is featured on the IMF website at http://www.imf.org/publications/fm. This site includes a PDF of the report and data sets for each of the charts therein.
The IMF eLibrary hosts multiple digital editions of the Fiscal Monitor, including ePub, enhanced PDF, Mobi, and HTML: http://elibrary.imf.org/Oct18FM
Copyright and Reuse
Information on the terms and conditions for reusing the contents of this publication are at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
The projections included in this issue of the Fiscal Monitor are based on the same database used for the October 2018 World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report (and are referred to as “IMF staff projections”). In the Methodological and Statistical Appendix, fiscal projections refer to the general government unless otherwise indicated. Short-term projections are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged by the IMF staff as likely to be implemented. For countries supported by an IMF arrangement, the medium-term projections are those under the arrangement. In cases in which the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged cyclically adjusted primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise. Details on the composition of the groups, as well as country-specific assumptions, can be found in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix.
The Fiscal Monitor is prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department under the general guidance of Vitor Gaspar, Director of the Department. The project was directed by Abdelhak Senhadji, Deputy Director; Catherine Pattillo, Assistant Director; and Carolina Renteria, Division Chief. The main authors of this report are Jason Harris and Alexander Tieman (team leaders), Miguel Alves, Sage de Clerck, Fabien Gonguet, Klaus Hellwig, John Ralyea, Majdeline El Rayess, and Seyed Reza Yousefi. Contributions were received from Maren Brede, Salvatore Dell’Erba, Avril Halstead, Christian Henn, Thordur Jonassen, Yugo Koshima, Raphael Lam, Marialuz Moreno Badia, Ashni Singh, Alberto Soler, Philip Stokoe, and Aleksandra Zdzienicka. Under the guidance of Miguel Alves, these and other staff across the Fiscal Affairs and Statistics Departments, including Laura Doherty, David Gentry, Guohua Huang, Ayoub Mharzi, Jimmy McHugh, Gary Jones, Mariana Sabates Cuadrado, Sandeep Saxena, and Ercument Tulun, collected, compiled, and validated the data. This effort was facilitated by Gabriel Quiros and Rainer Koehler. Discussions at a workshop in March 2018 and bilateral meetings with Sebastian Boitreaud, Willem Buiter, Alberto Carrasquilla, Ian Carruthers, Mehmet Coskun Congoz, Fergus McCormick, Dag Detter, Svetlana Klimenko, Delphine Moretti, Kenneth Rogoff, John Stanford, Robert Townsend, Peter van de Ven, and staff from the New Zealand and United Kingdom Treasury departments further informed the project. Excellent research support was provided by Juliana Gamboa Arbelaez, Young Kim, Rohini Ray, Yuan Xiang, and Nisreen Zaqout. The Methodological and Statistical Appendix was prepared by Yuan Xiang. Lauren Bateman, Meron Haile, and Nadia Malikyar provided excellent coordination and editorial support. Rumit Pancholi from the Communications Department led the editorial team and managed the report’s production, with editorial assistance from Linda Griffin Kean, Susan Graham, Linda Long, and Vector.
Inputs, comments, and suggestions were received from other departments in the IMF, including area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—as well as the Institute for Capacity Development, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Research Department, Statistics Department, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.