Front Matter

Front Matter

Marialuz Moreno Badia
Published Date:
October 2016
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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Fiscal Monitor

October 2016


Use It Wisely

©2016 International Monetary Fund

Cover: IMF Multimedia Services Division

Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Joint Bank-Fund Library

Names: International Monetary Fund.

Title: Fiscal monitor.

Other titles: World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440

Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2009- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles.

Subjects: LCSH: Finance, Public—Periodicals. | Finance, Public—Forecasting—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Forecasting—Periodicals.

Classification: LCC HJ101.F57

ISBN: 978-1-51356-060-1 (paper)

978-1-47553-709-3 (ePub)

978-1-47553-707-9 (Mobi)

978-1-47553-705-5 (PDF)

Disclaimer: The Fiscal Monitor (FM) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report analyzes the latest public finance developments, updates medium-term fiscal projections, and assesses policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on September 23, 2016. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.

Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2016. Fiscal Monitor: Debt—Use It Wisely. Washington, October.

Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:

International Monetary Fund, Publication Services

P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.

Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201



Assumptions and Conventions

The following symbols have been used throughout this publication:

. . . to indicate that data are not available

— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist

– between years or months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months

/ between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year

“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.

“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

“n.a.” means “not applicable.”

Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.

As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

Further Information and Data

This version of the Fiscal Monitor is available in full through the IMF eLibrary ( and the IMF website (

The data and analysis appearing in the Fiscal Monitor are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of publication. Every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness, but it cannot be guaranteed. When errors are discovered, there is a concerted effort to correct them as appropriate and feasible. Corrections and revisions made after publication are incorporated into the electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary ( and on the IMF website ( All substantive changes are listed in detail in the online tables of contents.

For details on the terms and conditions for usage of the contents of this publication, please refer to the IMF Copyright and Usage website,


The projections included in this issue of the Fiscal Monitor are based on the same database used for the October 2016 World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report (and are referred to as “IMF staff projections”). Fiscal projections refer to the general government unless otherwise indicated. Short-term projections are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged by the IMF staff as likely to be implemented. For countries supported by an IMF arrangement, the medium-term projections are those under the arrangement. In cases in which the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged cyclically adjusted primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise. Details on the composition of the groups, as well as country-specific assumptions, can be found in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix.

The Fiscal Monitor is prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department under the general guidance of Vitor Gaspar, Director of the Department. The project was directed by Abdelhak Senhadji, Deputy Director, and Benedict Clements, Division Chief. The main authors of this issue are Marialuz Moreno Badia (team leader), Nicoletta Batini, Victor Duarte Lledo, Lorenzo Forni, Samba Mbaye, Giovanni Melina, and Rossen Rozenov. In addition, contributions were received from Marco Bernardini, Paolo Dudine, Nicolas End, Luc Eyraud, Xiangming Fang, Fabien Gonguet, Mariusz Jarmuzek, Andreas (Andy) Jobst, Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, Paolo Medas, Amanda Sayegh, and Sungwook Yoon. Agus Firmansyah, Emmanuel Hife, Marco Martinez, Christian Saborowski, and Sangeeta Srivastava advised on data issues. Excellent research assistance was provided by Kyungla Chae, Young Kim, Juna Luzi, and Tafadzwa Mahlanganise. Erin Yiu provided excellent coordination and editorial support. Michael Harrup from the Communications Department led the editorial team and managed the report’s production, with assistance from Susan Graham, Lucy Scott Morales, Nancy Morrison, and EEI Communications.

Input, comments, and suggestions were received from other IMF departments, including area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—as well as from the Institute for Capacity Development, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Research Department, Statistics Department, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.

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