- Paolo Mauro, Herve Joly, Ari Aisen, Emre Alper, Francois Boutin-Dufresne, Jemma Dridi, Nikoloz Gigineishvili, Tom Josephs, Clara Mira, Vimal Thakoor, Alun Thomas, and Fan Yang
- Published Date:
- August 2015
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Appendix Tables 1.1 and 1.2 report the assumptions for the volatility (standard deviation) and correlations of the key macroeconomic variables—growth, interest rates, exchange rate—used to produce the fan charts presented in Chapter 1. These are estimated using pooled quarterly data for 1993–2013 for the EAC countries (subject to data availability).
|Real GDP growth||2.0|
|Domestic real interest||3.0|
|Foreign real interest||0.5|
|Real exchange depreciation||4.6|
|Real GDP growth||Domestic real interest||Foreign real interest||Real exchange rate depreciation|
|Real GDP growth||100|
|Domestic real interest||3||100|
|Foreign real interest||3||22||100|
|Real exchange rate depreciation||−13||7||2||100|Appendix Figure 2.1.Debt Profiles in EAC Countries under DSA Assumptions
Sources: EAC authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Note: The light cone in the center is the 20-percent standard error interval around the median projection, and the overall cone marks the 99-percent confidence interval. The solid dark blue line shows the staff’s baseline projection, and the solid red line denotes the EAMU ceiling on gross debt-to-GDP ratio in PV terms.