- International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
- Published Date:
- April 2015
World Economic and Financial Surveys
Regional Economic Outlook
Asia and Pacific
Stabilizing and Outperforming Other Regions
©2015 International Monetary Fund
Regional economic outlook. Asia and Pacific. – Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2005-
v. ; cm. – (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)
Once a year.
Began in 2005.
Some issues have also thematic titles.
1. Economic forecasting – Asia – Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting – Pacific Area – Periodicals. 3. Asia – Economic conditions – 1945– Periodicals. 4. Pacific Area – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 5. Economic development – Asia – Periodicals. 6. Economic development – Pacific Area – Periodicals. I. Title: Asia and Pacific. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
ISBN: 978-1-49833-984-1 (paper)
ISBN: 978-1-47553-438-2 (web PDF)
Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:
International Monetary Fund, Publication Services
P.O. Box 92780, Washington, D.C. 20090, U.S.A.
Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201
- Executive Summary
- 1. Asia and Pacific’s Outlook: Still Leading Global Growth
- 2. Reaping the Benefits from Global Value Chains
- 3. Drivers of Financial Integration: Implications for Asia
- 1.1 Asia’s Export Performance: What Is Holding It Back?
- 1.2 Low Inflation in Asia: What Role for Oil Prices and Exchange Rates?
- 1.3 The Rising Credit Intensity of Output within Asia
- 1.4 Financial Conditions in Asia: How Accommodative Are They?
- 1.5 Spillovers to Asian Countries from Surges in Global Financial Market Volatility
- 1.6 What’s Going On in China’s Housing Market?
- 1.7 The Impact of Yen Depreciation on Japanese and Korean Exports: Is This Time Different?
- 1.8 Female Labor Force Participation in Japan: Is the Glass Half Full?
- 1.9 Cyclone Pam and Natural Disasters in the Pacific Island Countries
- 1.10 House Price Dynamics in Asia: A New Vulnerability?
- 1.11 Financial Spillovers in Asia: Evidence from Equity Markets
- 1.12 Has the Neutral Rate Fallen in Asia?
- 1.13 Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks
- 1.14 Climate-Economy Relationship in India
- 2.1 What Underlies Economic Complexity?
- 2.2 Case Study: Comparing Electronics Value Chains in Korea and Japan
- 2.3 Assessing Drivers of GVC Participation and Moving Up in GVCs
- 3.1 The Benefits and Risks of Further Regional Financial Integration in Asia
- 3.2 Does Financial Integration Enhance Financial Inclusion?
- 1.1 Real GDP Growth
- 1.2 Asia: Contribution to World Real GDP Growth
- 1.3 Oil Price Windfall: Impact on the Oil Trade Balance in 2015
- 1.4 Impact of Oil Price Decline on Macro Forecasts
- 1.5 Selected Asia: Inflation Decomposition of the CPI Basket
- 1.6 Selected Asia: Exchange Rates
- 1.7 Asia: Commodity Exports and Exchange Rate Movements
- 1.8 Selected Asia: Change in Exchange Rates and Reserves
- 1.9 Asia: Exchange Market Pressure Index
- 1.10 Selected Asia: Credit by All Providers to the Nonfinancial Private Sector
- 1.11 Asia: Equity and Bond Funds——Monthly Net Flows
- 1.12 Asia: Financial Account Balances
- 1.13 Selected Asia: Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation
- 1.14 Selected Asia: Private Sector Credit Growth
- 1.15 Asia: Sovereign Bond Yields
- 1.16 Selected Asia: Real Policy Rates
- 1.17 Asia Financial Stability Heat Map
- 1.18 Asia: Output Gap versus Credit Gap
- 1.19 Asia: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Potential Vulnerabilities, 2014
- 1.20 Selected Asia: Debt-to-Equity Ratio for All Firms (both listed and unlisted firms)
- 1.21 Stock of Outstanding Bonds and Syndicated Loans in Foreign Currency—End-2014
- 1.22 Stock of Outstanding Bonds and Syndicated Loans in Foreign Currency—End-2014
- 1.23 Selected Asia: Tier 1 Capital Ratio—Latest
- 1.24 China: Potential Growth Decomposition
- 1.25 China: Growth Slowing Down
- 1.26 China: Social Financing Stock
- 1.27 Asia: Stock Markets
- 1.28 Japan: Real GDP Growth and Inflation
- 1.29 India: Current Account, Fiscal Balance, and Inflation
- 1.30 Asia: Changes in Real GDP at Market Prices
- 1.31 Selected Asia: Exports to Major Destinations
- 1.32 Selected Asia: Contributions to Projected Growth
- 1.33 Asia: Contributions to Change in Headline Inflation in 2014
- 1.34 Selected Asia: Real GDP Growth and Output Gap
- 1.35 Asia: Headline Inflation
- 1.36 Selected Asia: Policy Rate Actions
- 1.37 Asia: Estimated Central Bank Reaction Functions
- 1.38 Selected Asia: Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance
- 1.39 Asia: Real GDP Growth
- 2.1 A Hypothesized “Smiley-Shaped” Relationship between Value Added and Global Value Chain Position
- 2.2 Participation in Global Value Chains: 1995 versus 2012
- 2.3 Domestic Value-Added Share in Global Value Added
- 2.4 Upstreamness or Downstreamness
- 2.5 Tariffs and GVC Participation
- 2.6 Illustrative Impact: GVC Participation
- 2.7 Assessing the Link between Moving Up Global Value Chains, Upstreamness, Economic Complexity, and Tariffs
- 2.8 Research and Development Expenditure and Upstreamness
- 2.9 Illustrative Impact of 1 Percent Appreciation in the Real Effective Exchange Rate on GVC-Related Trade
- 2.10 Average Exchange Rate Variability: 2000–14
- 3.1 Asia: Foreign Direct Investment
- 3.2 Asia: Foreign Portfolio Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment Assets
- 3.3 Sources of Portfolio Inward Investment
- 3.4 Destinations of Portfolio Outward Investment
- 3.5 Sources of Foreign Bank Claims on Asia
- 3.6 Asia: Foreign Bank Claims
- 3.7 Interest Rate Dispersion Comparison
- 3.8 Home Bias Index across Regions
- 3.9 Illustrative Impact of Explanatory Variables on Financial Integration
- 3.10 Capital Account Openness Index
- 3.11 Allowed Foreign Ownership of Equity in the Banking Sector
- 3.12 Foreign Bank Penetration
- 3.13 Difference in Investor Protection Index
- 3.14 Difference in Contract Enforcement Index
- 3.15 Difference in Resolving Insolvency Index
In this Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, the following groupings are employed:
- “ASEAN” refers to Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, unless otherwise specified.
- “ASEAN-5” refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.
- “Advanced Asia” refers to Australia, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.
- “Emerging Asia” refers to China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
- “Frontier and Developing Asia” refers to Bangladesh, Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
- “Asia” refers to ASEAN, East Asia, Advanced Asia, South Asia, and other Asian economies.
- “EU” refers to the European Union.
- “G-7” refers to Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
- “G-20” refers to Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The following abbreviations are used:
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Bayesian model averaging
Bank for International Settlements
Coordinated Direct Investment Survey
consumer price index
Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey
distance to final demand
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
domestic value added
economic complexity index
financial conditions index
foreign direct investment
Financial Soundness Indicators
gross domestic product
gross fixed capital formation
generalized method of moments
global value chains
North American Free Trade Agreement
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Pacific Island countries
quantitative and qualitative easing
research and development
Rapid Credit Facility
real effective exchange rate
rapid financing investment
Southern Oscillation Index
total factor productivity
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index
World Economic Outlook
World Trade Organization
The following conventions are used:
- In tables, a blank cell indicates “not applicable,” ellipsis points (. . .) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
- In figures and tables, shaded areas show IMF projections.
- An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2007–08 or January–June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2007/08) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2009).
- An em dash (—) indicates the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown.
- “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
- “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
This Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific was prepared by a team coordinated by Rachel van Elkan of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, under the overall direction of Chang Yong Rhee and Markus Rodlauer. Contributors include Nasha Ananchotikul, Elif Arbatli, Paul Cashin, Kevin Cheng, Mali Chivakul, Jaime Guajardo, Roberto Guimarães-Filho, Gee Hee Hong, Joong Shik Kang, Yuko Kinoshita, Vladimir Klyuev, Christiane Kneer, Waikei Raphael Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, Wojciech Stanislaw Maliszewski, Kum Hwa Oh, Shi Piao, Mehdi Raissi, Jack Ree, Sidra Rehman, Dulani Seneviratne, Alfred Schipke, Yiqun Wu, Longmei Zhang, Shiny Zhang, and Edda Zoli. Shi Piao and Dulani Seneviratne provided research assistance. Luisa Calixto and Socorro Santayana provided production assistance. Rosanne Heller, former IMF Asia and Pacific Department editor, and Joanne Creary Johnson of the IMF’s Communications Department edited the report. Joanne Creary Johnson coordinated its production and release, with the assistance of Katy Whipple. This report is based on data available as of April 2 and includes comments from other departments and some executive directors.