- International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
- Published Date:
- November 2013
©2013 International Monetary Fund
Regional economic outlook. Middle East and Central Asia. – Washington, D.C.:
International Monetary Fund, 2004-
v.; cm. – (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)
Twice a year.
Began in 2004.
Some issues also have thematic titles.
1. Economic forecasting – Middle East – Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting – Asia, Central – Periodicals. 3. Middle East – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 4. Asia, Central – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 5. Economic development – Middle East – Periodicals. 6. Economic development – Asia, Central – Periodicals. I. Title: Middle East and Central Asia. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
ISBN: 978-1-48435-607-4 (Paper)
ISBN: 978-1-47556-727-4 (Web PDF)
Please send orders to:
International Monetary Fund
P.O. Box 92780
Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.
Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201
- Assumptions and Conventions
- Country Groupings
- World Economic Outlook
- Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
- MENAP Region Highlights
- Région MOANAP: Principaux Points
- 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Heightened Risks to Oil and Fiscal Positions
- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Complex Political Dynamics and Security Challenges
- Tension and Conflict Impair Economic Activity
- Downside Risks Are Significant
- External and Fiscal Positions Are Highly Vulnerable
- Medium-Term Growth Prospects Are Weak
- A Package of Reforms and External Financing Is Needed
- Getting the Pace and Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Right
- Where Conditions Allow, Monetary Policy Should Be Supportive
- Structural Policies to Raise Growth Potential
- International Support
- MENAP Oil Importers: Selected Economic Indicators
- Caucasus and Central Asia
- CCA Highlights
- 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Need to Increase Resilience and Accelerate Reforms to Become Emerging Markets
- Commodities, Remittances Support Rapid Economic Expansion
- Risks to the Near-Term Outlook Are Tilted to the Downside
- Inflation Stays Largely within a Comfortable Range
- Slowly Recuperating Financial Sector Needs Strong Oversight
- External Positions Call for More Exchange Rate Flexibility
- Fiscal Consolidation Is Needed to Increase Buffers and Stabilize Debt
- Toward Becoming Vibrant Emerging Markets
- CCA: Selected Economic Indicators
- Annex 1. Prospects for the Global Oil Market
- Annex 2. International Linkages and Spillovers for MENAP and CCA
- Annex 3. Anchoring Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries
- Annex 4. Minimizing the Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Growth, and Enhancing Equity
- Statistical Appendix
- IMF Publications on the Middle East and Central Asia 2013
- 1.1 Competitiveness and Labor Productivity in MENAP and CCA
- 1.2 Role of Financial Development in Promoting Economic Growth and Reducing Income Inequality and Poverty in MENA and CCA
- 1.3 Female Labor Force Participation in MENAP
- 2.1 The Syrian Conflict and Its Regional Ramifications
- 2.2 Somalia: Reengaging with the IMF
- 2.3 MENAP Oil Importers: Weaker Growth Scenario
- 2.4 Subsidy Reform in MENA: Recent Progress and Challenges Ahead
- 2.5 Fiscal Coverage in MENAP and CCA
- 2.6 Trade Integration as a Catalyst for Economic Transformation in the MENA Oil Importers
- 2.7 ArabStat
- 1.1 Crude Oil Production to Drive Recovery in 2014
- 1.2 Oil GDP Pauses in 2013; Non-Oil GDP Slowing but Steady
- 1.3 Private Sector Credit Is Accelerating
- 1.4 GCC Inflation Is Moderate
- 1.5 Inflation Remains High in Iran
- 1.6 Fiscal Balances Are Falling and Vulnerable to Oil Prices
- 1.7 Public Sector Wages and Salaries Have Outpaced Revenues
- 1.8 Volatility of Oil Production Has Increased
- 1.9 Fiscal and External Breakeven Prices Are High
- 1.10 Current Account Balances Are Falling
- 1.11 Non-Oil Total Factor Productivity Growth Is Mostly Negative
- 1.12 GCC Labor Markets Are Segmented
- 1.13 Public Jobs Reduce Private Jobs, Not Unemployment
- 2.1 High Political Risk
- 2.2 Credit Default Swap Spreads Indicate High Risk Premiums
- 2.3 Domestic Demand Dominates Contributions to Real GDP Growth
- 2.4 Signs of Life in Goods Exports and Tourist Arrivals
- 2.5 Real GDP Growth Forecasts Revised Downward
- 2.6 Inflationary Pressures Persist
- 2.7 Low Reserve Coverage
- 2.8 Change in Revenue and Expenditure
- 2.9 High Public Debt
- 2.10 Fiscal Financing Needs
- 2.11 External Financing Needs
- 2.12 Underwhelming Growth Prospects, Real GDP
- 2.13 Average Real GDP Per Capita
- 2.14 Many Avenues to Improving the Business Environment
- 3.1 Real GDP Growth Rates
- 3.2 Median Real GDP Per Capita in U.S. Dollars
- 3.3 Oil and Gas Exporters: GDP Growth by Country
- 3.4 Oil Exporters: Non-Oil and Oil GDP Growth
- 3.5 Oil and Gas Importers: GDP Growth by Country
- 3.6 Russia: Remittances Outflows to CCA Countries, Construction, and Hydrocarbon Production
- 3.7 External Private Debt
- 3.8 Sovereign Bond Spreads
- 3.9 Headline Consumer Price Index Inflation
- 3.10 Nonperforming Loans
- 3.11 External Positions
- 3.12 Oil and Gas Exporters: Fiscal Balances
- 3.13 Oil and Gas Exporters: Breakeven Oil Prices
- 3.14 Oil and Gas Importers: Fiscal Balance and Debt
- 3.15 Growth in the Region Has Not Been Diversified
- 3.16 Relative Gains by 2023
- 3.17 Trade with CCA
- A1.1 Oil Price Benchmarks, 2005–Latest
- A1.2 Options-Based Oil Price Prospects
- A1.3a IEA’s Assessment of Oil Market Outlook: Medium-Term Oil Market Balance, 2004–18
- A1.3b IEA’s Assessment of Oil Market Outlook: Global Demand Growth, 2004–18
- A1.3c IEA’s Assessment of Oil Market Outlook: Global Liquids Growth, 2012–18
- A1.4 U.S. Crude Oil Imports by Region, 2005–Latest
- A1.5 Global Refinery Capacity Additions, 2013–18
- A2.1 Lending by Foreign Banks to Selected Emerging Market Regions
- A2.2 Share of Non-Oil Exports by Destination
- A2.3 Shares of Remittances Inflows by Remitting Region
- A2.4 Moderate but Increasing Synchrony
- A2.5 GDP Impact of Emerging Market Slowdown
- A2.6 GDP Impact of Euro Area Slowdown
- A2.7 GDP Impact of U.S. Growth and Monetary Tightening
- A2.8 Gross External Financing Needs in 2013
- A2.9 MCD: International Issuance of Bonds, Equity, and Loans
- A2.10 MENAP and CCA Banking System: Loan-to-Deposit Ratios
- A2.11 Capital Adequacy Ratios
- A2.12 Bond Yields
- A3.1a Country-Specific Fiscal Management Considerations
- A3.1b Ratio of Proven Reserves to Total Oil and Natural Gas Production
- A3.1c Change in the Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price, 2009–13
- A3.1d Human Development Index and per Capita Purchasing Power Parity GDP
- A3.2 Oil Exporters: Average Non-Oil Primary Deficit
- A3.3 Nonhydrocarbon Primary Fiscal Deficit, 2013
- A3.4 Oman: Optimal versus Actual/Projected Spending, 2012–18
- A4.1 Fiscal Deficits and Debt
- A4.2 Total Tax Revenue and Expenditure, 2012
- A4.3 MCD: Tax Rates and Revenue, 2012
- A4.4 Property and Excise Tax Revenue, Latest Available
- A4.5 MCD: Expenditure Components and Inequality
- A4.6 Real Wage Growth
- A4.7 Public Investment Management Index
The Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO) is prepared annually by the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD). The analysis and projections contained in the MCD REO are integral elements of the Department’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in 31 member countries. It draws primarily on information gathered by MCD staff through their consultations with member countries.
The analysis in this report was coordinated under the general supervision of Masood Ahmed (Director of MCD). The project was directed by Alfred Kammer (Deputy Director in MCD), Natalia Tamirisa (Chief of MCD’s Regional Studies Division), and Harald Finger (Deputy Chief of MCD’s Regional Studies Division).The primary contributors to this report are Alberto Behar, Sami Ben Naceur, and Pritha Mitra.
Other contributors include Chadi Abdallah, Georgia Albertin, Maria Albino-War, Kusay Alkhunaizi, Prasad Ananthakrishnan, Ritu Basu, Martin Cerisola, Ralph Chami, Jean-Francois Dauphin, Jonathan Dunn, Gamal El-Masry, Mohammed El Qorchi, Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, Sanaa Farid, Abdulhamid Haider, Fuad Hasanov, Amgad Hegazy, Mark Horton, Ben Hunt, May Khamis, Rene Lalonde, Alina Luca, Inutu Lukonga, Amine Mati, Gohar Minasyan, Franziska Ohnsorge, Francisco Parodi, Dmitriy Rozhkov, Randa Sab, Carlo Sdralevich, Bahrom Shukurov, Martin Sommer, Ruixin Zhang, and Younes Zouhar.
Gohar Abajyan and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen provided research assistance and managed the database and computer systems, with support from Mandana Dehghanian, Lisa Dougherty-Choux, Soledad Feal-Zubimendi, Mark Fischer, Mitko Grigorov, and Paul Zimand. Sanaa Farid and Cecilia Prado de Guzman were responsible for word processing and document management. Veronica Bacalu, Sami Ben Naceur, Aydin Bibolov, Dmitriy Rozhkov, Haiyan Shi, and Anna Unigovskaya reviewed the translations. Kia Penso edited the manuscript and managed the production of the publication in close collaboration with Joanne Johnson of the Communications Department, assisted by Katy Whipple.
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. It has been assumed that established policies of national authorities will be maintained, that the price of oil1 will average US$104.49 a barrel in 2013 and US$101.35 in 2014, and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S.-dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2013 and 0.6 percent in 2014. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The 2013 and 2014 data in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early September 2013.
The following conventions are used in this publication:
- In tables, ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
- An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2011–12 or January–June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2011/12) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, 2012).
- “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
- “Basis points (bps)” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.1Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
The November 2013 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO), covering countries in the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), provides a broad overview of recent economic developments in 2013 and prospects and policy issues for 2014. To facilitate the analysis, the 31 MCD countries covered in this report are divided into two groups: (1) countries of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP)—which are further subdivided into oil exporters and oil importers; and (2) countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The country acronyms used in some figures are included in parentheses.
MENAP oil exporters comprise Algeria (ALG), Bahrain (BHR), Iran (IRN), Iraq (IRQ), Kuwait (KWT), Libya (LBY), Oman (OMN), Qatar (QAT), Saudi Arabia (SAU), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen (YMN).
MENAP oil importers1 comprise Afghanistan (AFG), Djibouti (DJI), Egypt (EGY), Jordan (JOR), Lebanon (LBN), Mauritania (MRT), Morocco (MAR), Pakistan (PAK), Somalia (SOM), Sudan (SDN), Syria (SYR), and Tunisia (TUN).
MENA comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Mauritania, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
MENA oil importers comprise Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Tunisia.
The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The Maghreb comprises Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia.
The Mashreq comprises Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
The ACTs (Arab countries in transition) comprise Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen.
CCA countries comprise Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Georgia (GEO), Kazakhstan (KAZ), the Kyrgyz Republic (KGZ), Tajikistan (TJK), Turkmenistan (TKM), and Uzbekistan (UZB).
The CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the CIS, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.1 Because of the uncertain economic situation, Syria is excluded from the projection years of REO aggregates. For Sudan, projections for 2013 and 2014 exclude South Sudan.