- International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
- Published Date:
- April 2011
©2011 International Monetary Fund
Regional economic outlook. Middle East and Central Asia. – Washington, D.C.:
- International Monetary Fund, 2004-
- v.; cm. – (World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)
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- Began in 2004.
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1. Economic forecasting – Middle East – Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting – Asia, Central – Periodicals. 3. Middle East – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 4. Asia, Central – Economic conditions – Periodicals. 5. Economic development – Middle East – Periodicals. 6. Economic development – Asia, Central – Periodicals. I. Title: Middle East and Central Asia. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
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- Assumptions and Conventions
- Country and Regional Groupings
- World Economic Outlook
- Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
- MENAP Highlights
- Principaux points
- 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Opportunity to Pursue Fundamental Reforms
- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Winds of Change
- 3. Policy Challenges
- 3.1. MENA Oil Importers: Creating Jobs for the Young Workforce
- 3.2. Moving from Subsidizing Products to Protecting People: Strengthening Social Protection in MENAP
- 3.3. The Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
- Caucasus and Central Asia
- CCA Highlights
- Основные положения по странам КЦА
- 4. Caucasus and Central Asia: Sustaining the Recovery
- Growth Continued to Recover But Inflation Picked Up
- Continuing Recovery at a Moderating Pace
- Risks to the Outlook
- Policy Challenges: Achieving Sustainable and Inclusive Growth
- Is Inflation a Concern?
- Resisting Fiscal Pressures, Improving Expenditure Quality
- Strengthening Bank Balance Sheets
- Improving the Business Climate to Create Job Opportunities
- 1.1 Stabilizing Global Oil Markets
- 1.2 Sudan: Economic Challenges for North and South Sudan
- 1.3 Employment Creation in Oil Exporters
- 1.4 Spillovers from the GCC
- 2.1 Political Unrest Shakes Egyptian and Tunisian Economies
- 2.2 Tourism Takes a Break
- 2.3 Oil Prices and Intraregional Linkages
- 2.4 Monetary Policy Response to MENAP Food Inflation
- 3.2.1 Social Protection Instruments
- 3.2.2 Examples of Successful Subsidy Reforms
- 3.2.3 Replacing Subsidies with Cash Transfers: Subsidy Reform in the Islamic Republic of Iran
- 4.1 Poverty and Social Context in the CCA
- 4.2 What Is Driving Inflation in the CCA?
- 4.3 How Integrated Are CCA Countries?
- 4.4 New Pipelines in the Caucasus and Central Asia Region
- 1.1 Crude Oil Prices Rise Sharply
- 1.2 Growth Is Progressing in MENAP Oil Exporters
- 1.3 Non-Oil Sector Activity Remains Robust
- 1.4 Stock Markets Have Fallen
- 1.5 CDS Spreads Have Widened
- 1.6 Current Accounts Improve Across the Board
- 1.7 Current Accounts Under Alternative Price Scenarios
- 1.8 Fiscal Balances Improve
- 1.9 Non-Oil Fiscal Balances Expansionary
- 1.10 Non-GCC Headline Inflation
- 1.11 GCC Headline Inflation
- 2.1 Real GDP Growth Largely Flat in 2010
- 2.2 Income Growth Lagging Other Emerging Markets
- 2.3 Stock Market Indices Lower
- 2.4 Sovereign Bond Spreads Higher
- 2.5 Real GDP Growth of Trading Partners Differs
- 2.6 New Fiscal Costs
- 2.7 Inflationary Pressures
- 2.8 Nominal Exchange Rates Have Depreciated
- 3.1.1 Unemployment Rates by Region
- 3.1.2 Employment-to-Working-Age Population Ratios and Labor Force Participation Rates by Region
- 3.2.1 Cost of Price Subsidies versus Cash Transfers
- 3.2.2 Distribution of Subsidies Across Income Groups
- 3.3.1 Private Credit by Deposit Money Banks/GDP
- 3.3.2 Stock Market Depth by Region
- 3.3.3 Financial Depth in MENA Countries
- 3.3.4 Growth Impact of Raising Credit/GDP to Emerging Country Average
- 4.1 Real GDP
- 4.2a Exports of CCA Oil and Gas Exporters
- 4.2b Exports and Net Remittances of CCA Oil and Gas Importers
- 4.3a Aggregated Headline and Nonfood Inflation, CCA Oil and Gas Exporters
- 4.3b Aggregated Headline and Nonfood Inflation, CCA Oil and Gas Importers
- 4.4a Fiscal Balances in Oil and Gas Importers
- 4.4b Non-Oil-Gas Fiscal Balances in Oil and Gas Exporters
- 4.5 Adjustment in Policy Rates, 2010–11
- 4.6 High and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans
- 4.7 Public Spending Growth
- 4.8 Governance Indicators
- Statistical Appendix
- 1. Real GDP Growth
- 2. Nominal GDP
- 3. Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth
- 4. Crude Oil Production and Exports
- 5. Consumer Price Inflation
- 6. Broad Money Growth
- 7. General Government Fiscal Balance
- 8. General Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants
- 9. Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance
- 10. Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Revenue
- 11. General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending
- 12. Total Government Gross Debt
- 13. Selected MENAP Countries: Total Government Net Debt
- 14. Exports of Goods and Services
- 15. Imports of Goods and Services
- 16. Current Account Balance
- 17. Current Account Balance
- 18. Gross Official Reserves
- 19. Total Gross External Debt
- 20. Capital Adequacy Ratios
- 21. Return on Assets
- 22. Nonperforming Loans
The Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook (REO) is prepared biannually by the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD). The analysis and projections contained in the MCD REO are integral elements of the Department’s surveillance of economic developments and policies in 30 member countries. It draws primarily on information gathered by IMF staff through their consultations with member countries.
The analysis in this report was coordinated under the general supervision of Masood Ahmed (Director of MCD). The project was directed by Ratna Sahay (Deputy Director in MCD) and Ralph Chami (Division Chief in MCD).
The primary contributors to this report are Yasser Abdih, Adolfo Barajas, Andreas Bauer, Paul Cashin, Ana Lucía Coronel, Mark Horton, Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Tobias Rasmussen, David Robinson, and Axel Schimmelpfennig. Other contributors include Ali Al-Eyd, David Amaglobeli, Veronica Bacalu, Svetlana Cerovic, Joshua Charap, Jemma Dridi, Dominique Guillaume, Nadeem Ilahi, Annette Kyobe, Agustín Roitman, Dmitriy Rozhkov, Niklas Westelius, and Roman Zytek.
Jaime Espinosa provided research assistance and managed the database and the computer systems, with support from Gohar Abajyan, Arthur Ribeiro, Renas Sidahmed, and Chunfang Yang. Jasmine Lief was responsible for word processing and document management, with support from Naghmeh Djahanyekta and Sanaa Farid. In close collaboration with Joanne Blake and Martha Bonilla of the External Relations Department, Kia Penso edited the manuscript, and Christine Ebrahimzadeh managed the production of the publication.
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. It has been assumed that established policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the price of oil1 will average US$107.16 per barrel in 2011 and US$108 in 2012; and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.6 percent in 2011 and 0.9 percent in 2012. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through late March 2011.
The following conventions are used in this publication:
- In tables, ellipsis points (…) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
- An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2009–10 or January-June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2009/10) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2010).
- “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
- “Basis points (bps)” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.1Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
Country and Regional Groupings
The April 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO), covering countries in the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), provides a broad overview of recent economic developments in 2010 and prospects and policy issues for the remainder of 2011. To facilitate the analysis, the 30 MCD countries covered in this report are divided into two groups: (1) countries of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP)–which are further subdivided into oil exporters and oil importers; and (2) countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The country acronyms used in some figures are included in parentheses.
MENAP oil exporters1 comprise Algeria (ALG), Bahrain (BHR), Iran (IRN), Iraq (IRQ), Kuwait (KWT), Libya (LBY), Oman (OMN), Qatar (QAT), Saudi Arabia (SAU), Sudan (SDN), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen (YMN).
MENAP oil importers comprise Afghanistan (AFG), Djibouti (DJI), Egypt (EGY), Jordan (JOR), Lebanon (LBN), Mauritania (MRT), Morocco (MAR), Pakistan (PAK), Syria (SYR), and Tunisia (TUN).
CCA countries comprise Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Georgia (GEO), Kazakhstan (KAZ), the Kyrgyz Republic (KGZ), Tajikistan (TJK), Turkmenistan (TKM), and Uzbekistan (UZB).
In addition, the following geographical groupings are used:
MENA comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Mauritania, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The Maghreb comprises Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Mashreq comprises Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.
The CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) comprises Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the CIS, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure.1Due to the uncertain economic situation, Libya is excluded from the projection years of REO aggregates.