- International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
- Published Date:
- April 2008
©2008 International Monetary Fund
Regional economic outlook : Middle East and Central Asia – [Washington, D.C.] :
International Monetary Fund, 2008.
p. cm. – (World economic and financial surveys)
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Economic forecasting – Middle East. 2. Economic forecasting – Asia, Central. 3. Middle East – Economic conditions. 4. Asia, Central – Economic conditions. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series (World economic and financial surveys)
HC415.15.A1 R445 2008
(US$26.00 to full-time faculty members and students at universities and colleges)
Please send orders to:
International Monetary Fund, Publication Services
700 19th St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A.
Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201
The views expressed in this publication are those of the contributors, and not necessarily of the IMF. The team of principal contributors from the Middle East and Central Asia Department comprised Adam Bennett, Abdelhak Senhadji, Rakia Moalla-Fetini, Mandana Dehghanian, Fiorella Facello, and Patricia Poggi. In addition, country desk economists, research assistants, and mission chiefs provided important contributions.
- Assumptions and Conventions
- Recent Macroeconomic Developments
- Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
- Statistical Appendix
- 1 Georgia: Successful Reforms Since the Rose Revolution
- 2 GCC Capital Flows to MENA Emerging Market Countries
- 3 Iraq: Encouraging Economic Performance in 2007
- 4 The Rise in Inflation in the GCC Countries
- 5 Algeria’s Experience with Managing Hydrocarbon Wealth
- 6 Oil Income: What Is Being Done with It?
- 7 Oil Prices: Fundamentals or Speculation?
- 8 West Bank and Gaza: The Road to Recovery
- 9 Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Spotlight
- 10 Real Estate Prices in the MCD Region
- 1 Global Real GDP Growth
- 2 Real GDP Growth in the MCD Region
- 3 Oil and Non-Oil GDP Growth in Oil Exporters, 2007
- 4 Growth in Emerging Markets
- 5a Consumer Price Inflation: Country Aggregates
- 5b Consumer Price Inflation: Individual Countries
- 6 Nominal Effective Exchange Rates
- 7 Real Effective Exchange Rates
- 8a Government Fiscal Balance: Country Aggregates
- 8b Government Fiscal Balance: Individual Countries
- 9 Total Government Debt
- 10 Government Expenditure in Oil Exporters
- 11 Credit to the Private Sector
- 12 Money and Credit to the Private Sector in Low-Income Countries
- 13a External Current Account Balance: Country Aggregates
- 13b External Current Account Balance: Individual Countries
- 14 Gross Official Reserves
- 15 Stock Market Indices in Selected Countries
- 16 Sovereign Spreads in Selected Countries
- 17 Global Outlook
- 18 International Commodity Prices
- 19 Brent Crude Oil Prices
- 20 Global Growth Forecast
- Statistical Appendix Tables
- 1 Real GDP Growth
- 2 Nominal GDP
- 3 GDP at Purchasing-Power-Parity Prices
- 4 Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth for Oil Exporters
- 5 Crude Oil Production and Exports
- 6 Consumer Price Inflation
- 7 Broad Money Growth
- 8 Central Government Fiscal Balance
- 9 Central Government Total Revenue Excluding Grants
- 10 Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance
- 11 Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue
- 12 Central Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending
- 13 Total Government Debt
- 14 Exports of Goods and Services
- 15 Imports of Goods and Services
- 16 Current Account Balance (in billions of U.S. dollars)
- 17 Current Account Balance (in percent of GDP)
- 18 Real Effective Exchange Rates
- 19 Gross Official Reserves
- 20 Total Gross External Debt
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. It has been assumed that established policies of national authorities will be maintained; that the price of oil will average US$95.50 a barrel in 2008; and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 3.1 percent in 2008. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. Some of the 2007 data in the figures and tables are estimates. These estimates for 2007 and projections for 2008 are based on statistical information available through end-March 2008.
The following conventions are used in this publication:
- In tables, ellipsis points (. . .) indicate “not available,” and 0 or 0.0 indicates “zero” or “negligible.” Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
- An en dash (–) between years or months (for example, 2006–07 or January–June) indicates the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2006/07) indicates a fiscal or financial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2007).
- “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
- “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
This report on the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia is available in full on the IMF’s Internet site, www.imf.org.
Inquiries about the content of the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia should be sent by mail or e-mail (telephone inquiries cannot be accepted) to:
Regional Economic Outlook
Middle East and Central Asia Department
International Monetary Fund
700 19th St. N.W.,
Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A.