- Mark Horton, George Tsibouris, Wojciech Maliszewski, and Mark Flanagan
- Published Date:
- June 2006
Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments
George C. Tsibouris, Mark A. Horton, Mark J. Flanagan, and Wojciech S. Maliszewski
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
© 2006 International Monetary Fund
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Typesetting: Alicia Etchebarne-Bourdin
Experience with large fiscal adjustments/George C. Tsibouris … [et al.]—
Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund .
p. cm.—(Occasional paper; no. 246)
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Fiscal policy. 2. Fiscal policy—Case studies. 3. Fiscal policy—Developing countries. 4. International Monetary Fund. I. Tsibouris, George C. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund); no. 246.
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- I Overview
- II Introduction
- III What Is a “Large” Fiscal Adjustment?
- IV What Sustains a Large Fiscal Adjustment?
- V Macroeconomic Impact of Large Fiscal Adjustments
- VI Conclusions
- Text Tables
- 3.1. Episodes of Fiscal Adjustment by Size and Length, 1971–2001
- 3.2. Pre-Adjustment Macroeconomic Context
- 3.3. Pre-Adjustment Financing Context
- 3.4. Pre-Adjustment Budget Structure
- 4.1. Components of Sustained Versus Reversed Fiscal Adjustments
- 4.2. Success of Fiscal Adjustment in Case Studies
- 4.3. Initial Conditions and Fiscal Adjustment
- 4.4. Enduring Adjustments: Up-Front Versus Gradual Cases
- 4.5. Components of Forced Versus Discretionary Fiscal Adjustments
- 4.6. Results from Proportional Hazard Model for Duration of Large Fiscal Adjustments
- Text Figures
- Appendix Tables
- A1.1. Data Set: Country Coverage
- A1.2. Data Sources and Transformations
- A2.1. Large Fiscal Adjustment Episodes
- A3.1. Context for Adjustment
- A3.2. Adjustment Design
- A3.3. Impact of Fiscal Adjustment
- A3.4. Key Fiscal Structural Reforms and Subnational Adjustments
- A3.5. Macroeconomic Impact of Large Fiscal Adjustment
- A3.6. Role of the IMF
- Appendix Figures
The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
- … to indicate that data are not available;
- — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
- – between years or months (e.g., 2003–04 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
- / between years (e.g., 2003/04) to indicate a fiscal (financial) year.
“n.a.” means not applicable.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
This Occasional Paper analyzes the experience of countries that have implemented very sizable fiscal adjustments over the past three decades. It aims to identify key conditions and institutional approaches that have contributed to sustained outcomes and to favorable macroeconomic developments. In this way, the paper may provide operational guidance to policymakers. The paper was prepared by George Tsibouris, Mark Horton, Mark Flanagan, and Wojciech Maliszewski while they were in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD).
The authors would like to thank Teresa Ter-Minassian, Jeff Davis, Sanjeev Gupta, and Rolando Ossowski for their guidance and advice on this study. Useful comments and suggestions were also provided by Anupam Basu, Adrienne Cheasty, Alfredo Cuevas, James Daniel, Xavier Debrun, Liam Ebrill, Hans Flickenschild, Manal Fouad, Michael Keen, Steven Symansky, and Ricardo Velloso. We are also grateful for feedback provided by participants in the annual FAD Academic Panel Conference in January 2004. Case studies were prepared by Thomas Baunsgaard, Ana Corbacho, Stephan Danninger, Lubin Doe, Stefano Fassina, Mark Flanagan, Mark Horton, and Antonio Spilimbergo. Luis Blancas and Noel Perez Benitez provided excellent research assistance throughout, while Anna Mateos-Perry and Juliet Narsiah ably assisted in preparing the manuscript. Archana Kumar of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication.
Opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of its authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Directors, or national authorities.