- Thomas Helbling, and Sena Eken
- Published Date:
- June 1999
Back to the Future Postwar Reconstruction and Stabilization in Lebanon
Edited by Sena Eken and Thomas Helbling
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
© 1999 International Monetary Fund
Production: IMF Graphics Section
Figures: In-Ok Yoon
Typesetting: Julio R. Prego
Back to the future : postwar reconstruction and stabilization in Lebanon/edited by Sena Eken and Thomas Helbling.—Washington, D, C.: International Monetary Fund, 1999.
p. cm.—(Occasional paper, ISSN 0251-6365; no. 176)
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Reconstruction—Lebanon. 2. Economic stabilization—Lebanon. 3. Finance, Public—Lebanon. 4. Fiscal policy—Lebanon. 5. Interest rates—Lebanon. 6. Debts, Public—Lebanon. 7. European Union—Lebanon. 8. Lebanon–Economic policy. 9. Lebanon–Economic conditions—Statistics. I. Eken, Sena. II. Helbling, Thomas. III. International Monetary Fund. IV. Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund);
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- I Reconstruction and Stabilization—An Overview
- Sena Eken
- II Public Investment Planning and Progress
- John Wetter
- III Postwar Reconstruction, Public Finances, and Fiscal Sustainability
- Thomas Helbling
- IV Dynamics of Interest Rate Movements: An Empirical Study
- Taline Urné chlian with Sena Eken and Thomas Helbling
- V Issues in Public Debt Management
- Thomas Helbling
- VI Financial Sector Developments
- Klaus Enders
- VII Association Agreement Between Lebanon and the European Union
- Annalisa Fedelino
- Statistical Appendix
- 2.1. Horizon 2000 Program: Sectoral Distribution of Actual and Projected Public Expenditures, Contracts Awarded, and Contracts in Preparation
- 2.2. Horizon 2000 Program: Original Financing Scenario
- 2.3. Horizon 2000 Program: “Documented” Foreign Funding as of December 31, 1997
- 2.4. Government Projects Available to Private Investors
- 7.1. Composition of Imports by Source, 1996
- 7.2. Weighted Average Tariff Rates and Import Shares, 1995
- 7.3. Protection Against Lebanese Exports, 1995
- 7.4. Some Effects of Trade Liberalization
- 7.5. Reduction Factor for Tariff Rates During the Transition Period of the Association Agreement
- 7.6. Average Effective Rates of Protection
- 6.1. Real Interest Rates
- 6.2. Financial Deepening and Dollarization
- 6.3. A Cross-Country Comparison of Liquidity Ratios
- 6.4. A Cross-Country Comparison of Credit Ratios
- 6.5. A Cross-Country Comparison of Money Multipliers
- 6.6. A Cross-Country Comparison of Private Sector Credit Financing
- 6.7. A Cross-Country Comparison of the Share of Commercial Banks in the Banking System
- 6.8. Interest Rate Spreads in Banking
- 6.9. Stock and Bond Markets
- Statistical Appendix Tables
- Al. Selected Social, Economic, and Financial Indicators
- A2. Selected Indicators of Sectoral Economic Activity
- A3. Aggregate Demand
- A4. Consumer Price Index
- A5. Real Wages and Unit Labor Costs
- A6. Government Operations
- A7. Public Debt
- A8. Treasury Bills in Circulation
- A9. Central Bank Balance Sheet
- A10. Commercial Banks’ Balance Sheet
- A11. Monetary Survey
- A12. Factors Affecting Changes in Total Liquidity (M3)
- A13. Discounts and Yields on Three-Month Treasury Bills
- A14. Commercial Bank Interest Rates on Lebanese Pound Transactions
- A15. Balance of Payments.
- A16. Composition of Industrial Exports
- A17. Destination of Exports
- A18. Sources of Imports
- A19. Exchange Rate of the Lebanese Pound
- A20. Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates of the Lebanese Pound
The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
- … to indicate that data are not available;
- n.a. to indicate not applicable;
- —to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
- – between years or months (e.g., 1994–95 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
- / between years (e.g., 1994/95) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
In this Occasional Paper, the progress of Lebanon’s postwar reconstruction and stabilization efforts in the last five to six years are examined. The studies were prepared in conjunction with the 1997 Article IV consultation with Lebanon. They were updated in the fall of 1998 to take into account developments in the first half of the year, reflecting data and developments through June 1998.
The authors are grateful to the Lebanese authorities for their cooperation. His Excellency, Dr. Nasser Saidi, the Vice Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon when the Occasional Paper was prepared and now Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry, took a special interest in this project, and his comments and support are greatly appreciated. The authors would also like to thank Paul Chabrier and Mohamed El-Erian for their encouragement, Cyrus Sassanpour for valuable comments, Margaret Boesch, Deborah Chungu, Barbara Lissenburg, and Eleanor Wood for secretarial assistance, and Juanita Roushdy of the External Relations Department for editing the manuscript and coordinating publication.
The views expressed here, as well as any errors, are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Lebanese authorities, the IMF, or its Executive Directors.