- Sheetal Chand, and Albert Jaeger
- Published Date:
- December 1996
Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes
By Sheetal K. Chand and Albert Jaeger
A Staff Team from the Fiscal Affairs Department
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
© 1996 International Monetary Fund
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Chand, Sheetal K.
Aging populations and public pension schemes / by Sheetal K. Chand and Albert Jaeger with a staff team from the Fiscal Affairs Department.
p. cm. — (Occasional paper, ISSN 0251-6365 ; 147)
Includes bibliographical references (p.)
1. Old age pensions. 2. Aged — Economic conditions. 3. Population forecasting. I. Jaeger, Albert. II. International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. III. Title. IV. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund); no. 147.
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- Introduction and Summary
- Identifying Fiscal Consequences
- Reform Options
- Fiscal Reforms Unrelated to Pensions
- Parametric Reforms
- Systemic Reforms of Defined Contribution Type
- Restructured Defined-Benefit System
- Cost of Alternative Reforms
- Tables Section II
- 5. Projections of Averages of Macroeconomic Variables, 1995–2050
- 6. Projections of Pension Replacement Rates, Support Ratios, and Pension Contribution Rates
- 7. Baseline Projections of Pension Expenditure, Balances, and Net Asset Positions
- 8. Net Pension Liabilities and Sustainability of Fiscal Stance
- 9. Sustainable Contribution Rates and Contribution Gaps
- 10. Sensitivity of Estimated Net Pension Liabilities and Contribution Gaps to Real GDP Growth and Interest Rate Assumptions
- 11. Effect of Postponement of Pension Reform
- 12. Effect of Changes in Pension Benefit Formulas on Contribution Gaps
- 13. Effect of Different Indexation Schemes on Contribution Gaps
- 14. Effect of CPI Indexation on Pension Replacement Rates: Illustrative Examples
- 15. Effect of Changes in Retirement Ages on Contribution Gaps
- 16. Decomposition of Gross Liabilities of Public Pension Systems, 1995–2050
- 17. Fiscal Implications of a Gradual Transition to a Fully Funded System, 1995–2050
- 18. Fiscal Implications of a Sudden Transition to a Fully Funded System, 1995–2050
- 19. Sustainable Fiscal Stance Under Different Systemic Pension Reform Options, 1995–2050
- Charts Section II
The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
- … to indicate that data are not available;
- — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
- – between years or months (e.g., 1991–92 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
- / between years (e.g., 1991/92) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
This study was prepared in the Fiscal Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund by Sheetal K. Chand, Chief, Fiscal Analysis Division, in collaboration with Albert Jaeger. The study draws on a number of papers on the public pension systems in the major industrial countries, prepared by a staff team from the Fiscal Affairs Department including Frederick Ribe, Etienne de Callatay, Marco Annunziata, and Domenico Fanizza. Useful comments and advice were received from Lans Bovenberg, Daniele Franco, and Estelle James, and from many colleagues at the Fund, in particular from Peter Heller, Liam Ebrill, and Steven Symansky. The authors wish to thank Amina Elmi for research assistance, Diana Ellyn and Beulah David for secretarial aid, and Yvonne Liem for help on the bibliography. David Driscoll of the External Relations Department edited the study for publication and coordinated its production.
The study was originally prepared for a seminar of the Executive Board of the Fund. In the seminar, Executive Directors expressed a wide range of views with regard to the appropriate approach to pension reform and the pertinence of the analysis and recommendations presented in this study. The present version reflects comments and suggestions made by a number of Executive Directors. However, the study should be taken as expressing solely the views of the authors and not those of the Executive Directors or the Fund.