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Bulgaria: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation—Supplementary Information

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Published Date:
November 2016
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The purpose of this supplement is to inform the Board about recent revisions of Bulgaria’s national accounts and the latest economic developments. This information does not change the thrust of the staff appraisal.

1. Revised national accounts data from Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute show higher real and nominal GDP growth in 2015. Real GDP growth was revised up from 3.0 to 3.6 percent for 2015 and from 3.0 to 3½ percent for the first half of 2016 (y/y). Domestic demand, especially private consumption, turned out to be stronger in 2015 than suggested by the previous data, while the contribution from net exports was weaker. Along the same lines, the current account surplus in 2015 was revised downward by about 1 percentage point of GDP, as a slightly better service balance was not enough to offset lower trade and primary income balances. The GDP deflator was also revised up, resulting in an upward revision of 2015 nominal GDP growth by 2½ percentage points. The text table shows key changes in the data.1

Bulgaria: Selected Economic Indicators Affected by the Revision, 2012–2015(Annual percentage change, unless noted otherwise)
Pre-revisionPost-revision
20122013201420152012201320142015
Real GDP0.21.31.53.00.00.91.33.6
Final consumption2.5−0.72.20.72.0−1.92.23.8
Investment2.1−2.34.12.32.3−2.14.22.2
Net exports 1/−2.32.4−1.11.9−2.02.8−1.30.1
GDP deflator1.6−0.70.40.31.6−0.70.52.2
Current account 2/−0.91.30.91.4−0.91.30.10.4
Source: Bulgarian authorities.

Contribution to GDP growth.

Percent of GDP.

Source: Bulgarian authorities.

Contribution to GDP growth.

Percent of GDP.

2. Based on the revised data, staff has raised the GDP growth projection for 2016 to 3¼ percent from 3 percent in the staff report. This change reflects increased carryover from 2015 and the stronger outturn for the first half of 2016. The projections for medium-term actual growth and potential growth were maintained at around 2½ percent as the longer term constraints to higher growth as laid out in the staff report remain unchanged (see paragraph 8 of the staff report). The revised growth projection does not change staff’s overall assessment about Bulgaria’s external position in 2015 (see Annex I of staff report) or about the country’s debt sustainability (see Annex II of the staff report).

3. The revision to nominal GDP implies a small improvement in key macroeconomic ratios. For example, as a result of the higher denominator, the 2015 government debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 25.6 percent of GDP (from 26.3 percent previously), and the 2015 fiscal cash deficit fell to 2.8 percent of GDP (compared to 2.9 percent). Similarly, the external debt dropped to 76.1 percent of GDP (from 78.1 percent previously). Staff projections for government and external debt and fiscal deficit in terms of GDP have also been revised slightly downward. A complete set of tables with the revised historical data and updated projections is attached.

4. Based on new releases staff has also slightly raised the inflation projection for 2016. Recent data releases show a decelerating pace of declines in energy and transportation prices. Incorporating these data, staff has revised up the average HICP inflation projection for 2016 to -1.3 percent from -1.6 percent in the staff report.

Table 1.Bulgaria: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2012–21(Annual percentage change, unless noted otherwise)
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Proj.
Real GDP0.00.91.33.63.32.92.52.52.52.5
Real domestic demand2.0−1.92.63.52.93.12.72.72.52.5
Public consumption−1.90.60.01.32.62.61.81.41.12.0
Private consumption3.0−2.52.74.53.83.43.03.02.82.6
Gross capital formation2.3−2.14.22.20.52.62.52.62.62.6
Private investment−2.1−2.60.3−3.74.52.41.91.91.91.8
Public investment20.311.414.021.4−9.03.44.14.34.64.8
Stock building 4/0.1−0.50.2−0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net exports 4/−2.02.8−1.30.10.3−0.2−0.2−0.20.00.0
Exports of goods and services2.09.63.15.74.23.53.63.84.04.0
Imports of goods and services5.54.35.25.43.63.73.94.14.04.0
Resource utilization
Potential GDP2.21.51.62.32.42.42.52.52.52.5
Output gap (percent of potential GDP)−1.7−2.4−2.7−1.4−0.5−0.10.00.00.00.0
Unemployment rate (percent of labor force)12.413.011.59.28.27.16.96.76.66.5
Price
GDP deflator1.6−0.70.52.2−0.30.61.61.92.12.1
Consumer price index (HICP, end of period)2.8−0.9−2.0−0.9−0.81.41.82.02.12.1
Fiscal indicators
General government net lending/borrowing (cash basis) 1/−0.4−1.8−3.6−2.8−0.7−1.1−0.7−0.30.00.0
General government primary balance 1/0.3−0.9−3.0−2.00.0−0.20.20.60.90.9
Structural overall balance (percent of GDP)0.2−0.9−2.7−2.3−0.5−1.1−0.7−0.30.00.0
Structural primary balance (percent of GDP)0.90.0−2.0−1.50.2−0.20.20.60.90.9
General government gross debt 2/16.717.226.425.628.725.425.124.323.222.2
Monetary aggregates 3/
Broad money8.48.91.18.85.64.95.55.96.06.1
Domestic private credit2.80.3−7.7−1.61.26.57.27.27.37.3
Exchange rates regime
Leva per U.S. dollar (end of period)1.481.421.611.79
Nominal effective rate−1.82.52.9−1.3
External sector
Current account balance 1/−0.91.30.10.41.60.50.0−0.4−1.0−1.7
o/w: Merchandise trade balance 1/−9.5−7.0−6.5−5.8−6.3−6.9−6.9−6.9−7.0−7.0
Sources: Bulgarian authorities; World Development Indicators; and IMF staff estimates.

Percent of GDP.

In projection period, largely reflects issuance and repayment of eurobonds.

Due to the revocation of the banking license of KTB, the bank is excluded as a reporting agent from the monetary statistics data starting in November 2014.

Contribution to GDP growth.

Sources: Bulgarian authorities; World Development Indicators; and IMF staff estimates.

Percent of GDP.

In projection period, largely reflects issuance and repayment of eurobonds.

Due to the revocation of the banking license of KTB, the bank is excluded as a reporting agent from the monetary statistics data starting in November 2014.

Contribution to GDP growth.

Table 2.Bulgaria: Macroeconomic Framework, 2012–21
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Proj.
GDP and prices (percent change)
Real GDP0.00.91.33.63.32.92.52.52.52.5
Real domestic demand2.0−1.92.63.52.93.12.72.72.52.5
Of which: private2.0−3.12.42.73.93.22.82.82.62.4
GDP deflator1.6−0.70.52.2−0.30.61.61.92.12.1
Consumer price index (HICP, average)2.40.4−1.6−1.1−1.30.61.61.92.12.1
Nominal wages6.66.06.08.88.17.46.76.05.34.6
Real effective exchange rate, CPI based−2.01.3−0.5−3.2
Monetary aggregates (percent change) 1/
Broad money8.48.91.18.85.64.95.55.96.00.0
Domestic private credit2.80.3−7.7−1.65.16.47.27.27.37.3
Saving and investment (percent of GDP)
Foreign saving0.9−1.3−0.1−0.4−1.6−0.50.00.41.01.7
Gross national saving21.122.621.521.623.622.922.321.821.320.7
Government4.03.11.74.84.75.45.35.76.16.2
Private17.119.519.816.818.817.517.016.115.314.6
Gross domestic investment21.921.321.421.221.922.422.222.222.422.5
Government4.44.85.37.65.56.55.96.06.16.2
Private17.616.516.113.616.415.916.316.216.316.3
General government (percent of GDP)
Revenue32.333.833.735.034.835.735.435.635.835.9
Tax revenue (including social security contributions)25.125.726.026.727.828.128.328.428.428.4
Non-Tax revenue4.44.84.14.24.34.94.34.34.34.3
Grants2.93.23.54.12.82.72.93.03.23.3
Expenditure32.835.537.337.835.636.836.135.935.835.9
Balance (net lending/borrowing on cash basis)−0.4−1.8−3.6−2.8−0.7−1.1−0.7−0.30.00.0
Structural balance0.2−0.9−2.7−2.3−0.5−1.1−0.7−0.30.00.0
Balance of payments (percent of GDP)
Current account−0.91.30.10.41.60.50.0−0.4−1.0−1.7
Trade balance−9.5−7.0−6.5−5.8−6.3−6.9−6.9−6.9−7.0−7.0
Services balance6.26.35.96.87.27.27.17.07.06.9
Primary income balance−2.5−3.8−3.1−4.3−2.4−2.8−3.3−3.9−4.5−5.2
Secondary income balance5.05.73.83.63.13.03.13.43.43.5
Capital and financial account1.31.12.23.12.32.22.22.12.12.2
of which: Foreign direct investment−2.5−3.0−2.1−3.5−3.1−3.0−3.1−3.3−3.5−3.6
Memorandum items:
Gross international reserves (billions of euros)15.614.416.520.321.722.423.324.024.424.5
Short-term external debt (percent of GDP) 2/24.722.823.317.717.116.415.414.914.013.2
Export volume (percent change)−2.511.23.16.82.53.73.84.03.94.2
Import volume (percent change)2.75.33.46.23.63.73.94.14.04.0
Terms of trade (percent change)2.70.30.1−0.9−0.7−0.80.20.0−0.3−0.2
Output gap (percent of potential GDP)−1.7−2.4−2.7−1.4−0.5−0.10.00.00.00.0
Nominal GDP (millions of leva)82,04082,16683,63488,57191,22094,43198,357102,740107,480112,480
Nominal GDP (millions of euros)41,94742,01142,76245,28646,64048,28250,28952,53054,95457,510
Sources: Bulgarian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Due to the revocation of the banking license of KTB, the bank is excluded as a reporting agent from the monetary statistics data starting in November 2014.

At original maturity.

Sources: Bulgarian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.

Due to the revocation of the banking license of KTB, the bank is excluded as a reporting agent from the monetary statistics data starting in November 2014.

At original maturity.

Table 3.Bulgaria: Real GDP Components, 2012–21
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Proj.
(Real growth rate, in percent)
GDP0.00.91.33.63.32.92.52.52.52.5
Domestic demand2.0−1.92.63.52.93.12.72.72.52.5
Private demand2.0−3.12.42.73.93.22.82.82.62.4
Public demand2.12.93.26.4−0.82.82.52.22.02.8
Final consumption2.0−1.92.23.83.53.22.82.72.42.5
Private consumption3.0−2.52.74.53.83.43.03.02.82.6
Public consumption−1.90.60.01.32.62.61.81.41.12.0
Investment2.3−2.14.22.20.52.62.52.62.62.6
Gross fixed investment1.80.33.42.70.52.72.52.62.62.7
Private investment−2.1−2.60.3−3.74.52.41.91.91.91.8
Public investment20.311.414.021.4−9.03.44.14.34.64.8
Inventories 1/0.1−0.50.2−0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net exports 1/−2.02.8−1.30.10.3−0.2−0.2−0.20.00.0
Exports of goods and services2.09.63.15.74.23.53.63.84.04.0
Imports of goods and services5.54.35.25.43.63.73.94.14.04.0
(Contribution to real GDP growth, in percent)
Domestic demand2.1−2.02.63.63.03.12.72.72.52.5
Private demand1.7−2.62.02.23.12.62.22.32.12.0
Public demand0.40.60.71.4−0.20.60.50.50.40.6
Final consumption1.6−1.51.73.12.92.62.22.22.02.0
Private consumption1.9−1.61.72.92.52.21.92.01.81.7
Public consumption−0.30.10.00.20.40.40.30.20.20.3
Investment0.5−0.50.90.50.10.60.50.50.60.5
Gross fixed investment0.40.10.70.60.10.60.50.50.50.6
Private investment−0.4−0.40.0−0.60.70.40.30.30.30.3
Public investment0.70.50.71.2−0.60.20.20.20.30.3
Inventories0.1−0.50.2−0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net exports−2.02.8−1.30.10.3−0.2−0.2−0.20.00.0
Exports of goods and services1.15.51.93.62.72.22.42.52.72.7
Imports of goods and services3.22.63.23.52.42.52.62.72.72.8
Sources: Bulgaria National Statistical Institute; and IMF staff estimates.

Contributions to GDP growth.

Sources: Bulgaria National Statistical Institute; and IMF staff estimates.

Contributions to GDP growth.

Table 4.Bulgaria: Balance of Payments, 2012–21
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Proj.
(Millions of euros)
Current account balance−3585363517276625021−202−573−1,003
Trade balance−3,992−2,933−2,777−2,622−2,929−3,327−3,459−3,604−3,838−4,007
Exports (f.o.b.)19,67521,21821,02621,92020,98322,29823,37224,36725,40526,731
Imports (f.o.b.)23,66724,15123,80324,54223,91225,62526,83127,97129,24330,739
Services balance2,5892,6532,5143,0833,3633,4703,5833,6713,8473,979
Exports of non-factor services5,8175,8886,7387,0807,2457,6447,9538,2278,6108,986
Imports of non-factor services3,2293,2354,2243,9983,8814,1744,3714,5564,7645,007
Primary Income balance−1,053−1,581−1,319−1,930−1,097−1,357−1,669−2,037−2,469−2,972
Receipts7248749299519791,0081,0411,0761,1131,152
Payments1,7772,4552,2482,8812,0772,3652,7103,1133,5834,124
Secondary income balance2,0992,3961,6161,6421,4291,4641,5661,7681,8871,997
Capital and financial account balance1,5031,3566774,5682,8672,3632,2731,9821,7751,488
Capital transfer balance5464699601,4221,0501,0571,1261,0931,1741,246
Foreign direct investment balance−1,068−1,243−882−1,596−1,443−1,444−1,554−1,723−1,903−2,091
Portfolio investment balance891132−1,212−578−341−178−8512112218
Other investment balance−9842,424221,5772,1702,2341,8131,8881,9732,064
Errors and omissions768−118−1,2771,552000000
Overall balance1,1451,8927134,7401,41868196070040540
Financing−1,145−1,892−713−4,740−1,418−681−960−700−405−40
Gross international reserves (increase: -)−2,121532−1,807−3,730−1,418−681−959−699−405−39
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Memorandum items:
Current account balance−0.91.30.10.41.60.50.0−0.4−1.0−1.7
Merchandise trade balance−9.5−7.0−6.5−5.8−6.3−6.9−6.9−6.9−7.0−7.0
Exports46.950.549.248.445.046.246.546.446.246.5
Imports56.457.555.754.251.353.153.453.253.253.4
Foreign direct investment balance−2.5−3.0−2.1−3.5−3.1−3.0−3.1−3.3−3.5−3.6
Terms of trade (merchandise, percent change)2.70.30.1−0.9−0.7−0.80.20.0−0.3−0.2
Exports of goods (volume, growth rate)−2.511.23.16.82.53.73.84.03.94.2
Imports of goods (volume, growth rate)2.75.33.46.23.63.73.94.14.04.0
Exports of goods (prices, growth rate)5.9−3.1−4.7−2.9−6.03.30.80.20.61.1
Imports of goods (prices, growth rate)5.9−3.0−3.9−2.4−6.62.51.00.20.30.9
GDP (millions of euro)41,94742,01142,76245,28646,64148,28250,29052,53154,95457,511
Sources: Bulgarian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Sources: Bulgarian authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Table 5.Bulgaria: External Financial Assets and Liabilities, 2012–21
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Proj.
(Millions of euros)
International investment position−32,710−30,657−32,271−27,219−25,339−24,046−22,913−22,036−21,449−21,220
Financial assets30,25431,26536,02238,00539,57141,12743,09544,94546,65248,154
Foreign direct investment3,4053,5754,0114,0784,2454,4674,6994,9415,1955,460
Portfolio investment4,3734,9395,5265,0505,0365,1945,4585,8336,3256,939
Other investments6,9258,3269,9518,5918,5879,0829,59410,12810,68611,269
Gross international reserves15,55314,42616,53420,28521,70322,38423,34324,04324,44824,487
Financial liabilities62,96461,92368,29365,22464,91065,17366,00766,98168,10269,375
Foreign direct investment37,81437,50041,12240,27241,88243,54845,33447,30049,45651,812
Portfolio investment1,9352,3893,9484,5024,8295,1665,5145,8776,2566,653
Other liabilities23,13122,02323,14920,37318,19916,46015,15913,80412,38910,909
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
International investment position−77.9−72.8−75.4−60.0−54.3−49.8−45.6−41.9−39.0−36.9
Financial assets72.174.484.283.984.885.285.785.684.983.7
Foreign direct investment8.18.59.49.09.19.39.39.49.59.5
Portfolio investment10.411.812.911.210.810.810.911.111.512.1
Other investments16.519.823.319.018.418.819.119.319.419.6
Gross international reserves37.134.338.744.846.546.446.445.844.542.6
Financial liabilities150.1147.4159.7144.0139.2135.0131.3127.5123.9120.6
Foreign direct investment90.189.396.288.989.890.290.190.090.090.1
Portfolio investment4.65.79.29.910.410.711.011.211.411.6
Other liabilities55.152.454.145.039.034.130.126.322.519.0
Memorandum items:
Gross external debt89.987.992.076.177.772.569.366.362.959.2
Public 1/8.58.114.112.516.213.312.912.412.111.6
Private81.479.877.963.761.559.156.453.950.847.7
Short-term24.722.821.017.717.116.415.414.914.013.2
Long-term56.757.056.945.944.542.841.039.036.834.5
Net external debt 2/52.853.653.431.431.226.122.920.518.416.7
Sources: BNB; NSI; and IMF staff estimates.

General government, excluding publicly-guaranteed private debt.

Gross debt minus gross international reserves.

Sources: BNB; NSI; and IMF staff estimates.

General government, excluding publicly-guaranteed private debt.

Gross debt minus gross international reserves.

Table 6a.Bulgaria: General Government Operations, 2012–21 1/(Millions of leva, unless otherwise indicated)
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Proj.
Revenue26,51627,73528,14530,96431,78233,68834,83536,60738,48340,393
Taxes15,93316,31016,57917,90919,23820,01820,86521,81722,82823,893
Taxes on profits1,4781,5531,6791,8601,9642,0602,1702,2832,3962,519
Taxes on income2,2982,3482,5962,7312,8582,9963,1223,2463,3943,550
Value-added taxes7,1527,3667,2647,7408,4818,7189,0689,4849,92010,375
Excises4,0484,0564,0394,5254,8595,1305,3435,5935,8516,123
Customs duties118146149159163168175183192201
Other taxes8408408518939139459851,0281,0761,126
Social contributions4,6424,8185,1875,6996,1186,4826,9447,3177,6608,012
Grants2,3682,6562,9223,6482,5442,5692,8403,1003,4203,700
Other revenue 2/3,5733,9513,4573,7093,8824,6194,1864,3734,5744,787
Expenditure26,87429,17531,19333,44932,45134,72635,50036,89938,48240,381
Expense22,88924,55125,54525,93027,04728,15229,14030,20031,40932,877
Compensation of employees4,2394,5604,6784,7124,8374,9825,1315,2855,4595,691
Use of goods and services4,4444,6034,4794,2634,7995,0175,2215,3445,4525,689
Interest573689580698695855851881922965
External374484337431431581572574601629
Domestic199204243267264275279307321336
Subsidies1,2281,3071,4521,6341,5351,7051,7761,8561,9412,031
Grants 3/8099349559461,0101,0011,0561,0671,1161,168
Social benefits11,48212,33213,26813,54314,08214,50015,01315,67516,42717,241
Pensions7,2347,7628,1368,4338,7278,9579,2719,67710,09810,566
Social assistance2,0672,1602,3172,4242,4452,5312,6372,7542,9013,052
Health Insurance Fund2,1812,4102,8152,6872,9093,0123,1053,2443,4273,623
Other expense114127133134909191919191
Contingency 4/3856441,186767407462511512557582
Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets 5/3,6003,9814,4626,7514,9976,1135,8496,1876,5166,922
Net lending/borrowing 1/−359−1,441−3,048−2,484−669−1,039−665−292012
Primary balance214−752−2,468−1,78626−183186589922977
Financing3591,4413,0482,4846691,0396652920−12
Privatization proceeds76161843200000
Net external financing2,047−6905,7841,4493,739−2,21315217277−4
Disbursements2,3271,1196,0916,4384,09405002932,0002,700
Amortization−280−1,809−307−4,988−355−2,213−348−276−1,723−2,704
Net domestic financing−1,7492,151−1,279−925−3,0863,266528290−2627
Bank credit / Securities issuance3031,7575,654−197938001,7731,3117591,028
Amortization−970−1,006−3,497−2,234−1,051−1,179−1,244−1,021−1,021−1,021
Fiscal Reserve Account−1,0821,400−3,4361,328−2,8283,2660000
Net lending and other items−16−38−1,5871,952−15−15−15−15−15−15
Memorandum items:
Fiscal reserve account6,0814,6818,1176,7899,6176,3516,3516,3516,3516,351
Gross public debt13,67414,11922,10222,71426,19523,98224,66324,97024,98524,988
Nominal GDP (percent change)1.60.21.85.93.03.54.24.54.64.7
Real GDP (percent change)0.00.91.33.63.32.92.52.52.52.5
HICP inflation (percent change)2.40.4−1.6−1.1−1.30.61.61.92.12.1
Nominal private consumption (percent ch.)6.7−5.02.75.72.44.04.64.94.84.6
Nominal imports (percent change)10.61.82.31.8−2.67.24.74.24.55.1
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and staff estimates.

On cash basis. The 2016 projections do not reflect the government loan to the National Electricity Company that is currently under discussion.

Includes dividends.

Contribution to EU budget.

The contingency reserve in 2012 includes BGN 261 million for the Health Insurance Fund.

Includes only acquisitions of nonfinancial assets, i.e., capital expenditure.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and staff estimates.

On cash basis. The 2016 projections do not reflect the government loan to the National Electricity Company that is currently under discussion.

Includes dividends.

Contribution to EU budget.

The contingency reserve in 2012 includes BGN 261 million for the Health Insurance Fund.

Includes only acquisitions of nonfinancial assets, i.e., capital expenditure.

Table 6b.Bulgaria: General Government Operations, 2012–21 1/(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Proj.
Revenue32.333.833.735.034.835.735.435.635.835.9
Taxes19.419.919.820.221.121.221.221.221.221.2
Taxes on profits1.81.92.02.12.22.22.22.22.22.2
Taxes on income2.82.93.13.13.13.23.23.23.23.2
Value-added taxes8.79.08.78.79.39.29.29.29.29.2
Excises4.94.94.85.15.35.45.45.45.45.4
Customs duties0.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.20.2
Other taxes1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0
Social contributions5.75.96.26.46.76.97.17.17.17.1
Grants2.93.23.54.12.82.72.93.03.23.3
Other revenue 2/4.44.84.14.24.34.94.34.34.34.3
Expenditure32.835.537.337.835.636.836.135.935.835.9
Expense27.929.930.529.329.729.829.629.429.229.2
Compensation of employees5.25.55.65.35.35.35.25.15.15.1
Use of goods and services5.45.65.44.85.35.35.35.25.15.1
Interest0.70.80.70.80.80.90.90.90.90.9
External0.50.60.40.50.50.60.60.60.60.6
Domestic0.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.30.3
Subsidies1.51.61.71.81.71.81.81.81.81.8
Grants 3/1.01.11.11.11.11.11.11.01.01.0
Social benefits14.015.015.915.315.415.415.315.315.315.3
Pensions8.89.49.79.59.69.59.49.49.49.4
Social assistance2.52.62.82.72.72.72.72.72.72.7
Health Insurance Fund2.72.93.43.03.23.23.23.23.23.2
Other expense0.10.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.1
Contingency 4/0.50.81.40.90.40.50.50.50.50.5
Net acquisition of nonfinancial assets 5/4.44.85.37.65.56.55.96.06.16.2
Net lending/borrowing 1/−0.4−1.8−3.6−2.8−0.7−1.1−0.7−0.30.00.0
Primary balance0.3−0.9−3.0−2.00.0−0.20.20.60.90.9
Financing0.41.83.62.80.71.10.70.30.00.0
Privatization proceeds0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Net external financing2.5−0.86.91.64.1−2.30.20.00.30.0
Disbursements2.81.47.37.34.50.00.50.31.92.4
Amortization−0.3−2.2−0.4−5.6−0.4−2.3−0.4−0.3−1.6−2.4
Net domestic financing−2.12.6−1.5−1.0−3.43.50.50.3−0.20.0
Securities issuance0.42.16.80.00.90.81.81.30.70.9
Amortization−1.2−1.2−4.2−2.5−1.2−1.2−1.3−1.0−1.0−0.9
Fiscal Reserve Account−1.31.7−4.11.5−3.13.50.00.00.00.0
Net lending and other items0.00.0−1.92.20.00.00.00.00.00.0
Memorandum items:
Gross public debt16.717.226.425.628.725.425.124.323.222.2
Structural fiscal balance0.2−0.9−2.7−2.3−0.5−1.1−0.7−0.30.00.0
Output gap (percent of potential GDP)−1.7−2.4−2.7−1.4−0.5−0.10.00.00.00.0
Nominal GDP (millions of leva)82,04082,16683,63488,57191,22094,43198,357102,740107,480112,480
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and IMF staff estimates.

On cash basis. The 2016 projections do not reflect the government loan to the National Electricity Company that is currently under discussion.

Includes dividends.

Contribution to EU budget.

The contingency reserve in 2012 includes BGN 261 million for the Health Insurance Fund.

Includes only acquisitions of nonfinancial assets, i.e. capital expenditure.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and IMF staff estimates.

On cash basis. The 2016 projections do not reflect the government loan to the National Electricity Company that is currently under discussion.

Includes dividends.

Contribution to EU budget.

The contingency reserve in 2012 includes BGN 261 million for the Health Insurance Fund.

Includes only acquisitions of nonfinancial assets, i.e. capital expenditure.

Table 7.Bulgaria: General Government Stock Position, 2007–2014(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
20082009201020112012201320142015
Net financial worth9.75.73.01.41.1−1.4−3.2−5.2
Financial assets30.629.426.824.226.324.431.327.3
Monetary gold and SDRs
Currency and deposits14.012.39.88.19.98.311.18.5
Debt securities0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Loans1.81.71.51.31.21.12.11.5
Equity and investment funds shares9.310.711.210.410.18.710.19.4
Insurance, pensions, and standardized guarantee schemes0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Financial derivatives and employee stock options
Other accounts receivable5.54.64.34.35.16.38.07.9
Liabilities20.923.623.822.825.225.834.532.5
Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Currency and deposits0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Debt securities8.38.69.79.512.211.516.619.5
Loans4.85.76.26.15.86.710.66.6
Equity and investment funds shares0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Insurance, pensions, and standardized guarantee schemes0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Financial derivatives and employee stock options0.30.10.10.20.20.20.20.3
Other accounts receivable7.69.37.87.16.97.37.26.2
Memorandum items
Gross debt (at market value)20.623.523.722.725.025.534.332.2
Gross debt (at face value)20.623.023.122.324.525.234.132.2
Gross debt (Maastricht definition)13.013.715.315.217.517.927.026.0
Nominal GDP (billions of leva)72.873.074.880.882.082.283.688.6
Sources: Eurostat; and IMF staff calculations.
Sources: Eurostat; and IMF staff calculations.
Table 8.Bulgaria: Monetary Accounts, 2012–21(Billions of leva, unless otherwise stated)
201220132014 1/2015201620172018201920202021
Dec.Dec.Dec.Dec.Dec.Dec.Dec.Dec.Dec.Dec.
Proj.
Monetary Survey
Net foreign assets25.328.435.040.743.344.947.750.453.256.3
Net domestic assets53.955.850.551.750.355.460.265.269.372.6
Domestic credit55.157.152.153.251.856.861.666.570.573.8
General government−0.71.20.42.40.42.12.93.52.91.3
Non-government55.855.951.650.851.454.758.762.967.572.5
Broad money (M3)61.767.268.074.078.181.986.591.597.0103.0
Currency outside banks8.59.110.211.412.813.614.114.414.815.2
Reserve money17.417.319.227.529.430.831.933.034.235.4
Deposits 2/53.258.257.862.665.468.372.377.182.387.8
Accounts of the Bulgarian National Bank
Net foreign assets29.026.830.838.140.138.745.145.151.852.4
Net foreign reserves (billions of euro)14.813.715.719.520.519.823.023.026.526.8
Net domestic assets−6.7−5.7−7.3−6.4−9.6−6.3−5.8−5.6−5.9−6.0
Net claims on government−5.7−4.3−6.7−6.0−9.1−5.8−5.3−5.0−5.3−5.3
Base money17.417.319.227.529.430.831.933.034.235.4
Currency in circulation8.59.110.211.412.813.614.114.414.815.2
Banks reserves8.98.29.116.116.717.217.818.619.420.3
Deposit money banks
Net foreign assets−3.61.64.22.64.94.64.23.73.02.3
Gross foreign assets10.013.615.310.616.216.015.615.114.413.7
Gross foreign liabilities13.712.111.18.111.411.411.411.411.411.4
Net domestic assets59.359.956.957.459.261.065.370.074.377.7
Domestic credit60.761.358.659.160.862.666.871.475.779.0
Memorandum items:(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
Base money16.7−0.411.143.07.14.53.83.43.63.7
Broad money8.48.91.18.85.64.95.55.96.06.1
Domestic non-government credit2.80.3−7.7−1.61.26.57.27.27.37.3
Domestic deposits8.39.3−0.68.24.44.55.96.66.76.7
Domestic currency17.08.60.19.24.84.96.26.97.17.0
Foreign currency−2.110.3−1.56.83.94.05.46.16.26.2
Money multiplier (ratio)3.53.93.52.72.72.72.72.82.82.9
Velocity (M3) (ratio)1.31.21.21.21.21.21.11.11.11.1
GDP (millions of leva)82,04082,16683,63488,57191,22094,43198,357102,740107,480112,480
Sources: Bulgarian National Bank, National Statistics Institute, and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Due to the revocation of the banking license of KTB, the bank is excluded as a reporting agent from the monetary statistics data starting in November 2014.

Includes deposits at central bank.

Sources: Bulgarian National Bank, National Statistics Institute, and Fund staff estimates and projections.

Due to the revocation of the banking license of KTB, the bank is excluded as a reporting agent from the monetary statistics data starting in November 2014.

Includes deposits at central bank.

Table 9.Bulgaria: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2010–16(Percent)
2010201120122013201420152016
DecDecDecDecDecDecMarch
Core indicators
Capital adequacy
Capital to risk-weighted assets17.517.516.716.921.922.222.9
Tier 1 capital to risk-weighted assets15.215.715.216.020.020.521.4
Asset quality
Nonperforming loans to total gross loans11.914.916.616.916.720.620.2
Nonperforming loans net of provisions to capital28.136.939.136.043.652.148.7
Large exposures to capital87.9112.2115.1121.167.265.465.8
Earnings and profitability
Return on assets0.90.80.70.70.91.01.4
Return on equity 1/7.97.16.86.67.67.410.5
Net interest income to gross income74.273.368.868.567.466.074.3
Noninterest expense to gross income49.150.452.153.949.548.746.2
Personnel expense to total income17.818.519.119.818.517.619.3
Trading and fee income to total income24.725.027.827.828.229.220.9
Liquidity
Liquid assets to total assets20.921.922.423.426.131.631.7
Liquid assets to short-term liabilities30.128.930.030.633.740.541.2
Liquid assets to total liabilities24.225.425.826.929.936.736.5
Encouraged indicators
Deposit-taking institutions
Capital to assets 2/10.510.810.110.311.611.612.2
Trading income to total income5.44.97.45.77.08.0−1.9
Personnel expenses to noninterest expenses36.336.636.736.837.336.141.7
Customer deposits to total (non-interbank) loans87.895.2100.2107.5115.5128.0130.2
Foreign currency denominated loans to total loans61.363.864.061.257.050.749.9
Foreign currency denominated liabilities to total liabilities58.654.851.850.149.042.743.2
Source: Bulgarian National Bank.

Return on equity is calculated with Tier I capital as denominator.

Capital to assets is based on Tier I capital.

Source: Bulgarian National Bank.

Return on equity is calculated with Tier I capital as denominator.

Capital to assets is based on Tier I capital.

The revised national accounts data for Bulgaria cover the period 2000–2015

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